Friday, January 19, 2018

Betting: January 20th

UPDATE: I'm going to be putting some half unit wagers on the OVER 34 minutes game time (which I should've done for today knowing how Bo1 affects things)

Parlay: 100 @ OPT OVER 34:00 -118, CG @ GG OVER 34:00 -119, FOX @ FLY OVER 34:00 -120, CLG @ C9 OVER 35:00 -115 (0.5 unit)  LOSS

Moneyline: 100 @ OPT OVER 34:00 -118 (0.5 unit) WIN (+0.925 unit)
Moneyline: CG @ GG OVER 34:00 -119 (0.5 unit) WIN (+0.92 unit)
Moneyline: FOX @ FLY OVER 34:00 -120 (0.5 unit) LOSS
Moneyline: CLG @ C9 OVER 35:00 -115 (0.5 unit)  LOSS


EU LCS January 20th Schedule (Week 1 Day 2):

Giants (+122) @ Vitality (-167)
Splyce (-147) @ Unicorns of Love (+108)
H2k (+303) @ Fnatic (-476)
G2 (-333) @ Roccat (+227)
Misfits (-156) @ Schalke 04 (+115)

Wagers placed:

Moneyline: Schalke 04 +115 (1 unit)

FC Schalke 04 had to emergency sub their hot shot prospect Upset yesterday which moved Vander from support to ADC and Boris, who is just Krepo renamed because they don't want to bring the name up after the allegations last season, had to play support. Schalke still looked clean and Nukeduck completely took over the game on Ryze. Nukeduck was really good last split despite not being his "best in Europe" former self but we saw shades of that today. Maybe the veteran has some more gas in the tank! Misfits were able to fight back after a really rough start against G2 but if G2 didn't give windows back into this game it would've been over a lot sooner. G2 looks to be one of the stronger teams, I had them finishing 2nd so losing to them isn't a total knock but Schalke snowballed the game really well even with a sub, I can't imagine how they'll be if Upset can play tomorrow. Schalke shouldn't be underdogs here but it is early in the season and we didn't get to see to much so I'll keep this wager tame at one unit.

Result: LOSS

Moneyline: Splyce -147 (1 unit)

I'm going to ride the UOL is overrated train as long as I possibly can. I know it's only been one game but I'm fairly certain my read on this team was spot on after watching them get absolutely roflstomped by Giants who are better than I think the public thinks but still not a great team. Going to go for a unit here but I might add one on tomorrow morning.

Result: Win (Payout: +1.68 unit)

Moneyline: Giants +122 (0.5 units)

Giants looked outstanding yesterday but it was against a team I consider one of the worst in UOL. Vitality looked decent as well but it was also against H2k who I think may be the worst team in the league. If Giants were able to destroy another bad team maybe they're slightly ahead of the bottom 3 teams and in their own we're mid tier. Historically teams that float in that 7th-8th spot can punt random games to the bad teams but I don't think that will be the case here. I also think Ruin and Djoko can actually match the strongest part of Vitality in Cabo and Gilius so I like the Giants for half a unit here but again I'll keep it tame because I don't typically like betting heavy on what I project to be two bad teams.

Result: LOSS

NA LCS January 20th Schedule (Week 1 Day 1):
Liquid (-101) @ TSM (-133)
100 Thieves (-169) @ OpTic (+124)
Clutch Gaming (-233) @ Golden Guardians (+165)
Echo Fox (-169) @ FlyQuest (+124)
CLG (-147) @ Cloud 9 (+108)

Moneyline: Cloud 9 +108 (1 unit)

In my NA LCS Preseason Predictions post  I discussed my reasons for disliking CLG and for liking C9. The top 6 teams in NA look to be very solid but I'm just much higher on C9 than I am on CLG. Jensen should absolutely destroy Huhi in the pressure game. He also has a significantly more aggressive jungler in Svenskeren which leads me to believe this could be a game where Jensen picks up where he left off with a chip on his shoulder to win an MVP award that many would argue he got snubbed on last year.

Result: WIN (+2.08 units)

Moneyline: Echo Fox -169 (2 units)

Doesn't this feel like a redemption moment for Fenix? The guy has shown flashes of brilliance in the past and I don't think this organization would have given him a shot given the history he and Dardoch had on Liquid without a good reason. Mostly this is about me thinking Echo Fox is a top 6 team and FlyQuest is one of the bottom teams. Fly is the wildcard to me. He could randomly pop off here but I think Echo Fox has the stronger lineup and are equal, if not better, at each position.

(UPDATE: I'm moving this up to 2 units from 1 because Fly will not be playing for FlyQuest and Keane will be instead. Keane is a servicable, experienced LCS mid laner but the team likely hasn't practiced with him for more than the 2 days they've said they've known about this on their website.)

Result: WIN (+3.18 units)

Moneyline: OpTic +124 (0.5 units)

This is another week one exception to the two presumably bad teams rule but I'm taking this mostly for the value. 100 Thieves might have a better lineup for the cold turkey-ish week one game but really these two teams are pretty close (I had them 10th and 8th respectively). I'm just gonna take a small flier on OpTic because the line should probably be closer together.

Result: LOSS

Moneyline: Golden Guardians +165 (0.5 units)

I actually think Clutch is the better team but one of my preseason predictions was the Golden Guardians would come out the gate swinging and start red hot and flare out come the second half. If I truly believe that I need to put my money where my mouth is so to speak and have them beating some people. Hopefully this does happen so people will be sleeping on Clutch next week.

Result: LOSS, GG looked really bad. They never made any sort of proactive plays but they did have a really bad team comp with no engage.


LCK January 20th Schedule (Week 1 Day 4):
KT Rolster (-526) @ MVP (+350)
Jin Air (+285) @ SKT (-417)

Moneyline: KT Rolster -1.5 at -152 (2 units) (this is read as KT to 2-0 gives you a -152 moneyline)

Afreeca Freecs came out the gates swinging and I don't think KT Rolster really respected them. After a long slugfest against a Kogmaw Azir TK comp they more or less did the same idea back at them the second game and then for whatever reason abandoned that plan with a weird triple carry karma mid comp with a vayne TK bot which CAN work this patch but was maybe a bit of a trial to see if they could surprise with it. Smeb had a rare bad game in that one on Camille. I think people are gonna be down on KT and while they did have a bad game I do think Afreeca looked excellent in their wins so let's not take too much away from KT. MVP got molleywhopped by Kongdoo Monster who look like a better team than last year but still aren't good. KT is going to take out their frustrations on what will effectively be a target dummy in MVP.

Result: Win (Payout: +3.32 unit)

Moneyline: SKT -1.5 at -143 (1 unit)

Similar reasons. I'm going a little lighter here because I think Jin Air is a signicifcantly better team than MVP but still not on the same level as SKT. Hopefully the Wolf jungle sub reality check for Blank lights a fire under his ass.

Result: Loss

Parlay (2 part): KT Rolster -1.5 (-152), SKT -1.5 (-143)   (1 unit)

I think SKT and KT both right the ship and 2-0 tomorrow. I have a very slight hesitation because Jin Air looked decent in their games against KSV but pissed of KT and pissed off SKT (they dropped a game) combined with some good odds for a 2 part I'll take.

Result: Win, Loss


Combinations and Parlays:
Full Slate Pick'em Parlay (0.1 unit):
SKT -417, KT -1.5 -152, C9 +108, FOX -169, CG-233, OpT +124, TSM -133, S04 +115, G2 -333, FNC -476, SPY -147, GIA +122

Result: Loss

6 team (0.2 unit):
SKT -417, KT -1.5 -152, C9 +108, FOX -169, S04 +115, SPY -147

Result: Loss

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