Saturday, January 27, 2018

Betting: January 27th (LCK / LPL / NA LCS)

LCK January 28th Schedule (Week 2 Day 5):
Jin Air (-182, -1.5 @ +163, M1 -143, M2 -139, M3 0139
@ (Over/Under 36:00, Kill Total 17.5)
BBQ Olivers (+142, +1.5 @ -227, M1 +105, M2 +107, M3 +107)

Kingzone DragonX (-769, -1.5 @ -175, M1 -333, M2 -303, M3 -303)
@ (Over/Under 36:00, Kill Total 17.5)
MVP (+470, +1.5 @ +134, M1 +210, M2 +218, M3 +218)

Moneyline: Jin Air -182 (3 units)

Moneyline: Jin Air -1.5  @ +163 (1 unit)

Jin Air are an extremely predictable team but on Patch 8.1 there really isn't a lot you can do to stop the strategy that they're good at as we've learned from the ridiculous amount of upsets that have happened. Despite our ridiculous KSV 8 unit loss yesterday we were still up for the week by sticking to our guns. I think Jin Air and BBQ will end up close to each other in the standings but I do think Jin Air is a cut above BBQ and I think this meta is perfect for the way they like to play. I think this is like 75% chance to win and maybe 50% to be a 2-0 even if they're long games so I'm going to wager in a way that if this ends up 2-1 we're still up money.

Result: LOSS

Result: LOSS

Moneyline: Kingzone DragonX -769 (8 units)

Moneyline: Kingzone DragonX -1.5 @ -175 (2 units)

You could say I made this mistake yesterday but I'm not going to shy away from this. If lightning strikes twice then I guess I deserve it. If anything, Kingzone have even more reason to stomp MVP who I think is the worst team in LCK because it will move them into first place. Kingzone are going to be heavy favorites all week long as their Week 3 matchups are ROX and KM so I could totally see them being alone in first place come next week and being 6-0 in their next 3 matches. Unfortunately for us "money gets the money" as they say. This line is obscene but also accurate so I'm doubling down.

Result: WIN (+9.04 units)
Result: WIN (+3.14 units)

LPL January 28th Schedule (Week 2 Day 6):
Vici Gaming +282 
@ (Over/Under 34:00, Kill Total 18.5)
Snake eSports -400

TopSports Gaming +560
@ (Over/Under 34:00, Kill Total 18.5)
Invictus Gaming -1000

Oh My God! +263
@ (Over/Under 34:00, Kill Total 18.5)
EDward Gaming -357

Moneyline: VG @ SS UNDER 34:00 Map 1 and 2 (two bets totaling 1 unit)
Result: WIN WIN

Moneyline: TSG @ IG UNDER 34:00 Map 1 and 2 (two bets totaling 2 units)


Moneyline: OMG @ EDG UNDER 34:00 Map 1 and 2 (two bets totaling 1 unit)

(UPDATE: I'm putting another 0.5 units on each Map 1 and 2 of the TSG @ IG series. After some research I've seen that IG have the fastest game time of any team in any major region by a long shot and TSG are 0-8 in games this season with equally short times. TL:DR IG is stomping and TSG is getting stomped.)

This looks like three tremendously lopsided games and you know what we do with big LPL favorites. THE UNDER. Upping to 1 unit totals for these.

NA LCS January 28th Schedule (Week 2 Day 2):
Echo Fox -125 @ Team Solo Mid -101
Cloud 9 -103 @ 100 Thieves -122
OpTic Gaming -125 @ FlyQuest -101
Golden Guardians +173 @ Counter Logic Gaming -227
Team Liquid -250 @ Clutch Gaming +189

This Sunday slate is full of interesting and likely close games. I'm placing wagers on three of them. Echo Fox vs TSM feels like a TSM wake up moment to me but I'm not confident enough in it to wager at these lines and OpTic vs FlyQuest should be close but I'm not sure I like the values on it.

Moneyline: Cloud 9 -103 (5 units)

100 Thieves have vastly outperformed my expectations of them but their victories have been against a weak OpTic team, a CLG that looks lost, and a longer 46 minute game that more or less became a coin flip against the stronger Team Liquid. They've shown excellent control but I really haven't seen anything that distinguishes this team. They're like the Jin Air of the NA LCS, they have their one strategy based around scaling and playing slow and steady and it's working for them but I think Jensen and Svenskeren can blow this game wide open. Another angle to this is that Licorice actually showed a great performance against Huni yesterday in a matchup I thought would for sure be exploited. Cloud 9 had a great game plan to minimize losses around the top half of the map and 100 Thieves will likely employ a similar strategy. I'm putting a lot of faith in my preseason evaluation here. Cloud 9 is an elite team that still hasn't reached their ceiling and with Licorice ahead of schedule I could see them challenging for a title. I can't imagine the same for 100 Thieves and at some point they're going to come back down to earth. I'm willing to "pay to see it" in this situation but I feel strongly that Cloud 9's combination of 4 superior players and the evidence that they're able to game plan against an elite top laner like Ssumday based on their success against Huni yesterday makes me really like the value of the line we're getting here. 100 Thieves should not be favored in this game just because Cloud 9 lost yesterday. Echo Fox is a significantly better team than 100 Thieves despite the records being similar.

Result: WIN (+9.85 units), Cloud 9 showed some excellent up-tempo Taliyah play trying to close a game out early and they were able to do so before 40 minutes. Licorice with another EXCELLENT performance on the counter pick against Ssumday. The kid is a beast.

Moneyline: CLG -227 (3 units)

You all know by now that I'm not a fan of this CLG squad but I think the Golden Guardians are in their own tier below the rest of the league and CLG absolutely needs this victory to keep up. They outclass every lane and I can't see them playing as poorly as they did yesterday in a massive throw.

Result: WIN (+4.32 units), CLG looked awful. They were down 4k to GG at one point in this game and if GG didn't have back to back to back tremendous throws they would have won this game. I know they act all calm and professional but this CLG squad is a complete dumpster fire. I'm glad we got to see this.

Moneyline: Clutch Gaming +189 (2 units)

(UPDATE: I tacked another unit onto this after the "rough start" ballooned this line up to +308, losing first blood and an early flash isn't a huge deal and Febiven was roflstomping Pobelter and Solo was way up on Impact)

This game feels close to a 50/50 match to me. Both of these teams are great and this line shouldn't be this far apart. Typically in moneyline betting you simply want to pick the winner and the strength of wager is how you declare your confidence in the pick but I think this line is just too much of a value not to put a couple units on the coin flip for a handsome payout.

Result: LOSS, Lira had an uncharacteristic bad game and the Caitlyn lane didn't get going enough and their solo lanes being ahead wasn't enough.


Parlay (2): Jin Air -1.5 @ +163, Kingzone -1.5 @ -175 (0.5 unit)

Parlay (3): Jin Air -1.5 @ +163, Kingzone -1.5 @ -175, Invictus -1.5 @ -208 (0.5 unit)

With such huge favorites I'm willing to put a couple 2 and 3 part parlays down. I know I've been trying to avoid these but this is as close to surefire as you're going to get.


Parlay (3): CG +189, CLG -227, OpTic -109 (0.2 unit)


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