Monday, October 7, 2019

Worlds 2019 - Play-In Stage Knockouts Day 2

Worlds 2019 - Play-In Stage
Knockouts Day 1

Isurus Gaming +175 (+1.5 @ -124, +2.5 @ -300)
vs
Hong Kong Attitude -244 (-1.5 @ -102, -2.5 @ +240)
(Nitrogen)

We're going to dive into the knock-outs in more depth on the podcast tomorrow night so I'll save that for there and just get straight to the matches for tomorrow.

This is an interesting match to me because this is two teams that I've been on opposite ends of the philosophical spectrum about.

I've had a bit of beef with Isurus being called the "Super Team" over and over on the broadcast but I just want to clarify something. I understand that they are the Latin American "Super Team." This is the best players possible from the combined north and south in a now combined region and they dominated. I guess I just get tired of hearing "Super Team" on the broadcast over and over because I still don't think they're particularly great. Don't get me wrong, I think Isurus are maybe the third best of the wildcard region teams currently but this team isn't quite as good as you'd think if you just listened to a broadcast of an international even they take part in.

Hong Kong Attitude are sort of on the other side of the spectrum. Touted coming into the tournament becuase they're from the LMS, the historically 5th strongest region, largely due to the "success" of Flash Wolves and one old, old AHQ team. As I've discussed a ton on this blog before, the LMS isn't what it used to be and while I do think there is an amount of parity in the league now with a few teams competing against and challenging each other at the top, the overall quality of the region has gone down, especially with the LPL poaching some of the stronger players. In other words I think HKA are a tad overrated but I think they're probably along the same level as Unicorns of Love and Flash Wolves and were the favorite to get out of the weaker Group C as the #1.

HKA are playing old school League of Legends to an extent. They want things slow and controlled, until they can deathball teamfight around the map and when they go that way they're actually a decent team. The problem is that it's much harder to play that way anymore. I'm not saying they're incapable of adjusting and shifting to a more early game or uptempo style but I am saying they got completely exploited by some relatively weak teams in this group and only got away with it because of the group they're in. Isurus had a group with two teams that play that style as well or better than HKA in Detonation FocusME and Splyce (you could argue Splyce are one of the best teams in the world at this).

Consider this a bet against Hong Kong Attitude more than an endorsement of Isurus but I actually think Isurus' group prepared them extremely well for Hong Kong Attitude's style. Isurus aren't a full on scaling team. They're willing to scrap and we saw that be rather effective against DFM and at times against Splyce. Hong Kong Attitude have better players overall but I think Seiya and Oddie could tangle with M1ssion and Crash. I never thought I'd say that if you asked me three years ago when Crash looked like a potential superstar in the LCK but here we are. I also think that this bottom lane could be extremely volatile with both supports preferring to start fights. And the top laners even shares a large chunk of each other champion pools.

Call me crazy but I actually like the underdogs here for a unit. I'm not saying I'm predicting Isurus to win but I do think the odds of that happening are much better than the number I got (+222) and slightly better than the current number of +175. I'll be keeping an eye out for game spreads and looking to hit the Isurus +2.5 or OVER 3.5 maps played.

Moneyline: Isurus Gaming +222 (1 unit)(earlier this week)

I still like the ML at +175 as I think this is much closer to a 50/50 than the market is indicating. 

I may add kill spreads later on tonight but this is it for now.


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Unicorns of Love +360 (+1.5 @ +175, +2.5 @ -175)
vs
Splyce -450 (-1.5 @ -225, -2.5 @ +145)
(5Dimes)
The Unicorns get a chance at the LEC that they didn't qualify for. That's the narrative/backstory going into this one and perhaps gives a bit of motivation to the Unicorns. As powerful as that can be, I tend to lean a lot more on film and play than the emotional sides unless it's overwhelming. I look at the tale of the tape here and things don't look good for the Unicorns. As a matter of fact, I'm kind of surprised we're getting this low of a line for Splyce but I think a lot of it has to do with history. The CIS has a storied past full of upsets and incredible tournament runs and UOL also have one of the all-time popular players in Edward. Perhaps that's inflating the line a bit. Nevertheless let's look at what we have. Keep in mind, these stats are slightly inflated because Splyce only played 4 games and won 3 of them while UOL played 6 and went 3-3.

(stats compliments of http://GOL.gg)
  • Average Game Time: UOL  35:51  /  Splyce 32:19
  • Team Gold per Minute: UOL 1734/min   /  Splyce 1902/min
  • Team Gold Differential per minute:  UOL -12  /  Splyce +228
  • Gold Diffential at 15 minutes: UOL +231   /   Splyce  +3098
  • First Blood:  UOL 33%  /  Splyce 25% 
  • Team Damage per minute:  UOL 1525/min   /   Splyce 2032/min

Splyce are a tad amplified by the long game against DFM but the picture stands. Vision scores are relatively similar but one thing I need to emphasize. Typically longer games have a higher team damage per minute, once multiple characters get to full build, team fights tend to have a lot more damage dealt. Splyce have a commanding nearly 500 team damage per minute advantage AND they have a shorter game time by a staggering 3:32. Splyce have better economy as well. Splyce also only got first blood for a head start in one of their games so that's not skewing these numbers either. 

TL:DR - Splyce are significantly better. 

The question is how much better. Unicorns of Love have showed us a few of their tricks and unless they've got more aces up their sleeve AND the ability to execute with them it's going to be tough sledding. The Heimerdinger ADC, which, coincidentally, is something Splyce have experience playing against and the Kayle are going to be on Splyce's radar. One thing I give Splyce a lot of credit for is being well-prepared and disciplined. I imagine this series will look a lot like Clutch/Splyce did yesterday. Splyce aren't going to be caught of guard or surprised and the whole "Euro chaos" effect is null and void against them because they've seen it all. I'm going to bet Splyce similarly to how I bet Clutch today except I think Splyce are better and more consistent than Splyce and Royal are similarly rated to UOL. I think UOL can show better than Royal Youth, who I thought were a little disapointing but this will generally be the same result. UOL are fighters and frankly it wouldn't surprise me to see something weird but I can't be afraid of that and I can't justify a wager the other way. I'm firing heavy on Splyce. I could understand the counterargument of "this team took two games off of Clutch who look outstanding." I think best of fives are a completely different beast. It wouldn't surprise me to see UOL take a game here but I think the overwhelming likelihood to me is a 3-1 Splyce victory or a 3-0 Splyce victory and I'm willing to hammer it.

Map Spread: Splyce -1.5 maps @ -225 (5 units)

Map Spread: Splyce -2.5 maps @ +145 (1 unit)



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Parlays:

Parlay (2): Isurus +1.5 maps + Splyce -1.5 maps @ total +182 (0.25 units)



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