October 7th (Worlds 2019 - Play-In Knockouts Day 1)

Worlds 2019 - Play-In Stage

Knockouts Day 1

DAMWON Gaming -5000 (-1.5 @ -1800, -2.5 @ -400)

vs

Lowkey eSports +2500 (+1.5 @ +1020, +2.5 @ +310)

There isn't a lot to talk about here other than whether or not I think Lowkey can take a game here and the answer, in my opinion which I assume you're here for, is absolutely not. Be my guest if you like lottery tickets. DAMWON do tend to mess around a bit but this Lowkey team nearly got shutout by a Hong Kong Attitude squad that isn't even in the same galaxy as DAMWON. I got burned betting the over kill totals for DAMWON thinking they'd be messing around but they immediately got to business in their day two action. I'm going to be betting the kill spread which is a tremendous -10.5 currently but I legitimately would be shocked to see Lowkey get more than a handful of kills in these games unless DAMWON wants them to.

Kill Spread: Map 1 DAMWON -10.5 kills @ +100 (1 unit)

Kill Spread: Map 2 DAMWON -10.5 kills @ +100 (1 unit)

(Nitrogen)

------------------------

Royal Youth +230 (+1.5 @ +100, +2.5 @ -300)

vs

Clutch Gaming -270 (-1.5 @ -130, -2.5 @ +240)

(5 Dimes)

Perhaps a more interesting matchup than our first series, we get to see the team I rated as my top non-major region team going into this tournament against North America's #3 seed. Clutch are a bit inconsistent, as we saw in their first two games against Unicorns of Love but I think once they settled in they looked much more like themselves. Royal played a surprisingly interesting, although not nearly as close as it looked, game against DAMWON and are a solid team from a solid region. I think Royal are about the same as UOL if not a tad better albeit a bit less weird. I'm pretty sure Clutch's inconsistency will rear its ugly head at some point in this series but I find it very difficult to not hand this to Clutch. 

As good as I think the TCL has been the past year or so inparticular, I think we're going to see the overall quality of the major regions, even the weakest of the four, shine through here and we're getting reasonable value on it. Armut is going to have a tremendously difficult time with Huni if he plays like he did after the first game or two in groups. He's the best player in this series and is one that can blow a game wide open. 

Anybody that's looking for metrics, Royal actually have the advantage in damage per gold BUT Clutch's overall economy is superior. They boast 120 more team gold per minute, a significant difference in gold differential (partially skewed by Royal's extra loss), and Clutch have placed more wards per minute by a substantial amount AND cleared more wards by both percentage and per minute.

For those that are new, I tend to speak about series in terms of fractional games. What I mean by that is if this best of five were played multiple times, it's the average amount of games Royal would win. In this case I think we're looking at something like a 3 to 0.8 games. Royal are good enough and Clutch are inconsistent enough that I think they'd get games more than most people would think. I think the most likely outcome here is a Clutch 3-1 or 3-0 so we're going to divide our wager up accordingly. 

Looking into Clutch's kill differentials in winning games in the LCS Regionals AND play-in groups

LCS Regionals: 9, 4, 11, 14 (to 0), 10, 3, 0, 13, 3 

Worlds Play-Ins: 16, 9, 8

It's a bit of a mixed bag but with the line set at -5.5 I think we're fairly safe to take the kill total spread for a light wager for all three games to be insulated if they lose one. It's a bit risky so tail at your own caution but that's where I'll be.

Spread: Clutch -1.5 maps @ -110 (3 units)

Spread: Clutch -2.5 maps @ +269 (0.5 units)

Kill Spread: Map 1 Clutch -5.5 kills @ -111 (0.5 units)

Kill Spread: Map 2 Clutch -5.5 kills @ -111 (0.5 units)

Kill Spread: Map 3 Clutch -5.5 kills @ -111 (0.5 units)

(All lines found at Nitrogren)