Friday, October 4, 2019

October 5th (Worlds 2019 - Play-in Stage Day 4)

Day 3 was a perfect example of why people that believe in value betting and true systems are the way to go can profit in these kinds of spots and over a larger sample.  As a matter of fact this entire play-in stage has been far more profitable for that than I could have anticipated. I didn't end up on the full dog system like I have for Worlds past this time around but we did hit on a sweet +642 with DFM yesterday for our biggest cash of the tournament so far. So why are we seeing so many upsets? I think there a number of factors at work and each game has different levels of each of these. It's not any one thing but often a combination.

Travel/time zone/body clock challenges are a real thing that perhaps favored some teams over others.

Strategic differences like how teams tend to play or prioritize certain styles or champions over others can be a huge edge until other temas figure you out.

"Feeling out" period is similar to the above strategic differences but four single games is not a lot of time to feel out an opponent and these teams often avoid scrimming each other.

Actual variance whether it's a 50/50 smite steal, a coinflip trade or skirmish, an ADC getting a crit, etc.

These are just a few of the factors to keep in mind but perhaps the biggest point I'm trying to make in bringing this up is that it's more or less impossible to derive conclusions about these teams from a four game sample size. You can certainly come to some basic ones (like DAMWON looking better than everyone) but for the most part this doesn't tell us much. I like to equate it to rolling snake eyes twice. It's certainly a possibility that happens a set amount of times and while we're never really surprised to see that when rolling a pair of dice we appear shocked when it happens in an event like this.

We can prognosticate and predict all we want but this is ultimately each of these teams playing four (sometimes a few more) games against competition they haven't faced before on a stage they haven't been on. For example, maybe MEGA only beats Lowkey one out of every twenty games and we just happened to see the one. Maybe UOL only beats Clutch two out of fifty games and we happened to see the two. I'm not living and dying by those numbers it's just an example but the point I'm making is to not jump to too many conclusions about short tournament results. Don't rule out that you saw an outcome that was on the margains of probability.


Worlds 2019 - Play-In Stage - Day 4

DAMWON -1610 vs Royal Youth +900
Hong Kong Attitude -260 vs MEGA eSports +210
DAMWON -2000 vs Flamengo eSports +1100
Lowkey eSports -270 vs MEGA eSports +210
Flamengo eSports +130 vs Royal Youth -160
Hong Kong Attitude -120 vs Lowkey eSports -110

Some of these numbers are getting out of control for best of ones but I'll be avoiding betting against DAMWON and just passing their matches. This team is utterly stomping WHILE playing disrespectful and playing with their food. They don't belong here. I'd be shocked if DAMWON dropped more than a game in a 50+ game sample size to any of these teams but I wouldn't fault you for taking these dogs at these numbers.

I'm only going to have four wagers for tomorrow's matches for the time being.

Over/Under: DAM/Royal OVER 25.5 kills @ -111 (1.5 units)

Over/Under: DAM/Flam OVER 24.5 kills @ -125 (1.5 units)
(both from Nitrogen)

I either tweeted about this or spoke privately on Discord or DMs to somebody about this but I said after day one that I'd be all over the DAMWON game OVER kill totals. The amount of disrespect this team showed in their first two matches wasn't shocking or anything but was a sign to me that they're not taking these games (or their opponents) very seriously and are very VERY likely to play with their food or play "fun" games. The "European vacation" continues tomorrow in what I'm assuming will either be high kill games or complete and utter stomps and I'm willing to bet they run the score up regardless.

Moneyline: Hong Kong Attitude -120 vs Lowkey (1 unit)(5D)

Consider this a combination of double regression to the mean and Lowkey being "figured out." Hong Kong Attitude prefer not to fight you early if they can help it, just like a lot of the LMS teams and Lowkey bring the fight to you whether it's correct to or not. I have very little respect for the VCS. It's honestly glorified solo queue. These teams don't really think further than the fight that's in front of them and they have never seen a fight they can say no to. I think now that HKA have seen this and are another game comfortable with it they'll be able to make the disciplined decisions and just stall until Lowkey beat themselves or make a fatal error. I'd compare this to what we saw in the tiebreaker Mammoth vs UOL today. Teams that don't know anything but fighting are completely dead in the water if they don't get ahead. Now I could understand taking the dogs here but at shared minus money it's just a matter of preference. I don't think HKA are that good and one of my colleagues Kalvin actually mentioned that in a group where none of the teams are good you can't rely on the "best" team to do what a normal "best" team does. There's some legitimacy to that but I'm going to be taking HKA here. Another day of experience, predictable Lowkey, adaptations to be made, the superior team at close to even, and some double regression if you believe in that sorta thing (HKA due for another win, Lowkey due for another loss). Gimme the favorites for a unit.

Moneyline: Royal Youth -160 vs Flamengo (1 unit)(5D)

Another combination regression, "figured out," plus better team wager here. I had Royal Youth as my top small region team going into worlds and I actually think there's a reasonable case for them as the 15th or 16th best team in this tournament. They had a really rough day one as the Brazilians caught them off guard (I'm not sure how brTT Draven caught you off guard but whatever) and ran away with the game on them. I think the Brazilians are good and another one of the smaller region teams I like but I also think they played much closer to their ceiling while Royal played closer to their floor. Expect adjustments to be made and some regression moving both directions for us here. I'll lay the -160 with Royal for a unit. I'm not afraid of a weird day one. They happen.



Parlay (2): HKA ML vs Lowkey + Royal ML vs Flamengo @ -102 (0.25 units)

1 comment:

  1. No Mega??? I think they find a way to close it out this time. And they are underdogs.