Saturday, October 12, 2019

October 12th: Worlds 2019 - Main Event Group Stage Day 2

Day 1 Takeaways:

I don't like to draw a lot of conclusions from a single day of best of ones. That'd be ignorant. However, in a short tournament like this it's important to make your adjustments quickly if you see an issue that you don't think will change in the same time.

1) It appears the LCK and LPL teams are more or less daring the other teams to snowball on them through the way they're playing and drafting. It's not surprising as that's how these teams have typically handled tournaments but it's worth noting when trying to anticipate game scripts.

2) GAM looks outclassed and too used to teams never saying no to a fight. When you pick a composition that isn't capable of starting a fight and don't snowball ridiculously hard you're going to have trouble against high level teams. Unfortunately it looks like GAM are once again going to be a victim of their domestic playstyle in much the same way Korea was at last years tournament.

3) DAMWON's sloppiness reared it's ugly head in game one but I still think most times they win that game.

4) Invictus appear to be playing the slower style that they preferring during the end of Summer and playoffs with Leyan in the lineup which I think is better for them as a team right now however takes away some of their potential edge on the field overall. Last year Invictus were so good because they were playing at a different speed than everyone else was AND had excellent players. Now they're just another team like some of these others to me. Could they win this tournament? Absolutely but I think it's difficult to differentiate them from other elite teams now without their blazing fast, uptempo style in play anymore.

5) For as good as they are, FunPlus are exploitable and we saw that today. I still think FPX are going to be fine getting out of this group but as I've been saying, they're very linear and their big picture strategy isn't quite as strong as most of the teams here.

6) AHQ and Clutch looked surprisingly good to me even in losses. JTeam I had higher expectations for and they looked great as well.


Worlds 2019 - Main Event Group Stage Day 2

(listed odds are from Bet365/Nitrogen, obviously shop around as availability varies)

SK Telecom -185 vs Royal Never Give Up +160

Royal were relatively clean yesterday but SKT were absolutely dominant and, in my opinion, against a stronger Fnatic team. I like SK Telecom in this spot but I'm not willing to lay the money as this is too rich. I do however like the UNDER 25 kills with two disciplined and macro focused teams. Typically when you have two team fight centric squads you see slower early games as they try to gain small edges as their comps come online. I could definitely see that between these two especially with the champion pools they appear to be focused on right now.

Over/Under:  UNDER 25 total kills @ -115 (1 unit)


Fnatic -300 vs Clutch +250

I thought Clutch looked pretty good outside of a few individual mistakes. As a team they were pretty smart but it looked a bit like nerves got the best of Damonte on that top lane teleport situation. I'm honestly surprised by Clutch but I do think they're simply outmatched here. I could see wanting to fire on this moneyline for Clutch but I'm just going to pass the game.

No wager


Team Liquid +115 vs Invictus Gaming -135

Ahhh first MSI rematch! As I mentioned in my day one takeaways above, I'm having a tough time differentiating Invictus from these other top teams now that they seem content to play a more traditional, straight forward style. I don't think it'd be better for them to up the tempo either as we saw how disastrous that was with Leyan when they tried it earlier in his Summer tenure. So weirdly I think Invictus are putting themselves in the best place to do well in this tournament but I also just think it homogenizes the field a bit. I think IG are just like any of these other mid tier teams now because they no longer have the stylistic advantage they simply have beastly players.

If Impact is able to play like he did yesterday I actually like Liquid here. They have a stronger bottom lane and I'd argue a stronger jungler to try to make up for solo lanes that might struggle. Obviously analysis is never that linear or simple but I think you get the point. Liquid probably shouldn't have won that game against DAMWON and it took a bit of a throw and an outstanding play from Impact to get it done but you know what? They got it done. I like Liquid for a unit even against the Invictus revenge spot. I just think that if IG are going to play like everyone else and rely on their players that it takes a huge part of their edge away. Not at all saying they're bad, this is still TheShy and Rookie we're talking about but I think Liquid are probably a stronger macro team and are most certainly more disciplined. Gimme the dogs!

Moneyline: Team Liquid +115 (1 unit)


AHQ eSports +450 vs DAMWON -600

AHQ impressed me this morning and showed the ability to exploit a linear team but I also think DAMWON sort of punted a game they could have won and got a tiny bit unlucky with Liquid getting double infernals to start. Still, they deserved to lose and their sloppy macro continues to rear it's ugly head from time to time. DAMWON and FPX are surprisingly similar teams to me. They're often a bit sloppy and just rely on their overwhelming solo lane ability to correct a lot of errors. If AHQ can abuse that we could be looking at a completely upside down group here. I'm avoiding this game because I'm not entirely sure how these two will approach each other and if it'll be a bloody game or not.

No wager


Griffin +130 vs G2 eSports -150

We're going to finally get to see these two for the first time this tournament. I'm going with the underdogs for a couple reasons. Firstly, now seeing SKT's form and willingness to think outside the box and knowing Griffin likely prepared a lot with them I think they'll be similarly prepared even with the coaching change. I also think there's a chance the new coach takes some more risks and opens it up a little. Stylistically you'd think G2 stomp this as they pose unique approaches almost constantly but I think Griffin could just as easily have something cooked up. I just think this line is a bit off and that this should be closer to G2 -120 or -130. I'll take the dogs for a unit.

Moneyline: Griffin +130 (1 unit)


Cloud 9 -245 vs Hong Kong Attitude +205

This one is surprisingly tough. I think Hong Kong Attitude are totally exploitable based on what we saw in play-in's but I also think Cloud 9 have some glaring issues as well. I'm assuming Cloud 9 attack Hong Kong's addiction to scaling in some way and try to run away with this game in some sort of uptempo approach if they're confident enough to do it but I'm just not sure how this shakes out. I'm currently leaning to the OVER 24.5 kills but otherwise avoiding this one even though I think Cloud 9 take it. I'm just not sure how these two teams are going to look and I think they're two of the weaker teams in the entire tournament.

No wager

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