Betting: October 3rd (Worlds 2019 Play-In Stage Day 2)

Worlds 2019 - Play-In Stage Day 2

We hit on UOL and nearly hit on DFM to open our day yesterday. Weird slate today.

Royal Youth +580 vs DAMWON Gaming -1000

MEGA eSports +335 vs Hong Kong Attitude -460
DAMWON Gaming -1100 vs Flamengo eSports +620

MEGA eSports +300 vs Lowkey eSports -390
Royal Youth -240 vs Flamengo +180

Hong Kong Attitude -140 vs Lowkey eSports +110

Royal Youth are my pick for the strongest "emerging" region team this year. The Turkish Champions League has been been upping the level of competition seemingly every year for the past few years. It's not longer dominated by one team at a time but Royal Youth managed to pull away with some impressive results regardless. It's unfortunate that they're placed into a group with DAMWON who I think almost definitely make Top 8 and potentially even more if things go well. I think the gap is just too far apart for me even to take a team I like as +580 in a best of one.

MEGA eSports represent the League Southeast Asia Tour, a tournament series with a shortened regular season and playoff bracket. The LST plays fewer games overall than most regions which means there's less film on them but also less stage experience. MEGA won't be lacking in that department however as G4 and Lloyd return for yet another World Championship. It should be noted that MEGA were actually the #2 from the LST going into playoffs. #1 seed WIN lost to the #5 seed in the semifinals and MEGA proceeded to win 3-0 (although they were down in game one). I hate to say it but the level of competition is.... not great so it's really tough to judge MEGA and I find it difficult to put them anywhere but the bottom few teams in the entire event.

Hong Kong Attitude are the #2 seed from the LMS, a region with a long history of upsets compliments of their most famous squad the Flash Wolves. We discussed it on the podcast but the LMS isn't what it used to be. The region has taken, in my opinion, a step down in quality although it has been more interesting to watch as more new talent emerges and new teams rise to the top. The league has a lot of parity outside of JTeam who utterly dominated this split with a perfect 12-0 match score. I'm lower on the LMS than a lot of people but that doesn't mean I don't think they emerge from this group with the #1 seed. As a matter of fact I feel pretty strongly that they do. The question is how.

Lowkey are the #2 seed from the VCS. Most people are familiar with the Gigabyte Marines and that name has a lot of brand value based on some previous iterations and their uniquely aggressive playstyle from years ago. Well go ahead and welcome back the aggression for GAM but they aren't the only VCS team at this tournament. Lowkey were the #3 seed going into playoffs, got smashed, and then climbed through the losers bracket to defeat #2 seed Team Flash to earn a spot at Worlds. This region is aggressive. I'm talking like clown fiesta solo queue aggressive but they're not very good. GAM are the class of the VCS and I don't even like their chances at this tournament outside of catching people off guard stylistically. Lowkey are many steps down from them and it's evident. I don't have a lot of faith in Lowkey but perhaps their style can catch people off guard in a best of one setting.

Lastly we have Flamengo from CBLOL in Brazil. The Brazilian representative has some history of upsets, most notably the aptly named Kabum! against Alliance many years ago. CBLOL is a league I used to follow bit more than I do now but from what I have watched researching for this tournament it's a respectable level of play that I've come to expect from Brazil. There's a fair amount of parity and competition in the region and they thrive playing on the big stage in front of absolutely rabid fans (if you don't believe me check it out). I have Brazil maybe half a tier down from the TCL, LMS, and CIS and about OCE, SEA, VCS, LST, and LJL. This team is good and has a lot of familiar veterans that are still kicking ass at a high level. Unfortunately they're in a group with my top wildcard region team Royal Youth and one of my Top 8 selections in DAMWON. Don't hold this group against Flamengo, they might surprise some people. The battle between Flamengo and Royal Youth should be fascinating.

DAMWON I don't need to say much more about I'm really high on them and have futures in on them to win the whole tournament if things go well.

I'll be placing only two wagers tomorrow and they're primarily for value.

Moneyline: MEGA eSports +329 vs Lowkey (1 unit)

Consider this an expression of my distrust in Lowkey. Quite frankly unless its GAM, I don't think any teams from the LST or VCS should be favored by this much over another similar team. I think MEGA might be the worst team of the 24 in this entire tournament BUT Lowkey aren't -300 or more better than ANYBODY.


Moneyline: Hong Kong Attitude -140 vs Lowkey (2 units)

I don't think as highly of the LMS as a lot of people but I still think it's the best or second best of the wildcard regions and HKA have some good players and get to practice against much better teams than Lowkey do. Unless the VCS's aggro style really throws people for a loop I simply don't see Lowkey winning any matches other than MEGA. This is a good number as I saw -150 or more in most places and I think HKA are a tier or two better. I'm limiting this to two units because it's best of one and because even though I think HKA are pretty good, I still don't trust a lot of the teams in this tournament to do what they're supposed to do to take care of business.