Sunday, October 13, 2019

October 14th: Worlds 2019 - Main Event Group Stage Day 3

Day 2 Takeaways:

Another day, another set of data points. Some things I think were relevant takeaways.

1) Hong Kong Attitude are really bad. 
Cloud 9 aren't exactly one of the stronger teams in this tournament, as a matter of fact I only think they're only in the next tier up because the metagame is a good fit for them and they're a major region team. Cloud 9 took the Heimerdinger and a non-marksman comp into the Garen/Yuumi combo. They're never going to be able to kill the Garen with the setup they had. They didn't even get a Morellonomicon. So on one hand you could look at this comp and say "The fact that C9 won should be impressive" but to me this more emphasizes just how outclassed HKA are in this group stage. I think Cloud 9 will be able to hide their poor bottom lane in this metagame with all of weird non-marksman picks available but I'm having a lot of doubts if they struggled this much in draft and play against one of the clear worst teams in the tournament.

2) I don't think we should hold the loss to G2 against Griffin.
I was interested to see Griffin starting Sword and thought maybe they had something special cooked up which was exciting but they just tried to play a tempo composition with three winning lanes. I don't really know how else to say it but Jankos just totally gamed Tarzan in this game inparticular. Sword got punished. Not a whole lot he can do against Elise/Ornn in that situation besides not be in that situation in the first place and that was more or less unavoidable given that his job in this game was to shove and punish Ornn. Great pathing by Jankos really screwed up the timing here. Sword probably thought he was fine for at least another 20-30 seconds based on typical patterns. In short I'm impressed that G2 played Griffin more or less straight up and handled them. I'm also not holding this against Griffin. They're going to stomp every other team in this group.

3) I still don't know what to think of DAMWON.
Sometimes their macro looks good and other times it looks abysmal. They've been like this all year. I'm more skeptical than most are I think but DAMWON have good enough players that they might get out of this group anyway.

4) SKT weren't the cleanest in that game at all and still won.
It was so weird to me that SKT didn't setup their split push sooner. They continued to try to team fight with AP Twisted Fate into a full team fight RNG comp. They still pulled it out regardless which emphasizes SKT's strength. RNG couldn't really do much once that got started but they looked pretty solid too. Two disciplined teams that look solid. Just looking for SKT to recognize their win conditions and play to them more deliberately.

5) I'm not worried about Team Liquid.
They made one critical mistake sending Impact bottom after dragon. They lost leverage on mid lane and gave up all of their baron vision.  Doublelift communicated exactly this on Twitter after the game. Easy mistake to correct, they know what they did. Team Liquid look really good. They were standing toe to toe with Invictus just like they did at MSI. I'm beginning to think we might see Invictus and Liquid get out of this group but we'll see, lot's of games left.

6) Neither Clutch or Fnatic did anything to improve standing with me.
Fnatic made a ton of mistakes and gave Clutch a good chance to win this game and they couldn't. I know Garen/Yuumi scales crazy well but it was a lot of sloppy mistakes on both sides. Fnatic early, and Clutch in the middle.


Worlds 2019 - Main Event Group Stage Day 3

(listed odds are from Nitrogen, obviously shop around as availability varies)

DAMWON +135 vs Invictus -180

This match might decide the group. With Invictus, Liquid, and DAMWON all showing well it's anybody's chance. These matchups will be crucial. Invictus have looked surprisingly disciplined. Honestly they look like a completely different team than we saw all Summer. For those that didn't follow them, they somewhat shifted to this more traditional style earlier in the Summer during a lot of substitutions after realizing they couldn't keep doing the uptempo, pacing based playmaking they'd been famous for with the lack of chemistry with the new guys. It took them awhile to get used to playing a more straightforward style of League but they look solid now. It's not perfect but it's looking much better than they did the second half of the year. Meanwhile DAMWON have been a little odd looking but mostly themselves.

I'm fascinated to see how this goes because this is two teams that, in their current forms, are very VERY similar and are constructed in much the same way. The solo lane matchups in this game are going to be riveting. TheShy vs Nuguri and Rookie vs ShowMaker. HYPE!

I see next to no edge here for either side. There are people that would tell you Jackeylove and Baolan have a massive advantage in the bottom lane potentially but I think a lot of this match will depend on the weakside vs strongside distribution and the draft. Nuclear and Beryl are extremely good at playing weakside and minimizing losses so I'm not sure how much of an advantage we could be talking about for the IG bottom lane.

I'm going to be on the underdogs for a half unit here almost entirely because I have these two evenly matched and that this should be even money.

Moneyline: DAMWON +135 (1 unit)


AHQ eSports +305 vs Team Liquid -431

I haven't been impressed with AHQ so far. That's not to say they look bad but it looks like a lot of these teams can just wait for them to beat themselves. That's what DAMWON did today after a wild early fight. I'm not completely ruling them out like I am HKA but I'm on the brink. They look reluctant to fight or push any edges they have. AHQ don't look like they know how to play with leverage and this is something they struggled with at times during their domestic playoffs and towards the end of the Summer in the VODs I watched. I think Liquid have looked excellent besides the one mistake they made against IG this morning.

I'm not saying this is automatic but Liquid should win this game it's just a matter of how that happens. The kill total sits at 24.5 which is rather low and I have to think that AHQ recognize that they're being a bit too reluctant to fight. If you think they overcorrect then the over could be a good spot but as it is I'm going to roll with the under. Liquid should be able to cleanly take care of business here as AHQ have lost decisively on the map with two different looking drafts. I'm just not sure how much depth they have.

Over/Under: UNDER 24.5 total kills @ -115 (1 unit)(5Dimes)


FunPlus Phoenix -357 vs Splyce +259

I know I bet GAM against Splyce almost entirely based on stylistic tendencies but Splyce were intelligent and didn't play GAM's game. I'll give them credit for that but that's about it. GAM look like they don't belong in this tournament as long as teams recognize to just not fight into them. It looks like they're just too used to teams in the VCS not knowing how to say "no." I said going into the group stage that I wasn't very high on Splyce and they made a lot of fundamental mistakes in the play-in stage against competition that isn't remotely close to as good as that in the main event. FunPlus were exposed in their first game and while I'm dumping on Splyce a bit it wouldn't surprise me to see them have a game plan that follows the blueprint JTeam laid out to beat FPX but I also think FPX now know how teams might want to approach them. I said going into this tournament that FunPlus were the most exploitable of the top tier teams and we saw why BUT this is also a team that's been "solved" or "figured out" all year long and just played through it anyway.

I expect FunPlus to bounce back here. Splyce might have a good gameplan I'm just questioning their execution at this point and FunPlus are a completely different beast than GAM. I also am willing to say now that I think JTeam are probably a better team than Splyce. I'm not saying that just because of one game but because I may have undervalued them on the podcast. It's worth noting that FunPlus were in control until one botched teamfight turned into a baron and the game just got away from them from there. Not going to hold this against FPX too much.

So the question here is whether we think FunPlus win by enough. If you want to compare Splyce to a some LPL competition maybe you could look at RNG or BiliBili as a more upgraded version of themselves stylistically. In the LPL Summer Finals we saw four games that went under the kill total of 24. In only one of those games did FunPlus win by a large kill margin. In their playoff match against BiliBili they opened up a few larger kill leads. I'm just using this as a guide not a reasoning.

Personally I think Splyce are severely outclassed in this game and I can't help but think FunPlus are going to lay a beatdown. I'm not sure Splyce have an advantage in any lane. If you consider JTeam, RNG, and BiliBili (the most recent data points) as stronger than Splyce and that FunPlus easily could have run away with that game on day one then you can see why I'm contemplating the kill spread here. I also think that better teams prevail the longer a tournament goes on and that day one is the most likely day for upsets as teams don't know what to expect and are feeling each other out a bit. You could say that about the first meeting between teams in general as well though.

I'm going with FunPlus to dominate this match and I'm going to lay the kill spread. Splyce are being slightly overvalued here based on their play-in performances and game against GAM and I don't think any of those things are something to be impressed enough by to up their stock. FunPlus are being slightly undervalued because they botched a team fight and lost to a solid JTeam squad that snowballed it into a baron and eventually the game. FunPlus are going to smash here. I want to like the kill total here but FunPlus tend to fight a lot when they're in their element and you end up with a lot of 20-7 type scorelines. If you like Splyce to stay competitive in this game then I like the under but I don't think that will be the case.

Kill Spread: FunPlus -7.5 kills @ -120 (1 unit)


JTeam -189 vs GAM eSports +134

This wager is going to be more of an indictment of GAM than and endorsement of JTeam but their victory over FunPlus is nothing to scoff at. Splyce laid out a perfect plan for how to beat this GAM team and although GAM did themselves no favors drafting a team that struggles to engage, I think the idea is pretty clear; DON'T PLAY GAM'S GAME! Splyce ran them around the map and even took a few engages and won straight up. GAM got a little too used to the constant fighting domestically and disciplined squads like JTeam are going to run them around. GAM will likely fix at least part of their issues (engage) in the draft but I expect JTeam to take care of business here.

Moneyline: JTeam -160 (1.5 units)(5Dimes)

Kill Spread: JTeam -4.5 kills @ -107 (0.5 units)


Hong Kong Attitude +345 vs Griffin -654

As mentioned above losing to G2 is nothing to be ashamed of. I actually liked the draft look from Griffin, the idea being to snowball and force them to fight their way into tempo play, something they were reluctant to do a lot of the year but Jankos was simply brilliant in setting G2 up to outscale. Hong Kong Attitude are by far the worst team in the main event and I don't think they have a chance here even in a best of one. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see Griffin shutout HKA here. Griffin absolutely smash non-elite teams cleanly and decisively and I think that's what we're going to get here. It's a big number but we'll lay the kill spread. I don't hate the under either but hard to tell if HKA are going to go full crazy in an attempt to steal one or if Griffin will style a bit even though that'd be out of character for them. We'll stick with the spread for now.

Kill Spread: Griffin -8.5 kills @ -120 (1 unit)


G2 eSports -476 vs Cloud 9 +292

I don't know what the hell Cloud 9 were thinking with this draft and honestly they should have lost. They had no way to kill a Garen/Yuumi combo and the game went late. If it wasn't for HKA's ineptitudes in fights Cloud 9 probably would've dropped a game already. Obviously they could fix the draft issues and while I think this meta could be good for Cloud 9 since they can hide their poor bottom lane BUT Cloud 9 the cheeselords are about to run into a team that's tried just about everything under the sun. There's also the NA/EU rivalry. I'm not going to spend much time on this. G2 are going to utterly destroy Cloud 9. How? I'm not sure. This could turn into a style fest but G2 look like they're just playing disciplined and clean now, they don't want to mess up their chance so I'd expect a clean win here. I have no idea why this line is as close as it is even for a best of one. I'm not going to look a gift horse in the mouth.

Kill Spread: G2 eSports -7.5 @ -118 (2 units)



Favorites won every game yesterday and while I think one might not tomorrow we'll have some fun with a four leg parlay for a small amount. Degens only!

"Favorites" Parlay (4): 
Liquid ML + FunPlus ML + Griffin ML + G2 ML @ +131 (0.1 units)

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