Thursday, October 11, 2018

Betting: October 12th (Worlds 2018 Main Event Group Stage Day 3)

Yesterday we hit on almost half of our small and larger parlays as well as all but our Vitality pick which looked like we had in the bag. Great day for us let's keep it going!

KT Rolster -1111 vs MAD Team +615
Team Liquid +141 vs EDward Gaming -182
Invictus Gaming -213 vs Fnatic +164
100 Thieves +135 vs G-Rex -172
Royal Never Give Up -714 vs Team Vitality +453
Cloud 9 +273 vs Gen.G eSports -385


KT Rolster vs MAD Team

By now you know how I feel about KT Rolster. MAD Team had an admirable showing but this team just isn't quite up to the rest of the field. I don't think they're particularly bad but I can say with close to certainty that we would have rather had any number of other teams here. I'll be taking the under for kills and total time here as this should be a complete shallacking.

PROP: UNDER 29:00 @ -114 (1 unit)

PROP: UNDER 20.5 total kills @ -122 (1 unit)


Team Liquid vs EDward Gaming

Call me crazy or an optimist but I actually think Team Liquid have a reasonable shot at taking this game down. EDG are potent and intimidating but they're far from perfect and their biggest weakness is that they aren't a particularly good macro team. I think Xmithie is a smart enough jungler and the individual players on TL are strong enough to sustain the early aggression by EDG and wait for EDG to make a fatal mistake. Secondarily I actually think Team Liquid could win this as the proactive squad too if they have the right game plan. I'm expecting some sort of pocket pick here potentially. Maybe a Tristana or something along those lines but EDG have shown fault even when they haven't been styling on people and I think TL will take at least one of the games in this head to head.

Moneyline: Team Liquid +141 (1 unit)


Invictus Gaming vs Fnatic

Fnatic looked great in their win yesterday while Invictus looked a little shaky so it might come as a surprise (or not) that I'm siding with Invictus here. Fnatic haven't really faced any teams with a mid laner that is actually better than Caps often enough to know what to do when he loses. Jackeyboy can also hang with Rekkles so that other secondary advantage is also nullified. I think this is going to come down to Invictus just running Fnatic over. From a betting standpoint the CORRECT side here is to take Fnatic at these odds since I think the actual matchup is closer than these odds but I'm actually going to put a unit on both Invictus -213 (usually a number a bit rich for my liking), as well as the UNDER on both kills and total time. I'd caution you not to tail me on this one but I'm being transparent where my money is on this one for you all. This is greedy and a tad arrogant. I think Fnatic will have a much better shot the second time around once they experience just how inane Invictus' blitz is.

Moneyline: Invictus Gaming -213 (1 unit)

PROP: UNDER 34:00 total time @ -125 (1 unit)

PROP: UNDER 21.5 total kills @ -114 (1 unit)


100 Thieves vs G-Rex

I know NA fans don't want to hear it but I think 100 Thieves are either the worst or second worth team in this main event. They simply lack the players to hang at this level in my opinion and perhaps I was too high on them. Teamwork and macro game matters but when you just get run over individually there isn't much you can do sometimes. G-Rex looked aggressive early in their game and just made a few crucial errors one of which you could argue was unlucky being spotted by the red trinket for a fight that would eventually win the game but they had the early lead to potentially run away with and just botched it. By this logic you could say "Oh well 100 Thieves does that all the time they wait for you to mess up!" and that's true but G-Rex did this against Invictus yesterday. That's right they actually hung around pound for pound with Invictus for a good chunk of that game before breaking down. I think G-Rex jump out to a lead and can close it this time around. I like the UNDER as well as the G-Rex moneyline for a unit each. I'll like 100 Thieves more the next time around I think once both of these teams are potentially eliminated from contention and once 100 Thieves get a feel for how fast this could be.

Moneyline: G-Rex -172 (1 unit)

PROP: UNDER 33:00 @ -114 (1 unit)


Royal Never Give Up vs Team Vitality

Vitality lost a heartbreaker yesterday that they almost stole from Cloud 9 after, in my opinion, a botched draft. Anyway the long and short of it here is that I don't really think they've got a chance against RNG. I've got a collegue that's been spamming every single underdog this tournament and doing well so far and he's hyped on this game but unlike Gen.G, RNG can actually hang early in a game and probably even run Vitality over if they care to. Just too big of an individual to individual mismatch here as well as the superior jungler.

No Action


Cloud 9 vs Gen.G eSports

Gen.G looked A LOT better against RNG this morning and perhaps the Vitality upset was the only warming up or wake up call that they needed. So what's the argument for Cloud 9? If you're going to bet Cloud 9 the logic has to be that it appears that Gen.G are going to try to play through CuVee and Licorice is actually a world class caliber player. If they can get him a favorable matchup he could carry. That said I think the Cloud 9 bot lane has shown that they just can't hang when they face a real, world class bot lane. I know everyone gets smashed by Uzi but Ruler and CoreJJ are fairly close to that tier of bot lane. One of the best in the world. They're going to just obliterate the C9 bot lane and even if Licorice gets himself going I don't think they have the tools across the rest of the map to make this work. That said the line is too high here and I actually don't think Gen.G can close this early reliably just by the nature of how they play. I do like the UNDER on total kills in this match as well but only for half a unit since it's such a low number. This is going to be a boring split push game or a slower macro game.

PROP: UNDER 18.5 total kills @ -114 (0.5 units)


Just like yesterday I'll be running a lot of mixed 2-6 piece parlays mostly on the heavy favorites and underdogs as well as a couple on the whole slate to see if we can hit.

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