Friday, October 5, 2018

Play-In Group Stage Takeaways and Bets for October 6th-7th (Play-In Stage Knockouts)

Play-In Group Stage Takeaways

  • G-Rex are probably a better team than MAD Team right now and while I thought this going in I didn't appropriately differentiate it in my pre-tournament rankings. G-Rex look good and handedly took care of their group which included Gambit who have historically been one of the stronger wild card teams. Stitch and Koala have shown well on very different styles of lanes, Empt2y has been superb, perhaps the best player in the entire play-in. PK was also exceptional Candy honestly didn't need to do much but he was solid as well. Gambit aren't necessarily as good this year but G-Rex had perhaps the "hardest" group going into this and still took care of business unlike...
  • EDG looks arrogant and sloppy in the drafts and play overconfidently but they're still quite good. They're going to struggle with teams that have good enough players to hang in lane AND have good macro but they can utterly smash pretty much anybody else. Teams that have good macro but less than superb laners (someone like 100 Thieves for example) are going to have a lot of trouble against EDG because they won't be "styling" on people from this point forward and throwing free wins like they did against Infinity. I doubt this team will win the whole thing but people are going to be way down on them because they threw one game against Infinity. The biggest issue EDG has is really arrogant and incoherant drafts that are heavily focused on lane. They need to realize they aren't smashing Team WE or Vici and the LPL anymore and they'll be fine. 
  • Cloud 9 isn't as good as their record shows. This is probably going to be an unpopular opinion based on what I just wrote up about not overexaggerating a throw by EDG but unlike EDG who are arrogant in the draft and literally not using a fed Fiora in their game Cloud 9 showed a real lack of mid game transition in my opinion. I know Cloud 9 can be better than they looked here they had BY FAR the longest game time and they were 4-0 and while you could say "Oh they're just a late game, discipline team" I tend to view it more through a different lens. They had first blood in every single game they played and took a long time to do anything with their leads. Cloud 9 are still good and we'll talk more about them in a bit but I just want people to cool the jets a little bit because they went undefeated. I also think their near loss to Detonation was, in a way, worse than EDG's loss to Infinity because it revealed more holes in C9's game.
  • These groups ended up a lot more interesting and closer despite the end results being expected for the most part. Detonation and Infinity showing up and, in my opinion, overperforming as well as Dire Wolves taking a game without Shernfire all made this very very interesting. I was half expecting this group stage to go more or less by the book and it had mor than a few surprises this year instead of the usual "one surprise."
  • G4 and Lloyd are so good but Ascension was... yikes. G4 is honestly a monstrous player and some teams should look to import him. The guy has such a massive presence in the game and even when people know exactly what's coming he still comes damn close to taking over games anyway even with poor teammates. He's had multiple great international performances. 
  • The "wildcard regions get better every year" narrative is tired and old. It's only a little bit true to be honest. "But Gelati you just got done saying how close this group stage was" I did but I think a lot of teams massively overperformed (and some underperformed). If you played these games out 40 times it'd be a lot different. Don't overreact to best of ones people. Wildcard regions are more or less always going to be gated by strength of competition and not much can change that. They have more info and better coaching but at the end of the day it's more or less the same. They can sometimes upset and sometimes we'll get an exceptional candidate like SuperMassive or Albus Nox Luna.
  • G2 took more risks in draft and style than I expected them too and it was actually relieving to see. They play some typical G2 but also showed some early game flare when facing aggressive teams. They weren't perfect but they showed other teams they can battle in which way. It's not all sunshine and rainbows with them however, as expected (and wagered upon) SuperMassive punished them when they picked the wrong way to play against the wrong team. SuperMassive are also a pretty good team with exceptional macro and decision making so I'm not going to go too overboard on G2's one loss especially since they showed the ability to smash SuperMassive like they did in the tiebreakers. G2 took some risks and were paid off for it in my opinion by showing teams they aren't going to be one dimensional in this tournament.
  • SuperMassive are the best wildcard region team in the world. They incredibly one dimensional but they're so damn good at the SK Telecom style sit and wait for you to mess up style and have not only the three best Turkish domestic players of all time but two solid Koreans that fit perfectly. This team has a lot of experience in general and with the right matchups I could see them taking some games if they get into the Main Event.

Cloud 9 vs Gambit Gaming

I kinda have a weird feeling this series could be more competitive than it looks but I'm hesitant to bet Gambit because they haven't exactly looked themselves either. I'm limiting action on this because I think both teams have shown weaknesses. I think this is Cloud 9 3 to 0.5 which means I think it's possible Gambit take a game but Cloud 9 SHOULD sweep. I'm just hesitant to go too heavy in either direction. I wouldnt fault you for a small wager on the dogs here the value is insane at +533 and stranger things ahve happened.

Handicapped: Cloud 9 -2.5 maps @ +111  (2 units) (on my book it has better odds than the exact 3-0 but go with whatever is better for you)

PROP: Exact Cloud 9 3-1 @ +192 (1 unit)


EDward Gaming vs Detonation Focus Me

For as pleasant a surprise DFM have been I just don't think they stand a chance here. EDG aren't going to play with their food with their tournament lives on the line. The lines for this game are outrageous with the Exact 3-0 @ -400. I'm not going to touch any of these. The only line I could see being worth it is maybe the Exact 3-1 @ +267 if you think DFM can steal a game. The over/unders are pretty accurate to how I think this series will go too. I wouldn't fault anybody for taking the unders in all three games but I'm just gonna stay away here.



G2 eSports vs Infinity eSports

Similar lines and feel to Cloud 9 vs Gambit but again but unlike Gambit I really don't see Infinity taking a game here. G2 showed the ability to play a few ways and even though they guess incorrectly in one of those games it was against an significantly better SuperMassive team. Infinity aren't on that level. Consider those two wins the Infinity had as not only their ceiling but one of them was EDG handing the game to them on a silver platter when they absolutely shouldn't have won. G2 should take care of business here and we have decent line value!

Handicapped: G2 eSports -2.5 @ +106  (3 units)


G-Rex vs SuperMassive

To me this is the only really interesting series. G-Rex have looked outstanding and SuperMassive are an experienced international team. I think G-Rex are a little more versatile from what I've seen this year but SuperMassive are more than capable of winning a game or two this series if G-Rex botch and early game or try to tango and play into the teeth of SuperMassive's late game macro. This feels like a 3 to 1.5 with the outside chance of and upset by SuperMassive. I like the underdogs for a unit here. SuperMassive are a good team despite being one dimensional. They're like the diet Samsung from last year going into Worlds. They're exceptionally good at their game and if G-Rex don't attack that they could lose this series.

Moneyline: SuperMassive +196 (1 unit)

Handicapped: SuperMassive +1.5 @ -106 (2 units)

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