Tuesday, October 16, 2018

Betting: October 17th (2018 Worlds Main Event Group Stage Day 8)

I talked a lot about this on Twitter yesterday with a bunch of people but I'll put it here as well. I'm guilty of lazy analysis. I've done it before. I try not to. If I don't know enough about something I usually won't toss my hat in the ring and in betting every single time I haven't done all the research this year I've been punished for it.

Lazy analysis came up because a lot of people were spouting a lot of garbage about Team Liquid today. I want to set the record straight on a few things. Team Liquid are NOT one dimensional. Their most common thing to fall back to is scaling team fighting sure but just because that's what they prefer doesn't mean they aren't good at multiple styles. Over the course of the year they've dominated in every single meta, with a number of styles and strategies. They are a versatile and well-rounded team. So when poeple start saying that Team Liquid needed to "take more risks" in the draft or anything like that against teams like KT and EDG I don't think it could be further from the truth in a best of one. If you are SEVERELY outclassed in every possible way you need to do this. I'm thinking of a matchup like wildcard teams against major region teams. In those situations they are multiple tiers lower and they need to do some out of the box thinking to get any edge they can. Team Liquid are AT WORST a 1.5 tiers lower than the very best teams in the world like KT and probably even closer to EDG. And that's if you're down on them.

Team Liquid played two close games against the best team in the world. Don't look at the final stat lines. Watch the games. They played close games, punched back, appropriately counterpunched and made proactive attempts to get back into the game. This narrative that they just rolled over and died is simply wrong. They played them straight up and if it weren't for the fact that KT made some absolutely incredible outplays and brilliant setups these games easily could have gone to TL.

I think people are way too swift to call a team bad just because they're disappointing. Sometimes truly great teams and players just make unbelievable plays. There are times when a team plays badly and teams when a team plays well and another team plays better and I think that was the case with Team Liquid in this group. It's the opposite of the Cloud 9 situation where Cloud 9 just picked up the mess that other teams left them. Credit to them for that but anybody saying Cloud 9 are a better team than Liquid are out of their minds.

Watch the games. Don't do analysis based on narratives.

(To be clear not everybody was like this, there was a lot of awesome, civilized discussions on the days games but it just drives me nuts when people are lazy)


Anyway on to the final day of group stage...

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Fnatic -313 vs 100 Thieves +230
Invictus Gaming -556 vs GRex +372
Fnatic -345 vs GRex +252
Invictus Gaming -556 vs 100 Thieves +363
100 Thieves -103 vs GRex -123
Invictus Gaming -222 vs Fnatic +171


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Fnatic vs 100 Thieves

I think this matchup boils down to one factor and that's whether or not 100 Thieves can get Ssumday going or isolate him to see if he can take over this game. Regardless of whether we see Soaz or Bwipo I think Ssumday is the key to this game. 100 Thieves are outclassed in all three lanes and jungle and in mid the difference is drastically in favor of Caps as I think Ryu is likely the worst mid in this tournament and Caps is one of the best. Can 100 Thieves do this? I think there's a chance. Do I think that chance is greater than the implied odds here? I don't so I'll be staying away from this games moneyline. I'm not really sure how Fnatic are going to choose to play this game and for that matter how 100 Thieves will but I think if we consider how controlled Fnatic like to play and if we assume 100 Thieves will try to set up a split with Ssumday as their best option for a win, then I think it's safe to take the under on total kills which is relatively high for these two teams in my opinoin at 22.5.

PROP: UNDER 22.5 total kills @ -114 (1 unit)

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Invictus vs GRex

I said coming out of group stage and last week that I was impressed with GRex throughout this tournament. They're aggressive and their set plays can be creative. Unfortunatley for them Invictus are just so damn good at off the cuff skirmishing and blowing out early game leads that I think GRex's greatest strength is in some ways thwarted here. For that reason I won't completely rule out a win over Invictus here but I can't bet them. I'd be betting more on an Invictus botched early game than I would be sincerely betting GRex. I do, howver, actually think this is a better underdog bet than 100 Thieves. I think the implied odds on this game are maybe a tad off so a light wager on the underdogs isn't completely out of line. Stylistically speaking this is the type of matchup that could produce an upset with both teams focusing so heavily on skirmishes. I think the gap here combined with the styles these teams play and GRex having side selection lends itself to an underdog victory more than 100 Thieves vs Fnatic but I won't be betting against Invictus.

NO ACTION

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Fnatic vs GRex

In similar fashion to GRex vs Invictus I think this is almost a better bet for an upset than 100 Thieves just because of how proactive GRex can be if they want to be. I won't be touching this game either.

NO ACTION

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Invictus Gaming vs 100 Thieves

I think Invictus are just about the worst possible matchup in the entire tournament for 100 Thieves. 100 Thieves are a great macro team with excellent decision making mid and late game. It's how they won games domestically and were so consistent but individually this team is so far outclassed individually outside of Aphromoo and Ssumday that it's a really difficult gap to close and they're not a team that plays aggressively or has shown a willingness to cheese. Earlier in this post I was talking about how Team Liquid didn't need to cheese against KT because they were good enough to play them straight up. 100 Thieves aren't good enough to play this straight up and will have to get creative. I'm not ruling out that they won't try something odd but for a team that hasn't showed us anything like that even once this entire year I'm going to go ahead and bet that even when they do they won't be good enough or practiced enough at it against teams of this caliber that they could steal one. I'll be taking the under on both time and total kills in this game as I expect it to be an IG rout regardless of whether 100 Thieves try something weird or not.

PROP: UNDER 21.5 total kills @ -114 (1 unit)

PROP: UNDER 29:00 @ -114 (1 unit)

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100 Thieves vs GRex

This game is damn near a toss up and without either team getting plus odds it's not even really a value play on either side. I do think GRex can jump out to an early lead and with both teams likely eliminated already at this point this game could get ugly and potentially fun depending on how these teams like to carry themselves. This game has the potential to be one of those "instalock Teemo" bloodbaths for fun. I also think this could go over 22.5 kills even if both teams are playing seriously in this game as I think they're relatively evenly matched. Personally I think GRex are going to win this so I'll be putting a unit on them for the moneyilne but it's a very slight lean that I'm playing because I just feel like it. I like a unit on the OVER 22.5 kills.

Moneyline: GRex -123 (1 unit)

PROP: OVER 22.5 total kills (1 unit)

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Invictus Gaming vs Fnatic

This is perhaps the best underdog to bet today. Fnatic are a really good team. I'm not sure if they're better than Invictus but this should be close enough and combined with side selection you can totally justify betting Fnatic here. Is it a value? I don't think so. The implied odds here I actually think are pretty spot on for this matchup. Fnatic is definitely good enough to beat Invictus here but I don't know if it's more likely than the odds we're getting here. If you believe in side betting and the Western momentum we've seen this tournament then this is a good spot for a multi-unit wager but I'll be staying away from this one and just enjoying what I'm guessing will be a great game but an Invictus win.

NO ACTION





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