Betting: October 13th (2018 Worlds Main Even Group Stage Day 4)

Afreeca Freecs -500 vs Phong Vu Buffalo +346

G2 eSports +243 vs Flash Wolves -333

Team Liquid -270 vs MAD Team +204

KT Rolster -222 vs Edward Gaming +171

Invictus Gaming -526 vs 100 Thieves +359

G-Rex +198 vs Fnatic -263

Afreeca Freecs vs Phong Vu Buffalo

I said it on Twitter yesterday and I’ll say it again here. Afreeca will 4-0 the rest of the way in this group stage. They’re making the correct adaptations and this team is too good at preparation and too well-coached to perform as poorly as they have been. Phong Vu looked better than I thought they’d be but I’m not sure they’re going to be able to beat Afreeca. If Zeroes is this best player and he has to face Kiin then that nullifies a huge portion of their advantage and I like the rest of Afreeca’s lineup a lot more than PVB. I’m probably going to stay away from this game entirely as Afreeca are capable of playing an uptempo or a slower game and it’s tough to tell which they’ll do here but depending on the number I might take the under in total kills as I expect Afreeca to get back to the 1-3-1 that they’re so good at and keep this controlled and low in kills.

PROP: UNDER 22.5 total kills (1.5 units)

G2 eSports vs Flash Wolves

This is a weird matchup to me. It seems really obvious that Flash Wolves should win this but I have a few thoughts on both of these teams and it has to do with their drafts and potential lack of depth of strategy. Flash Wolves have been playing with this 3.5 tank comp usually aiming to get Urgot + Aatrox/Galio, a bruiser jungle, and some sort of engage support like Rakan or Alistar and a hyper carry like Kaisa. We haven't really seen anything else from them so Im curious as to whether or not teams will continue to let them have this or not. Perhaps banning Alistar, Aatrox, and Urgot, forcing them to take Kaisa or Rakan or Irelia with the first pick and possibly countering with the remaining two of these or something along those lines. I'm sure they have more prepared but I think teams should probably try to take them off this game plan and "make them show you" that they have something else. I think Flash Wolves look good and are almost a shoe-in for Top 8 at this point but whether or not they can really compete with the very top of the table has a lot to do with whether or not that have more than this. Similarly G2 have been a significantly different team without Heimerdinger and I'm curious whether or not it's just based on strength of opponent or if they really are that one dimensional. I'm thinking it's more the former but I still don't know. This feels like it could be an upset if G2 actually challenge Flash Wolves in the draft which nobody has done yet. I'm kind of blindly trusting them to do that so this bet is going to look kind of insane but I think G2 could force Flash Wolves to show more and falter while doing so. I'll be parlaying Flash Wolves but for the straight up bet I like putting a half unit lottery ticket on the upset here.

Moneyline: G2 eSports +243 (0.5 units)

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Team Liquid vs MAD Team

Team Liquid tried the Flash Wolves style team comp in this game and got punished really hard while scaling by one of the best early game teams in the business in EDG. It was a risk they took and that's about it. I'm not going to put too much stock into that loss because they played right into the teeth of a superior team. Liquid have had to face the other two strong teams in this group so far in EDG and KT Rolster and while I thought they had a reasoanble shot at winning against EDG yesterday they played it risky. To me this is a combination of "must win" and MAD being substantially weaker than both opponents TL have faced so far. This should be an easy win but if you are thinking about the underdog the reason you'd take them is that MAD also are an early game team similar to GRex when they are playing in their comfort zone. They want to play it fast and loose and end the game fast so if TL play into that again they could potentially get run over again. I'm betting on that not happening mostly just on strength of team overall being weaker and think TL will be able to either hold out or play early and win as well. I kind of want to take the UNDER 22.5 total kills here but I honestly don't know if TL will get sucked into playing MAD's game with them. I'll stay away from this one for now and perhaps revisit it later.

NO ACTION

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KT Rolster vs EDward Gaming

Perhaps the most intriguing matchup on tomorrows slate is the two "speed run" teams. KT and EDG have been crushing people very fast with their blazing, uptempo drafts (or even without early game drafts in some cases). The problem is that EDG have shown domestically that they struggle if teams can withstand their initial salvo. They have poor decision making mid to late game and without a lead they often struggled to find any wins at all. KT Rolster not only have the individual players to actually stand up to EDG individually but also the better decision making and macro to win either early or late. This game is bound to be fun but I think KT will have all the answers to EDG. It feels like we should take the OVER 20.5 kills but I'm actually going to go under that number. To me this game is going to be won quickly by one side or the other with the third most likely outcome being KT neutralize and then stall for a win late in which case we'd probably lose that. If the two most likely outcomes equal that we're going to bet it. I like the UNDERs in both total time AND total kills even with 20.5 being a lower number.

PROP: UNDER 20.5 total kills @ -114 (1 unit)

PROP: UNDER 32:00 total time @ -114 (1 unit)

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Invictus Gaming vs 100 Thieves

100 Thieves pulled one out yesterday. Aphromoo really is a world class player and it's a shame he cant get on a better team. He's one of the best support players in the world and you could make an argument for him being the best Western player right now besides Caps. It's impressive how good both he and Licorice have been at this tournament so far. Anyway long story short I don't think 100 Thieve can handle this. Invictus are an absolute nightmare matchup. IG are better in almost every position and this game is going to be over in lane phase before 100 Thieves macro and decisive shot calling will matter. The draft is also going to be a huge problem with Rookie presenting a potential multi-ban requirement. I give 100 Thieves less than a 10% chance to win this game even in a best of one, IG are just too good. This should be a swift and decisive IG victory and the only way I don't see that happening is if they decide to show the rest of the tournament a weird pick or a late game style just to threaten that they can do it. Honestly they could win this in under 30 minutes even if they pick to scale.

PROP: UNDER 23.5 total kills @ -114 (1.5 units)

PROP: UNDER 30:00 total time @ -116 (1 unit)

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G-Rex vs Fnatic


This should be an interesting matchup with both teams approaching "must win" territory. I think Fnatic are the superior squad though. I don't like the whole transitive property style comparison in best of one formats because styles matter and it's a small sample size but if you consider that Fnatic smashed 100 Thieves and 100 Thieves beat G-Rex you can kind of tie this together. Really I think it's simpler than that. Fnatic are just a really good team and I think a good amount better than both G-Rex and 100 Thieves. I'm not going to be discouraged by the lashing IG put on them this morning. IG are not only one of the best teams in the tournament but exceptionally good in uptempo situations like that and Fnatic made a few correctable mistakes early in that game that would have made it more interesting. This should be rather one sided.

If you're looking for the pro-GRex argument it's that I think they're going to start Empt2y, the jungler they looked so good with in play-ins here. Baybay started most of their games throughout the year so it was a bit unexpected but honestly Empt2y looked better and if they're going to start beating superior teams they're going to need to up the aggression level instead of playing into what other teams expect. They're a different team with him playing so if you think they can turn it around with him starting that's a reasonable concept to build on for an upset here.

I'm sticking with Fnatic regardless of which jungler starts even though I think Empt2y would be a better idea for GRex right now. I don't really know how this is going to play out so I'll be avoiding this game. IF we hear that Baybay is playing again I like the UNDER on total kills but if not this game could get bloody and I'd lean the over. As it stands I'm staying away.

NO ACTION


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Once again I'll be running parlays and I've been absolutely killing it with these this tournament so lets keep it rolling. Mixed 2-6 piecers on the favorites, mix the unders I'm betting in too if you want higher risk/higher reward.