Tuesday, October 9, 2018

Worlds 2018 FUTURES

These are my futures bets for the 2018 World Championship with my first choice bolded. These are mostly for fun as most futures bets are but if you're about "value" then check the end for some short discussion.

World Champions:
  • KT Rolster +300 (2.5 units)
  • Phong Vu Buffalo +50,000 (0.25 units)
World Champions Group:
  • Group C @ +500 (0.25 units) (was posted after)
  • Group D @ +500 (0.25 units)
Region of Winner:
  • Korea +125 (1 unit)
Tournament MVP:
  • Score (KT) @ +2000 (0.5 units)
  • UCal (KT) @ +4500 (0.5 units)
  • Mata (KT) @ +1600 (0.25 units)
  • Deft (KT) @ +2000 (0.25 units)
  • Smeb (KT) @ +1000 (0.25 units)
  • Ambition (GEN) @ +5000 (0.25 units)
  • Spirit (AFR) @ +8000 (0.25 units)
  • Xiaohu (RNG) @ +7500 (0.25 units)
  • JackeyLove (IG) @ +4000 (0.25 units)
  • Kiin (AFR) @ +1400 (0.25 units)
  • Rookie (IG) @ +800 (0.25 units)
  • SwordArt (FW) @ +6600 (0.25 units)

So obviously my pick to win the tournament is KT Rolster but I think there are some nice values if you like doing value props. Fnatic to win the group at +400 isn't out of the realm of possibility especially if they can take a game off of Invictus.  Phong Vu is a huge unknown and at +50,000, I'm not sure any team should be that low so I'll throw a quarter at that. I've seen unlikely stories in eSports over the years, like this year in The International with the Cinderella story of OG and Cloud 9 at The Boston Major in Counterstrike also this year. It can happen and especially with a lot of unknowns I like that chance. 

In terms of tournament MVP I've obviously stacked the entire KT lineup since I think they'll win. Uzi is the favorite at +225 but I'm thinking outside the box a bit and think he could, perhaps it's blasphemy to say, actually have his first bad or mediocre international appearance in his long and storied career. This is essentially a lot of the players I consider the best in the tournament or that must perform well if their teams are going to win the whole thing. The "Best Values" I see on here are SwordArt at +6600, Xiaohu at +7500, Score at +2000 and UCal at +4500. If KT are to win it could be anybody but I don't think people realize just how good UCal is. He was utterly dominant in the LCK this split and the mid lane talent there was absurd. If you like RNG to win Xiaohu is a great value since Uzi is such a massive favorite. The team doesn't play around him as much but as a mid laner he can make a lot happen and could potentially disrupt the bias towards Uzi. If you like Flash Wolves a lot this year than SwordArt will be the reason they win games. He's the strongest player on this team, has tons of Worlds experience, and the metagame is extremely good for him.

If you are looking for more context on these selections I suggest checking out my Pre-Tournament Power Rankings as well as my other posts regarding the tournament.

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