Betting October 20th and 21st (2018 Worlds Quarterfinals)

KT Rolster (-323, -1.5 @ -141)
vs Over/Under 33:00, total kills 21.5
Invictus Gaming (+229, +1.5 @ +104)


I'd argue that these are the two best early game teams on the planet and when those styles collide it can create really high variance games so this matchup honestly has the potential to go any direction depending on how these teams decide to play it. The main difference here is that KT do everything well. They're strategically versatile, have the individual talent, experience, coaching, and depth of champion pools to do literally anything they want at the highest level. Invictus are a bit more narrow but are in that exceptional tier of early game-centric teams, possibly the best there is right now. I'd give a very slight edge individually to KT Rolster simply because we're talking about four hall of fame caliber players and a rookie in UCal that is honestly one of the best mid laners on earth even this early on in his career. He's done more for this team than be a role player on a super team, he's hard carried them at times when they've struggled, he's the real deal and not just because he's on this team.

How you bet this matchup is how you think these teams will play it. What I mean by that is that if, for example, you think KT are going to use their individual prowess and excellent game planning to try to deflect the initial salvo from Invictus and then scale into mid or late game where they're also incredibly good, then you might think these are medium to longer length games and maybe KT botches one of those defenses and you end up with a 3 to 1 kind of series. Another example would be that both teams try to outpace each other and we have a fast and furious, coin-flip kind of series where the team that executes better simply wins. Another possibility is that this starts one way and ends another and for me personally I think that's kind of where this series goes.

This feels to me like these teams will come out and challenge each other early in this first game and possibly the second game before things settle down. Both of these teams have been excellent in longer series (I know IG lost to RNG but watch those series they were good). I'm thinking the most likely outcome for this series is a KT 3-1 with the next most likely a KT 3-2. IG could win this and you could argue that they're a value here with these odds so if you're strictly a value better the play is to bet the Invictus moneyline straight up or to bet the KT -1.5 because there isn/t a lot of value otherwise. I wouldnt fault you for either but I like KT to win here and I expect most of these games to be close. This KT handicap isn't a smart wager but it's the one I'm making. Feel free to tail at a lower amount as I still think it's the correct bet it's just not if you're into systems/value.


Handicapped: KT Rolster -1.5 maps @ -141 (4 units)

PROP: Map 1 UNDER 33:00 @ -116 (1 unit)

PROP: Map 1 UNDER 33:00 @ -116 (1 unit)

PROP: Exact KT 3-1 @ +214 (0.5 units)

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Royal Never Give Up (-667, -2.5 @ +128)
vs Over/Under 30:00, total kills 21.5
G2 eSports (+408, +2.5 @ -175)

I think people are going to be a bit overexcited about "EU looking good" and RNG actually losing some games and will overreact here. Sure, if you want to buy into the hype and toy around with the idea of G2 making this a series be my guest but I can't agree with you. This looks like total bait though right? Like the +2.5 seems like an absolute lock but to me it isn't. I'd be utterly shocked if G2 took a game here and that's even keeping in mind all the upsets that have happened this tournament. So let's talk for a bit about how that would happen because to me the ONLY way it happens is if we get a hard carry performance from Wunder or RNG opt to not ban Heimerdinger out of pride. Both of things are possible but to me they're extremely unlikely. This just feels like a complete stomping and a reality check kind of situation. I know EU has a history of doing well in situations like these but RNG are just so damn good and with G2's deficiencies early without the crutch of Heimerdinger that leaves a standout performance by Wunder as their only real out. G2 have some players but I just think they're too outclassed here. Even with the mistake prone MLXG as a sub option to come in and have one of his blunder type games I still think RNG would beat G2 nine times out of ten. To me this series projects to be RNG reality check G2 in game one, G2 flounders and tries something weird in game two that RNG just beats anywy, and then the full tilt in game three. I'm hesitant to lay huge money on a -2.5 but I'll put 3 units on it with these odds that could be a big payoff for us. To me this is as simple as a Tier 1 team against a Tier 3 team and usually in those situations it takes a stylistic mismatch to even have a shot at taking a game or two. RNG are simply too good and I'm not buying into the upset narratives or the hype. It took a wild and whacky group for G2 to get here and while I think they've slightly overperformed my exepections I think we've got to be real here.


Handicapped: RNG -2.5 maps @ +153 (3 units)

PROP: Map 1 UNDER 30:00 @ -116 (1 unit)

PROP: Map 2 UNDER 30:00 @ -116 (1 unit)

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Afreeca Freecs (-417, -1.5 @ -238)
vs Over/Under 34:00, total kills 19.5
Cloud 9 (+286, +1.5 @ +171)


A lot of you know how I feel about Cloud 9 escaping this group based on my writeup yesterday. I respect that Cloud 9 actually did it and they've vastly overperformed my expectations of them but putting all the NA hopes and dreams memes aside for a second and looking at this paints a bleak picture. I actually think Afreeca have slightly underperformed this tournament but I was relatively high on them (perhaps not high enough as I had Gen.G ahead of them in my rankings by half a tier). Afreeca had a bad read on the metagame in "week one" and I didn't like their drafts and if you're going to bet on Cloud 9 it's because Afreeca "lost to the terrible Flash Wolves and dropped a game to C9." Personally I think they sured up a lot of their draft mistakes and looked significantly improved in the second round robin taking all three of their games that day. For those of you that didn't watch Korea this year, Afreeca were sort of like the LCK version of 100 Thieves. Excellent against their domestic competition and a collection of good but not great players (besides Kiin). Their strength was their preparation and ability to quickly adapt to metagame changes and make the correct read. They had the wrong read in week one and as soon as they corrected that looked a lot better. You could point to the C9 game as an omen or whatever but after watching both of these teams all season I think C9 are playing at or near their ceiling while Afreeca are just playing at close to their average level. Afreeca are steady.

I like Afreeca for a few reasons

• Licorice is C9's strongest asset and Kiin is arguably the best top laner in the world so they'll likely cancel each other out and that's if you're extremely optimistic about Licorice (I'm giving him some benefit of the doubt but Kiin could very well just smash him). 
• Afreeca's other four players are all individually stronger, more experienced, and more versatile than C9's other four.
• Afreeca, as with most Korean teams, are incredibly good at using the information you give them and C9 have pulled out a lot of stops to be here. They'll be well-prepared. They don't play with fire in drafts they put you in a situation where you have to beat them straight up.
• Afreeca have the single best player in the matchup and have the only truly elite, best in the world caliber talent in this matchup in Kiin.
• To me, C9 at their best doesn't beat Afreeca on an average or mediocre day in a best of five.

I could go on about how I wanted some other, better teams here from Korea but Afreeca are still an excellent squad and are a good margain better than C9 to me. I like Afreeca 3 to 1 as the most likely outcome with 3 to 0 as the next most likely. I'm not entirely sure how Afreeca are going to do it, with 1-3-1 or team fighting or uptempo or slowed down or maybe something they have prepared so I'll be staying away from over/under wagers on this but I like Afreeca a lot here and they'll be my biggest wager for group stage.

(UPDATE: This line has moved a couple times already. I tacked on another unit at -1.5 @ -175 but I already liked this at -196. I'm not going to expose myself too much more than this unless it drops to something obscene but feel free to wait. I think maybe we'll get some square money from the dreamers on G2 and we could eke out some more value here.)

Handicapped: Afreeca -1.5 maps @ -196 (5 units)

ADD ON: Afreeca -1.5 maps @ -175 (1 unit)


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Fnatic (-213, -1.5 @ +102)
vs Over/Under 33:00, total kills 23.5
EDward Gaming (+159, +1.5 @ -139)

For as good as I think Fnatic are I don't think it's out of line to say EDG could steal this. We've seen stranger things happen. EDG playing at their ceiling are remarkably tough. They have a way of jumping on you and they have the individual players to beat you that way but Fnatic showed us that they can rumble in this uptempo style against a team that I'd argue is one of the few teams on the planet that are better than them at it in Invictus. I'm going to take this time to remind everyone that we saw Fnatic look great against Invictus but it was also only a few games. Invictus was DOMINANT all season long with their only losses coming to RNG. Before going into this tournament everyone would have had a lot more respect for it. Fnatic have been incredibly good, they lead in almost every metric and are dominating gold ratio even above KT but that is somewhat boosted by high kill games in a six game sample size. I think Fnatic look great but I'm definitely not writing them a free ticket here. EDG could definitely beat them. Ultimately this comes down to which EDG you think shows up and whether or not they can break serve for a game without side selection. Teams that play this fast and furious style rely a lot on draft advantages to get lane advantages to facilitate their attempts to speed the game up and they won't have that here. EDG beat teams that were better than they are in their regional gauntlet to get here, as many of you remember I've called them the 5th best team in the LPL coming into this tournament but I'm certainly not going to rule out an EDG "upset" here.

TL:DR - Fnatic looked better than I've seen them all year, and EDG haven't looked quite at their best this tournament (they've looked good not great). Fnatic I think are the better team but EDG can certainly win this. If you think the good EDG shows up I actually slightly favor them. If average or worse EDG shows up I like Fnatic.

I'm going to wait for line movement here and act accordingly. If the EDG +1.5 gets to a spot I like then I might take a gamble on them. If not I like Fnatic ML but it's not a great value. This is bettors choice but the true value I think is on EDG.

PROP: Exact Fnatic 3-2 @ +372 (1 unit)

Others pending line movement