Monday, October 8, 2018

Worlds 2017 Prediction Review

These predictions don't necessarily align with how I'd bet because that obviously depends on the markets but going into the group stage I like to do a prediction post every year and see how I do.

2017 Group A Prediction:
SK Telecom 6-0 (in post I said likely 1 loss possible)
Cloud 9 3-3 (will win tiebreak vs EDG)
EDG 3-3 (lose tiebreak vs C9)
AHQ 0-6

2017 Group A Results:
SK Telecom 5-1 (one loss to AHQ)
Cloud 9 3-3 
EDG 2-4
AHQ 2-4

AHQ showed better than I thought that would but I more or less had this pinned down. EDG predictably choked and Mouse was a big reason as we thought going in. SKT dropped a sloppy game to AHQ.

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2017 Group B Prediction:
Longzhu 5-1
Immortals 4-2 (Predicted 1-1 vs Longzu, 1-1 vs Fnatic)
Fnatic 3-3 (1-1 vs Immortals, 0-2 vs Longzhu)
Gigabyte Marines 0-6 (predicted they'd be bad because not the same team from MSI that did well)

2017 Group B Results:
Longzhu 6-0
Fnatic 2-4
Gigabyte 2-4
Immortals 2-4

Gigabyte managed to take games off of Fnatic and Immortals (the IMT loss was particularly stinging, they really punted).

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2017 Group C Prediction:
Samsung 5-1 (loss to RNG)
RNG 4-2 (loss to Samsung and G2)
G2 3-3 (0-2 vs Samsung, 1-1 with RNG)
1907 Fenerbahce 0-6 (subs before tourney due to visa issue figured 0-6)

2017 Group C Results:
RNG 5-1 (loss to G2)
Samsung 4-2 (0-2 vs RNG, won rest)
G2 3-3 (1-1 vs RNG, 2-0 vs FB)
1907 FB 0-6

Didn't see Samsung dropping both to RNG but otherwise had the right read here.

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2017 Group D Prediction:
Team Solo Mid 5-1 (loss to World Elite, win tiebreaker)
Team World Elite 5-1 (loss to TSM, lose tiebreaker)
Flash Wolves 2-4 (only wins vs Misfits)
Misfits 0-6 

2017 Group D Results:
Team WE 5-1 (only loss to TSM)
Misfits 3-3 (0-2 vs WE, 1-1 vs TSM)
Team Solo Mid 3-3 (1-1 vs WE, 1-1 vs MSF, 1-1 vs FW, lost Tie to MSF)
Flash Wolves 1-5 (only win vs TSM)

Misfits was the team I was most wrong about in the entire tournament but I more or less had the rest of this group accurately depicted as competitive between the top teams and Flash Wolves not as good as they were in previous years. I was most wrong about this group but was pretty glad to be right about Flash Wolves, just hard to see Misfits storming out to such a good group stage and having such a great tournament overall later taking SKT to a tough series.

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Overall I selected six out of the top eight teams correctly. I also correctly called that Flash Wolves wouldn't be as good as previous years (something almost nobody was predicting last year). I was dead wrong on Misfits and if not for absolutely awful performances in week two by Immortals and TSM I would have spiked a near perfect group stage prediction but that's why we play the games folks. I thought it'd be interesting to bring back these predictions to really look back on how well I did last Worlds even though I wasn't betting then.

You can find the original post here in all of its horrific formatting glory!

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