Tuesday, August 14, 2018

LCK Summer Playoffs Rd 2 8/15 Schedule:

(UPDATE: This line is now -303/-1.5 @ -185. This is the same writeup as yesterday just moved it for you all.)
Kingzone DragonX (-270, -1.5 @ -141)
vs Over/Under 37:00, Total Kills 17.5
Afreeca Freecs (+195, +1.5 @ +102)

DISCLAIMER: I'm doubling my unit count for the rest of the LCK season both as a statement of confidence and, to be honest, some more fun having a bigger stake in the games. I'd caution against tailing at these numbers. Cut them in half unless you're as confident as I am.

Handicapped: Kingzone -1.5 maps @ -128 (12 units) (PICK OF THE WEEK)

PROP: Exact Kingzone 3-0 @ +208 (1 unit)

PROP: Exact Kingzone 3-1 @ +231 (1 unit)

As I said above this is a bit heavy handed so tail at your own risk but I'm surpemely confident in Kingzone here for a myriad of reasons. These are roughly in order of weight towards my decision from top to bottom.

  • Kingzone have had more time to plan for this match and have more film on Afreeca who had to prepare for Gen.G
  • Kingzone will not be surprised by the draft/champions that Afreeca showed on Sunday morning against Gen.G.
  • For as well coached as Afreeca are they'd be hard-pressed to have another curveball like that to throw on a few days notice and unlike Gen.G, Kingzone will actually aggressively draft counterpicks.
  • Kingzone have not only seen Afreeca's first curveball but they've seen a weekend of games in other regions that have punished greedy drafting from blue side so I doubt they'll make those mistakes.
  • Similarly to the last point, Kingzone can use some of those punish strategies effectively themselves since they have side selection they hold a lot of the cards here.
  • Side selection.
  • Kingzone was 4-1 in the head-to-head this season against Afrreca.
  • By the end of the Summer Split Kingzone looked like the team that I pinned to be the best team in the world prior to this entire year starting back in January. They're following the trajectory of elite teams that coast or even struggle a bit during the early Summer but ramp up and reach another level as we move toward the end of the year and Worlds time.
  • Khan is one of the few top laners in the world that could beat up on Kiin.
  • BDD is better than Kuro. Don't get me wrong I love Kuro and he's been severely underrated for his entire career (including his time on the Tigers) but he's just not as good as BDD plain and simple.
  • Kingzone have individual advantages at every other position.

I am a Kingzone fanboy and I think you all know that but even considering that this is clear as day to me. The most important things to consider are that Afreeca aren't going to surprise Kingzone and if by some chance they do it will be with a significantly less effective strategy and a strategy they picked up and prepared with less time. Kingzone are also a more dynamic team than Gen.G are, they're much more versatile and willing to punish aggressive picks than Gen.G who always play the same style.



LOL Pro League (China) 8/15 Schedule:

Rogue Warriors (-417, -1.5 @ -132)
@ Over/Under 35:00, Total Kills 24.5
TopSports Gaming (+299, +1.5 @ -102)

No Action

I'm tempted to go TopSports +1.5 here because Rogue Warriors don't really need this game and TopSports are in a must win situation. Rogue Warriors aren't the type of team to just coast, they have too much pride and fire in their bellies but after a triple 40 minute game slugfest with a bottom tier, nothing to play for OMG, I definitely think TopSports have a chance to take a game here. Rogue Warriors have iced the #1 seed already.

As an aside, Rogue Warriors have looked extremely reliant on Dr. Mundo. OMG banned it game one and won, didn't ban it game two and three and lost, also Mouse has played it a staggering 19 times... this next most played champion is 3 games played. Do I think Mouse can only play Mundo? Not at all but this type of reliance can make you get complacent. They did beat IG in a game without it so it's not like they need it, Mouse just hasn't really had to absorb any bans so he gets to play the extremely powerful Dr. Mundo quite a bit.

IF you're going to play this game I think the play is TopSports +1.5 @ -102. I'm going to wait to see if this line shifts at all and even then it might be a light 1-2u play.

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