Monday, August 13, 2018

Betting: August 14th (LPL and EARLY PICK LCK Summer Playoffs Round 2)

LOL Pro League (China) 8/14 Schedule:

Royal Never Give Up (-500, -1.5 @ -123)
@ Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 23.5
BiliBili Gaming (+336, +1.5 @ -105)

Suning Gaming (-175, -1.5 @ +153)
@ Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 23.5
LGD Gaming (+136, +1.5 @ -204)

Handicapped: RNG -1.5 maps @ -123  (3 units)

PROP: Map 1 OVER 34:00 @ -114 (1 unit)

PROP: Map 2 OVER 34:00 @ -114 (1 unit)

With BiliBili effectively eliminated from playoff contention and RNG having only two matches left to catch JDG you can bet they'll be hell bent on trying to give themselves the best shot at the #2 seed... that is, unless you think they're just coasting now that they're comfortably ahead of Suning Gaming. I think there's a possibility that RNG are doing a bit of that, not so much coasting out of comfort but because it'd be pretty tough to change their situation and they're not at any threat of losing a Worlds spot with so many Championship Points already. If BiliBili had something to play for here I'd like the +1.5 quite a bit but as it stands I like RNG to sweep this barring some unforseen carelessness. I'd like RNG to 2-0 as the most likely outcome even if both teams were in a heated race because I think RNG are enough better that that's a reasonable expectation. The current situation simply moves that expected 2-0 from say 60% to maybe 75%+.

I'm also taking the OVER's here. Both of these teams PREFER to play slow and with the metagame trending/already in that direction it wouldn't surprise me to see two slow, disciplined wins from RNG here especially if Uzi starts. Of course this could backfire as RNG could adjust from getting punished for this against Vici the other day but I doubt they'll change, they more or less know who they are. BiliBili's average game time has been lower than the line at 32:56 but they still prefer to play slow, those numbers are just skewed from when they were being run over earlier in the split.


Moneyline: Suning -175 (4 units)

PROP: OVER 2.5 maps @ +129 (2 units)

This is actually a fascinating match to me. LGD have been surging and finally living up to their individual talent. Suning have struggled off and on during the season but are still in possession of a playoff spot in their conference. Only one match win separates these two teams and they get to duke it out tomorrow and the winner will have a huge edge on holding that #4 playoff seed with the "double swing" of a win + loss.

As good as LGD have looked of late they're still not a particularly great team, just good individuals. Suning are a little bit of both but more importantly they play much better as a team than LGD do. Stylistically Suning are able to do a little bit of everything while LGD have embraced their new uptempo identity for better or for worse.

Both teams have had impressive wins this past week but we're going to go with Suning here. This team has only dropped one "bad" series all season and it was to Team WE a few weeks ago and one game loss to Vici in their first match of the entire split. They decisively beat the teams they should beat and they've even taken a few games off of superior teams like RNG, Rogue Warriors, Invictus and JDG. I love Suning to win this outright but I'm not confident enough in the 2-0 as LGD have looked the best they have in almost three seasons and their aggressive, uptempo style can likely take a game off of Suning, not that they're a passive team or anything.

Ultimately this will be the team that belongs in playoffs beating the team that doesn't.That's not the reason it's just what I think will be the reality here. Suning have only lost to good+ teams and they've been competitive with the great teams. LGD have a couple wins against good teams but nothing against the great teams. Both teams have won three of their last four so I don't really think either is hotter than the other. I also think Suning have the tools to handle LGD's early aggression with their strongest asset being their mid+jungle duo in Angel+H4cker.



LCK Summer Playoffs Rd 2 8/15 Schedule:

Kingzone DragonX (-270, -1.5 @ -141)
vs Over/Under 37:00, Total Kills 17.5
Afreeca Freecs (+195, +1.5 @ +102)

DISCLAIMER: I'm doubling my unit count for the rest of the LCK season both as a statement of confidence and, to be honest, some more fun having a bigger stake in the games. I'd caution against tailing at these numbers. Cut them in half unless you're as confident as I am.

Handicapped: Kingzone -1.5 maps @ -128 (12 units) (PICK OF THE WEEK)

PROP: Exact Kingzone 3-0 @ +208 (1 unit)

PROP: Exact Kingzone 3-1 @ +231 (1 unit)

As I said above this is a bit heavy handed so tail at your own risk but I'm surpemely confident in Kingzone here for a myriad of reasons. These are roughly in order of weight towards my decision from top to bottom.

  • Kingzone have had more time to plan for this match and have more film on Afreeca who had to prepare for Gen.G
  • Kingzone will not be surprised by the draft/champions that Afreeca showed on Sunday morning against Gen.G.
  • For as well coached as Afreeca are they'd be hard-pressed to have another curveball like that to throw on a few days notice and unlike Gen.G, Kingzone will actually aggressively draft counterpicks.
  • Kingzone have not only seen Afreeca's first curveball but they've seen a weekend of games in other regions that have punished greedy drafting from blue side so I doubt they'll make those mistakes.
  • Similarly to the last point, Kingzone can use some of those punish strategies effectively themselves since they have side selection they hold a lot of the cards here.
  • Side selection.
  • Kingzone was 4-1 in the head-to-head this season against Afrreca.
  • By the end of the Summer Split Kingzone looked like the team that I pinned to be the best team in the world prior to this entire year starting back in January. They're following the trajectory of elite teams that coast or even struggle a bit during the early Summer but ramp up and reach another level as we move toward the end of the year and Worlds time.
  • Khan is one of the few top laners in the world that could beat up on Kiin.
  • BDD is better than Kuro. Don't get me wrong I love Kuro and he's been severely underrated for his entire career (including his time on the Tigers) but he's just not as good as BDD plain and simple.
  • Kingzone have individual advantages at every other position.

I am a Kingzone fanboy and I think you all know that but even considering that this is clear as day to me. The most important things to consider are that Afreeca aren't going to surprise Kingzone and if by some chance they do it will be with a significantly less effective strategy and a strategy they picked up and prepared with less time. Kingzone are also a more dynamic team than Gen.G are, they're much more versatile and willing to punish aggressive picks than Gen.G who always play the same style.


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