Gen.G eSports (-192, -1.5 @ +161)
@ Over/Under 36:00, Total Kills 16.5
Afreeca Freecs (+148, +1.5 @ -213)
Moneyline: Gen.G eSports -196 (6 units)
Handicapped: Gen.G -1.5 maps @ +159 (2 units)
By the end of the regular season I think there was a pretty big gap between the top four teams and the 5th and 6th seeded Afreeca and Hanwha. I think that stays in effect here. Gen.G have a metagame that heavily favors their playstyle, have side selection to do whatever they want in the draft, have looked A LOT better in the past two weeks, and after a rocky game one, utterly smashed Afreeca in their last meeting a couple weeks ago. Gen.G tend to play low kill games and in playoffs teams tend to play more reserved so even though 16.5 looks pretty low I don't think it's unreasonable to take that under but I'm going to avoid it because I think if Afreeca are going to take any games in this series it's by upping the tempo on Gen.G who have proven to be a potent macro team with a few exceptions.
I don't have any numbers or metrics to really support this one as both teams are fairly even in those regards but I like Gen.G's form more recently and I think their ability to play short and long slightly better in each category than Afreeca as well as having side selection in a meta that's trending toward their playstyle gives them a big enough edge to like them for a 2-0 here.
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LOL Pro League (China) 8/12 Schedule:
LGD Gaming (-345, -1.5 @ +100)
@ Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 24.5
Vici Gaming (+248, +1.5 @ -130)
JD Gaming (-294, -1.5 @ +112)
@ Over/Under 35:00, Total Kills 23.5
Suning Gaming (+220, +1.5 @ -147)
Invictus Gaming (-164, -1.5 @ +179)
@ Over/Under 35:00, Total Kills 24.5)
Royal Never Give Up (+127, +1.5 @ -244)
Handicapped: LGD Gaming -1.5 maps @ +100 (2 units)
I'm kind of on board with Pulse that LGD might be a better team than their record. They aren't a good team but they have good enough players that this should be a stronger lineup. Vici are cemented firmly at the bottom of the standings. They have eight game wins on the season and only one match win which was against LGD so why am I taking the LGD sweep here? LGD are actually only one match win out of playoff contention and if you consider that Suning have to play the strong JD Gaming today and could lose, LGD could actually move into the #4 seed in the East Region playoff. LGD have also been on a bit of a tear recently winning six of their last eight matches and five of their last six with their only loss against top team Rogue Warriors. In those wins were a 50 minute series win against OMG, and a decisive 2-0, albiet one that took a bit longer, over Team WE which included Y4's Viktor bottom.
I'm not going to put too much stock in Vici stealing a game from RNG yesterday but I will give them credit for jumping out to a lead against RNG. The problem this team has is that it will make aggressive plays and does a really poor job of taking objectives off of the action they force. It's the sign of a bad team. They're aggressive and constantly making plays but they look like they don't think about the next step or why they're doing things a lot of the time. In both game one and game three yesterday Vici jumped out to large leads against RNG and simply couldn't close the games. It took them 52 minutes in game one after repeated mistakes setting up a split/siege and in game three they ended up losing a 64 minute game that RNG appeared to be trying to lose (not literally) over and over and over and over and Vici still couldn't close. This isn't a good team.
Ultimately LGD are a tough team to read but it appears that their quality of individual players has been doing a lot of work for them recently and they're finally beginning to put things together. With revenge from the loss the first time around as well as a potentially tie for the #4 seed with Suning coming with a win and a Suning loss today you can expect LGD to pull out all the stops and ice this one against the LPL's worst team. I also think this is the only real value we can derive from this matchup and it's a decent line for something I'd expect to happen. The next choice would be the over 2.5 maps @ +132 if you don't believe in the sweep.
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Handicapped: JD Gaming -1.5 maps @ +112 (3 units)
We've talked a lot about JD's rise this season. They continued their winning ways yesterday with a different kind of win than has been the norm for them beating BiliBili at their own scaling game with Gangplank, Ezreal, and Azir picks that show that this team is continuing to grow and improve their versatility. JD Gaming are the real deal folks. I'm not quite sure they're on the level of Invictus or Rogue Warriors but you're looking at someone that's knocking on the door of elite status. Right now I think they're a better team than RNG are. Now there's a chance RNG are just slow rolling but just based on what we've seen JD are the stronger team. That puts them as the third best team in China. With RNG's championship points lead there's a good chance they'll end up at Worlds regardless of whether they win this season long as they make the playoffs and win a round. JD don't have that luxury so they're going to have to make quite a run and it looks like that could be happening.
Suning have struggled at times this season, so much so that with a loss here and an LGD win against Vici they'd be tied for the #4 seed in the East Region but this isn't a bad team. For this reason I don't think this will be a walk in the park for JDG. Suning are also a pretty good team consistently towards the top of that mid tier of LPL teams. Their only fault really has been that the East Region has three excellent teams ahead of them in IG, JDG, and RNG. They've really only had one "bad" loss and that was to Team WE. You could consider their loss to Edward "bad" if you want but I put these two teams in a similar tier. So if you consider Team WE a "bad" loss to a lower tier team, Suning have only really lost to good teams and have even taken some games against the elite teams. They even took a match against RNG the other day.
I want to hammer this play for JDG. These are very good odds for us but I'm going to dial it back for a couple of reasons. First, Suning have had four days or rest and preparation since their last match. Second, Suning have LGD breathing down their necks for the #4 seed and could move into a tie with a loss here. So why aren't I going with Suning? I just think JD are an ascending team right now and I like these odds quite a bit. As I said I'm staying reserved with this but I'm trying to attack a line I like here in some way. We'll take the favorites to sweep for 3 units although I think one or both of these games could be close.
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Moneyline: Invictus Gaming -164 (5 units)
PROP: Exact Invictus 2-1 @ +235 (1 unit)
PROP: OVER 2.5 total maps @ -128 (2 units)
This looks like it's going to be an absolute slobberknocker. With Uzi out of the lineup I would've SLAMMED Invictus here but with him appearing to be "back" I think RNG have a better outlook. How often are you going to get + odds on RNG? This seems like an easy mid unit dog play on RNG so why am I so heavy on Invictus? I have a few reasons. First, I think Invictus are the best team in the LPL right now and have been all season. I honestly thought they were even after RNG won MSI and still thought so even after RNG won Rift Rivals. I think they happened to lose Spring Semifinals to RNG in a CLASSIC series that could have gone either way and perhaps were a bit tilted for the third place match against Rogue Warriors. I know it sounds like I'm giving them a lot of leeway and making excuses for them but hear me out here because I'm trying not to be too results oriented. Invictus have only lost to RNG and it was 2-1. Yes they've punted a lot of games to mid tier teams. With or without Uzi, RNG have dropped four series including losses to mid tier teams like Suning and FunPlus but most importantly two of RNG's losses have come to the other top tier teams. 1-2 vs JDG in week one and an 0-2 vs Rogue Warriors July 22nd. Now they also beat Invictus 2-1 the first time around which is going to be one of the main counterpoints here but in more or less every other way Invictus have been a better team.
- Invictus: 1951 gold per minute, 1965 damage per minute, +262 gold differential per minute, 41% first blood, 65% first tower
- Royal Never Give Up: 1852 gold per minute, 1776 damage per minute, +126 gold differential per minute, 44% first blood, 65% first tower
These numbers aren't that skewed because both teams play in the same conference and both teams have similar win% records 27 - 10 and 22-12 respectively. Invictus are a blazing fast team and although RNG are capable of the same thing, they prefer to play longer scaling games where they can feed Uzi resources.
I'm loving Invictus here for a a lot of reasons. The above stated metrics are one, JackeyLove being one of the only ADC's that can actually hang with Uzi is two, Invictus' utter dismantling of Rogue Warriors in 24 minutes and sub 20 minutes in their wins in that 2-1 match is a statement and I think RW are a better team than RNG is currently which is point number three. Invictus are a stylistic counter to how RNG want to play and have looked in better form in the past few weeks than RNG has. There is also the vengeance factor at hand. If the meta game wasn't as wild as it was back when these teams first met it wouldn't have surprised me to see either team win. Right now even with the metagame shifting more towards RNG's style I think Invictus have actually looked even better. They're so so good at punishing that they don't even need to draft early game teams to snowball so I like their odds in a long game too. I like Invictus to 2-1, I might actually drop a half unit on the 2-0 if I'm feeling more confident toward game time.
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League Masters Series (Taiwan) 8/12 Schedule:
Flash Wolves (-1250, -1.5 @ -233)
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JTeam (+550, +1.5 @ +155)
G-Rex (-250, -1.5 @ +124)
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AHQ eSports (+172, +1.5 @ -182)
Handicapped: Flash Wolves -1.5 @ -233 (2 units)
I haven't had a lot of action on the LMS this split because it's been quite weird and we haven't had too many good spots to bet in my opinion. There have been a few redditors that have had more success on the LMS season so I'd direct you to the esports daily thread in r/sportsbook for more frequent and accurate action. The one thing I'm sure of is the Flash Wolves are still roflstomping this region and we haven't seen a number this close to -200 in awhile so we'll throw a few units at it. Flash Wolves have lost only two games all season. One of them was, in fact, to JTeam but I'm not going to overthink this. Flash Wolves should stomp this. JTeam aren't even as good as they were last season.
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PROP: GRex vs AHQ OVER 2.5 maps @ -105 (1 unit)
AHQ look like one of the worst teams in the LMS but GRex haven't been too consistent either and these teams played a back and forth match the first time around that was actually quite entertaining if you get a chance to check out a vod or highlights. GRex have played all three games in all but two of their series this season. That makes ten out of twelve have gone to the third game and that's been against a mixture of good and bad teams including a 1-2 loss to the other bottom of the table team Team Afro. I actually don't have the AHQ moneyline here either but I'll probably just stay put on this.
North American LCS 8/12 Schedule
(pending)
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