Thursday, August 2, 2018

Betting: August 3rd (LPL)

Something a little different here. A DOTA2 pick. Compliments of /u/sorryresponsibility for pointing out that the OpenAI Bot Team plays against the DotA Pros on Saturday. I found -313 on BOL and bet  the max on it. The bot has a 90% win rate in 1v1s and while I think it might be a little less than that in a team setting I think overcoming that type of individual mismatching is extremely difficult in MOBAs. I like the bots for 4 units.


LOL Pro League (China) 8/3 Schedule:

LGD Gaming (-156, -1.5 @ +185)
@ Over/Under 33:00, Total Kills 24.5
FunPlus Phoenix (+122, +1.5 @ -250)

BiliBili Gaming (-123, -1.5 @ +230)
@ Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 24.5

Team WE (-103, +1.5 @ -323)

Moneyline: BiliBili Gaming -123 (4 units)

Handicapped: BiliBili -1.5 maps @ +230 (1 unit)

The metagame is trending in a positive direction for both of these teams but the difference is that BiliBili were a top six team when this type of meta was more prevalent like it was the entirety of last season. Now they were starting Athena every game during that era but still I think this team is build for controlled, scaling stylings. Team WE are scary because they have a previous worlds lineup and this SHOULD be better. Maybe this is the match they reappear but BiliBili have looked much better recently now that they've settled into playing their own game instead of trying to imitate everyone else. Team WE remind me a lot of AHQ in the LMS, a former Worlds contending lineup that just either doesn't have it anymore or doesn't care anymore. However it's always challenging because teams like that can ocassionally show shadows of their former selves and that could happen here. The concern I have is that BiliBili don't really punish poor early games well and letting Team WE get through early game unphased is one of the only ways they can win. I'm mostly just betting on BiliBili being a better late game team as well.

The theme today is betting bad teams against each other which is something I normally limit myself on but these lines seems quite a bit off to me so I'm going to attack the poor lines regardless or the randomness of poor teams facing each other. I'm willing to take the hit here. Tail at your own risk.


Moneyline: FunPlus Phoenix +122 (4 units) 

I don't really understand why FunPlus are the underdogs here. Neither of these teams are particularly great but FunPlus are, to me at least, a bit above the true bottom dwellers of the LPL (Vici, LGD). That about sums this up. LGD should be better than they are, much like Team WE, but they just aren't. FunPlus have had their moments this season with wins against RNG and a game win against JD. LGD haven't had any of those with all their wins against low tier teams and even had a loss to Vici, who I consider the worst team in the LPL. Ultimately this is two bad teams so tail at your own risk  I'll limit what I'm wagering on this one for that exact reason but I'm going to try to attack what I'm viewing as a faulty line. FunPlus have side advantage and this line should probably be FPP -120 / LGD -105 or something like that. 

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