Friday, August 3, 2018

Betting: August 4th (LCK, LPL)

LOL Champions Korea 8/4 Schedule:

Griffin (-185, -1.5 @ +157)
@ Over/Under 35:00, Total Kills 17.5
SK Telecom (+144, +1.5 @ -204)

Gen.G eSports (-435, -1.5 @ -115)
@ Over/Under 35:00, Total Kills 16.5

Jin Air GW (+283, +1.5 @ -112)


Handicapped: Griffin -1.5 maps @ +162 (3 units)

Let's break the scenarios down for SKT making playoffs:

Hanwha and Afreeca are both currently 9-7 match score, 23-18 game score. SKT is 8-8 with 20-20 game score.

Hanhwa plays Afreeca and KT Rolster, Afreeca plays Hanwha and Jin Air, SKT plays Griffin and Kingzone.

If SKT were to 2-0, 2-0 their next two matches it would still only put them at 10-8 match score and 24-20 game score. In order for SKT to make playoffs they would need Afreeca to exactly 2-1 Hanwha and then 0-2 against Jin Air which would put them to 25-21 game score. That would put both teams at +4, which is the first tiebreaker. The second tiebreaker is head to head record. SKT hold the 2-0 match record for the season. This EXACT situation is the ONLY way SKT can make playoffs since they don't hold the head to head against Hanwha.

With SK Telecom more or less mathematically eliminated from playoff contention I wouldn't be surprised to see the subs playing here. Griffin on the other hand are still in the tangle at the top of the standings battling for playoff seeding. So the question is do we think Griffin win this even with SKT literally fighting for their season lives in game one? I think they do. I've been saying Griffin have a lot of vulenrabilities but SKT have many more. I don't see SKT taking a game here. Even if they go back to Faker despite being better with Pirean I just don't see it happening. The reason I'm not going heavier on this is because SK Telecom do have side selection and this bet hinges a lot on game one. If SKT lose game one this is basically a lock to 2-0 as either the subs will be put in or SKT will not really have anything to play for in game two. Griffin have faltered as of late but they're on a whole other level compared to SKT. Check back for updates on Twitter as I may actually up the wager on this.


Handicapped: Gen.G -1.5 maps @ -115 (3 units)

Similar to the previous match except Jin Air have nothing to play for. Gen.G have been excellent this season. They just stuck to what they were good at and got rewarded for it. Coincidentally both of these teams play the same style. Slow, scaling, protect the carry. Gen.G are just better at it and also have the added upside of potentially just obliterating lanes so hard that it becomes easy to close a game out. I'm aware that Jin Air have looked better recently but with a lot on the line I don't think Gen.G will mess around. Again check back for updates closer to game time I might up this.


LOL Pro League (China) 8/4 Schedule:

Royal Never Give Up (-357, -1.5 @ -120)
@ Over/Under 334:00, Total Kills 24.5
Snake eSports (+258, +1.5 @ -111)

Suning Gaming (-192, -1.5 @ +156)
@ Over/Under 33:00, Total Kills 25.5
TopSports Gaming (+148, +1.5 @ -208)

Invictus Gaming (-154, -1.5 @ +162)
@ Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 24.5

Rogue Warriors (+120, +1.5 @ -217)

Handicapped: RNG -1.5 maps @ -115 (2 units)

I'm in a weird spot on this RNG team. I want to think they're now a tier 2 team and aren't elite anymore without Uzi playing but they've been scrapping and winning a lot of sloppy games and "getting the job done." Snake on the other hand just look off. Every time it looks like they've figured it out they either run into a good team and just get smashed. If you consider RNG a tier 2 squad now that puts them in line with teams like JD (maybe JD is better now?) and Suning, both of whom just convincingly 2-0d Snake. The question here is whether or not Flandre can carry this game by himself for Snake because they're outmatched at every other position including RNG's sub ADC Able. I don't think he can. If you think he can then I think the RNG 2-1 exact score is more what you're looking for. RNG should sweep this. Xiaohu has been on an absolute tear as of late and Karsa finally seems to be settling in with RNG and is showing his LMS dominant form. Mostly this is just that Snake just can't seem to put everything together. Outside of one match win against EDG in Week 3 this roster hasn't beaten a top half team. They did take one game off of Invictus with an unexpected funnel composition but other than that and the EDG wins they haven't even taken games off of Suning or JD. I have non-Uzi RNG in that Suning/JD tier. If you think Flandre can break serve with side selection and a counterpick then feel free to bet the 2-1 but I'm thinking RNG can hold off game one and smash game two.


Moneyline: Suning Gaming -175 (3 units)

Handicapped: Suning -1.5 maps @ +171 (1 unit)

Suning have been quite good this past week with 2-0's against the middling Snake and FunPlus. Before that they lost to Team WE which is concerning and punted a game to OMG. Other than these instances this has been a solid team that's been taking games off of top teams like RW, IG, and JD. Suning are exceptionally good at what they do and fit the current 2.5 carry metagame extremely well. This is the wheelhouse H4cker, Angel, and Fury want to live in and they've been thriving. TopSports have been surprisingly decent but very VERY inconsistent. Losses to LGD, OMG, and a BiliBili that was struggling mightily at the time certainly don't look good on their resume but they've also taken games off of Invictus and even won a 2-1 series against JD. If you consider RNG, JD, and Suning in a similar level then we can extrapolate a bit based on TSG's recent matches against those teams which haven't looked particularly great outside of the JD win. I also think this team has been overperforming all season. This isn't a great team. Their record is a bit better than they actually are and Suning are in a great spot at the moment. I think there's a pretty good shot of a Suning 2-0 here but I'm going to stick mostly to the moneyline.


Prop: IG vs RW OVER 2.5 maps played @ +107 (2 units)

My gut tells me Invictus win this 2-1 but Rogue Warriors might win 2-1 with side selection. Regardless I think we're going to three games here. These are, in my opinion, the two best teams in the LPL right now so I'm looking forward to this match but don't have a strong enough leaning either way. Should be a close match!

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