Monday, July 30, 2018

Betting: July 31st (LCK)

LOL Champions Korea 7/31 Schedule:

Griffin (-909, -1.5 @ -303)
@ Over/Under 32:00, Total Kills 17.5
Jin Air GW (+541, +1.5 @ +217)

Kingzone DragonX (-238, -1.5 @ +129)
@ Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 18.5

Hanwha Life eSports (+180, +1.5 @ -169)

Handicapped: Kingzone -1.5 maps @ +129  (3 units)

Kingzone appear to have finally hit their stride after beating both KT Rolster and Afreeca back to back. Hanwha on the other hand have struggled with BBQ and Jin Air back to back after losing 0-2 to SK Telecom. So here's the deal. HLE need this game but I think there's a certain element to them being "figured out" at play here. They've not only been messing with their roster, something I don't think they'll do tomorrow, but even the starters have been relatively inconsistent. For a team that's done well based on consistency, competitiveness, and coaching/strategy they haven't looked any of those characteristics recently. They're like the Diet Afreeca Freecs. Steady, competitive, but lacking the high ceiling some of these elite teams have so they can only be so good.

Hanwha do NEED this series win as both Afreeca and SK Telecom are breathing down their necks their 5th seed is no longer secure. However Kingzone need the victory as well. With the top of the table so competitive in Korea playoff seeding is going to be crucial and Kingzone could potentially still take 1st place. Both teams should show up for this match. To me the difference is that Kingzone are one of those elite teams and are currently playing at a higher level than Hanwha are. Not only that but they have a much higher upside and could potentially perform even better. You're welcome to hedge this as the KZ 2-1 exact score sits at +228 currently but I'm going to just run the naked handicap bet out there for a few units.


Griffin vs Jin Air GW

(UPDATE: This line has grown to obscene numbers I'm willing to throw half a unit at the +1.5 and a quarter unit on the ML)

Handicapped: Jin Air +1.5 @ +217 (0.5 unit)

Moneyline: Jin Air +541 (0.25 unit)

Yesterday this line was at Griffin -667 but it's currently locked. I've got a funny feeling, much like the MVP bullet we dodged the other day, that this won't be a sweep which is the only way to bet it in my opinoin. Griffin should win but I have a hunch that they'll drop a game. Jin Air have looked better. Not good, but better. The metagame also favors their playstyle a lot more. I'm just dodging this one outside of some big parlays involving Griffin ML. The juice is too much and I'm not feeling the sweep. If the odds are sub -200 though knock yourself out.

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