Friday, July 27, 2018

Betting: July 28th (LCK, LPL, EU LCS, NA LCS

LOL Champions Korea 7/28 Schedule:

Kingzone DragonX (-120, -1.5 @ +261)
@ Over/Under 36:00, Total Kills 18.5
Afreeca Freecs (-105, +1.5 @ -370)

Griffin (-769, -1.5 @ -217)
@ Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 17.5

MVP (+463, +1.5 @ +165)

Moneyline: Kingzone DragonX -120 (5 units)

Handicapped: Kingzone -1.5 maps @ +261 (0.5 units)

Kingzone vs KT was one of the better series this year in any league and I'd highly recommend watching it over. It's what super high level series' look like. Both teams next leveling each other constantly, on the same page, coherent compositions and draft strategies and the ebb and flow that elite teams display when going back and forth with in game adjustments to one another. It was a real joy to watch. So what did we learn? Well, first of all, I picked a bad time to abandon my faith in Kingzone but secondly, and perhaps most importantly, Kingzone won both games against KT playing standard 2-core compositions. I sure hope they take that as a clue to "not fix it if it ain't broke" moving forward because they look so much better that way. If you asked me that a year ago or even last split I would've called you crazy but hey, things change and this team looks so much better playing "traditional." KT was also excellent but Khan just popped off in game one and game three had a few tremendous outplays (I'm talking the kind you see once in a hundred matches) or that likely would have gone their way with Azir and Kaisa scaling. KT also seem to be realizing that they should just play to their strengths and play "traditional." It looks like a lot of the top teams are having more success sticking to their bread and butter than trying to mimic non-standard picks we've seen this season especially since a lot of them have been toned down in power.

Afreeca had a weird loss to BBQ Olivers where they were more or less experimenting in champ select in all three games and got punished for it. They then lost 1-2 to Gen.G, who look like one of the top three teams right now and punted a game one before immediately smashing MVP in two 26 minute stomps. This is a team that played a competitive series with KT Rolster and 2-0'd Griffin. They're a good team but to me a cut below the elite teams in Korea. If I had to tier list Korea it'd be Gen.G, KT Rolster, and Kingzone (yes I know ....) at the top based mostly on recent performance and where I project them to end up. In the next tier I have Griffin and Afreeca, the teams that are great and a cut above the middling teams in a deep LCK but to me aren't quite on the same level. I'm going to get a lot of flack for Griffin being this low but I'm not disrespecting this team. They're excellent and have shown remarkable poise for such a young roster. We're also trending toward a meta that is more like the one they dominated in the Challenger scene with but they also weren't facing the top teams in the world who also mastered and won world championships with that disciplined, scaling style. To me it just has to do with ceilings. Griffin have shown vulnerabilites and while a lot of teams have failed the test, the answers are right there and with time will be figured out. Griffin are very one dimensional... anyway I digress this isn't about them directly.

Kingzone just beat KT Rolster in one of the higher level series of the year and I think that that win will cement them in the style that won them those games. This is a team with an atmospheric ceiling that finally looks like they have found the lane to drive in. Even with all the ups and downs this season Kingzone are STILL 9-5 and only a win out of first (two if you assume Griffin beats MVP). Seeding is going to be crucial in such a competitive region. As always it's sad that Korea only gets to send three teams to worlds but it is what it is. I like Kingzone a lot here. That sounds crazy and I've been burned by them all season but watch that last series and tell me this isn't a team that looks primed for a run. You'd have a hard time doing that. It's not just the KT win. It's been a long season of Kingzone often winning a series despite not looking great or not looking comfortable or themselves. They were winning series just based on raw talent and experience. Not only did they just play an insanely high level series against KT and win but they looked damn good and confident doing it. I think this is Kingzone's moment to arrive. They looked invigorated and I'm going to ride with them here. I just think Afreeca have been slowly trending downward. It doesn't mean they're bad just trending the opposite direction, even if slightly.


Griffin vs MVP: No action 

I know this team is different, I know they're actually good, and I know MVP are terrible but I've just got a bad feeling about playing this match at all. -217 isn't out of range for the -1.5 but I have this feeling that even showing the poise they've shown this season a rookie team isn't invulnerable to pressure and this feels like a classic upset situation to me. I don't think it's likely MVP win a map but I'm uncomfortable enough with it to avoid this one. -217 isn't good enough for me to take a shot on even with the bad feeling.


LOL Pro League (China) 7/28 Schedule:

BiliBili Gaming -256 (-1.5 @ +126)
@ Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 25.5
OMG (+192, +1.5 @ -164)

Rogue Warriors (-435, -1.5 @ -130)
@ Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 24.5
LGD Gaming (+307, +1.5 @ +100)

Invictus Gaming (-217, -1.5 @ +148)
@ Over/Under 35:00, Total Kills 24.5
EDward Gaming (+165, +1.5 @ -196)

Handicapped: BiliBili -1.5 maps @ +126 (0.5 units) 

I've been getting utterly destroyed in the LPL and am now officially under .500 on my picks for the season there but I like a "we've found ourselves" story and it appears BiliBili have hit a bit of a stride. OMG, while gusty and scrappy are just not that good of a team and just got completely smashed by LGD who are, in my opinion, one of the two worst teams in the LPL. I'm talking like 51 minutes total game time smashed... OMG admittedly played Yasuo bot which is about as good as it sounds (I know it's not that bad but come on...). OMG also struggled to beat Vici, who are the other worst team in the LPL. I thought for a few weeks that this team might be separating themselves from the muck at the bottom of the lake here but it looks like they were just trying to pick themselves up out of it and failed. 


Handicapped: Rogue Warriors -1.5 maps @ -130 (3.5 units)

I'll admit to being gunshy here because I've been horrid in the LPL the past couple weeks but in all but one series my logic was sound and teams just punted a game and immediately smashed so it stands to reason that things will correct. I'll likely add on to this tomorrow. This is simple. Rogue Warriors are one of the elite LPL teams. Top four, perhaps three with RNG in their current situation. LGD are the worst or second worst team in the LPL. I think this line is only at -130 because LGD just won a series agains the similarly horrible OMG as we just discussed. This should probably be a -200 or more line. Feel free to be less timid than I am and smash this.


Invictus vs EDG: (pending)

I'm leaning on taking the Invictus -1.5 @ +148 or the exact IG 2-1 @ +217 but I'm not sure how much yet, probably light like a unit or two. Invictus are a god damn machine and while they've been dropping a game here or there to middling teams I still think they're the best team in China and they'll play up to their opponents here. The counterargument here is that EDG is the strongest team they've faced in nearly four weeks (RNG on 6/30) so there's reason to go with the underdogs here. I think this is one of those weird bets where you just need to plant your flag and go with that one. You're either in on the underdog for the upset or IG for the sweep because the value isn't there at the +1.5. 


EU LCS (Europe) 7/28 Schedule:



NA LCS (North America) 7/28 Schedule:


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