Wednesday, July 25, 2018

Betting: July 26th (LCK)

Weird day yesterday where we had a predictable slate but got hard punished on the handicap plays. That being said I think this was a brush with variance. We had three out of our four handicap plays appear to be the better team being lazy, taking the game off, or totally disrespecting their foe. Oh well, at least we dodged MVP and hit a few moneyline parlays.


LOL Champions Korea 7/26 Schedule:

Kingzone DragonX (-101, +1.5 @ -313)
@ Over/Under 35:00, Total Kills 18.5
KT Rolster (-127, -1.5 @ +222)

Gen.G eSports (-108, +1.5 @ -333)
@ Over/Under 35:00, Total Kills 17.5

Griffin (-118, -1.5 @ +235)

Moneyline: KT Rolster -127 (5 units)

Handicapped: KT Rolster -1.5 maps @ +222 (0.5 units)

KT Rolster have somewhat quietly won eight of their last ten series including victories against Gen.G and Griffin twice each, and Afreeca as well. Their two losses were to HLE and SK Telecom. I don't think it's unreasonable to call KT the best team in the world currently, as a matter of fact I would. The fear is that the KT Rollercoaster inevitably ebbs and flows. I'm actually going to plant my flag here and say that KT aren't going to go on a downturn the rest of the season. They've settled into the drafts and compositions that work well for them and until the metagame drastically changes I can't see this team not being a favorite against anybody. I'd consider Gen.G and Griffin the next best teams in Korea right now the thing they all have in common is that they know exactly who they are and they aren't trying to copy or imitate they simply do what they're good at which is something I think Kingzone and SK Telecom (although this team isn't going to worlds this year) should take note of. Their game one victory against Gen.G took a Ruler misplay but both of those teams were just throwing haymakers back and forth at each other and both teams elevated. That was one of the higher level individual games this season not because it was strategically perfect necessarily but because of how both teams reacted to the changing situations in game and how quickly they did so. That's a characteristic of great teams.

Kingzone... man oh man. So I've felt pretty strongly that this is eventually going to be the best team in the world this season but they certainly aren't that right now. They're still a top five Korean team with tremendous upside but they look a bit lost right now. I haven't liked many of their drafts since Rift Rivals and that's been one of the major problems. This team could easily make some adjustments and return to form but I've been saying that "they've got this one" for two weeks now and it hasn't been the case. Yes they've won matches but they haven't been drafting well in those situations and against the level competition in Korea this season you can't just play your way out of a paper bag of a draft. This could end up being an absolute slugfest of a series if Kingzone actually stick to what they're good at which is more traditional team compositions. As a matter of fact they should look at what KT is doing, maybe they'll learn a thing or two.

I like KT Rolster quite a bit here. While they haven't been completely dismantling good teams left and right they have been adapting to situations within game, clearly identified who they are and what they're good at, and are playing to their win conditions regardless of the opponent. Mata and Score have also been particularly good in this run and Smeb has looked like his peak form in the most recent matches as well.


Gen.G vs Griffin: Slight lean on Gen.G right now, check back later

I think for as good as Griffin have been Gen.G have been just as good with a couple boneheaded exceptions. Gen.G had the exact right gameplan for taking down Griffin and it's been used since to beat them. I also think Gen.G have looked the best they've looked since Worlds last year in the past few weeks. This to me is a poor stylistic matchup for the Griffin we've seen in the LCK. They've been winning but in their past couple series they've shown a lot of vulnerabilities. I think Gen.G will take them down this time. I'm not sure how I'm going to play this but I'm leaning Gen.G for sure. Going to wait to see if there's any line movement in our favor here.

No comments:

Post a Comment