Friday, July 13, 2018

Betting: July 14th (LCK, LPL, LMS, EU LCS, NA LCS)

LOL Champions Korea 7/14 Schedule:

Kingzone DragonX (-1667, -1.5 @ -278)

@ (O/U: 32:00 minutes, 18.5 total kills)
Jin Air GW (+759, +1.5 @ +194)


MVP (-217, -1.5 @ +138)

@ (O/U: 34:00 minutes, 19.5 total kills)
BBQ Olivers (+165, +1.5 @ -182)



Handicapped: MVP -1.5 maps @ +145 (1 unit)

Handicapped: MVP -1.5 maps @  +138 (3 units) (ADD ON)


I feel really sketchy putting 4 units on MVP but after watching BBQ get obliterated by Jin Air, the likely 9th place team in LCK who are in a meta that's bad for them, this team looked defeated. This BBQ team used to have spunk. They'd fight and make aggressive plays and if they lost then they lost but they always fought. MVP are potentially still in playoff contention although I wouldn't call it likely so they need to have these "free" wins when they come up if they want to have a chance to be competing. MVP have looked really good relative to them. Much better than they did last split. Their only "bad" losses have come to the elite teams. This feels weird but I think MVP can take care of business here. BBQ just look awful. They don't know what roster works, they looked defeated, and I'd say MVP are better than Jin Air in this current metagame and Jin Air smashed BBQ.


---------------------------------------------------




LOL Pro League (China) 7/14 Schedule:



Snake eSports (-227, -1.5 @ +129)

@ (O/U: ?? minutes, ??? total kills)
LGD Gaming (+175, +1.5 @ -169)


Invictus Gaming (-909, -1.5 @ -192)

@ (O/U: ?? minutes, ?? total kills)
FunPlus Phoenix (+538, +1.5 @ +139)


Rogue Warriors (-227, -1.5 @ +138)

@ (O/U: ?? minutes, ?? total kills)

Suning Gaming (+172, +1.5 @ -182)





Handicapped: Snake eSports -1.5 maps @ +145 (3 units)


My unit wagers show that I'm a little less confident in this wager than I would have been last split but I think the week off could do wonders for Snake who really looked lost before the break after getting destroyed by TopSports in under 50 minutes total. That being said I think they're a good team with great players and LGD are just a complete mess. This feels like a "get right" situation for Snake to get back in contention with the big teams. I don't think they're on that level anymore but they should be able to put a horrible LGD team down.

-----------------------------------------------------



Handicapped: Invictus Gaming -1.5 maps @ -175 (10 units) (PICK OF THE WEEK)

FunPlus were one of the worst teams in the league last split and started off "hot" relative to last season with wins over WE and a game win against EDG. This team got destroyed by Snake and Rogue Warriors in quick 2-0 losses and I expect Invictus, who were undefeated prior to a loss to RNG before Rift Rivals. to utterly smash them here. I love the under bets in these games too if they're anything 31:00 or more and might even go as low as 29:00 when they're posted. Invictus are one of the best teams on the planet and FunPlus are overrated even for a bad team. This should be a sub 60 minute total victory easy. The only reason this line isn't -1.5 @ -250 or greater is because FunPlus have a couple flukey wins this season. Take the line value when you see it because you're not going to see a line this low again for Invictus against a bad team.


----------------------------------------------------------


Handicapped: Rogue Warriors -1.5 maps @ +145 (4 units)

Suning started off the season 3-0 with wins over three of the worst four teams in the current metagame in Vici, LGD, and BBG. They were then smashed by RNG and played a slugfest of a match against fellow mid tier team JD. They even took a game off Invictus after being gifted a draft with a perfect Kaisa funnel composition. I don't think they're going to get any more freebies against good teams. Suning are good but not great. Rogue Warriors, I'd argue with Uzi now sitting the rest of the season, are the second best team in China behind Invictus and you could make an argument for them being the best. This is a team that smashes opposing squads that aren't other elite teams. They rarely drop games to mid tier or lower teams. As good as Suning have been I think they're extremely one dimensional and reliant upon two strategies that are very predictable. Firstly Fenfen has only really had success with Darius counterpicks and has otherwise selected Irelia 7 times and she's been nerfed. Teams are also way smarter to not give up funnel compositions anymore which is how Suning stole a game from Invictus. With those two strategies out the window I don't see a way Suning stand toe to toe with RW. DoinB should run train on Fenfen here but RW outclass Suning in every other position as well so I'm not sure it will matter.


-------------------------------------------------------

League Masters Series (Taiwan) 7/14 Schedule:



MAD Team (-313, -1.5 @ +111)

@ (O/U: ?? minutes, ??? total kills)
AHQ eSports (+209, +1.5 @ -161)


Machi eSports (+272, +1.5 @ -125)

(O/U: ?? minutes, ??? total kills)
Hong Kong Attitude (-435, -1.5 @ -115)




Moneyline: AHQ eSports +209 (1 unit)

At first glance MAD look to be in a good spot with wins against J Team and G-Rex who were 2nd and 3rd place last split as well as a convincing win against last place Machi but upon further investigation you'd find that those squads are not the same teams and aren't performing as well as they did last split. In other words they're completely different so this number just looks impressive. MAD haven't had to face a good team yet. Is AHQ good? Absolutely not but I don't think MAD is -313 better than ANYONE besides maybe Machi and maybe Afro. AHQ have good enough players to outplay and steal some games here.



-----------------------------------------------------------------------

Handicapped: Hong Kong Attitude -1.5 maps @ -115 (2 units) 


The new look Hong Kong Attitude have looked really solid and Machi are one of the two worst teams in the league. Sketchy putting the handicap here but I think the value is good enough to go 2 units on the sweep.

------------------------------------------------------------------


EU LCS (Europe) 7/14 Schedule:



Unicorns of Love -139 @ H2K +110

Splyce -175 @ FC Schalke 04 +137
G2 eSports -500 @ Giants +344
Fnatic -286 @ ROCCAT +214
Misfits -222 @ Team Vitality +171

Moneyline: ROCCAT +214 (1 unit)


Fnatic are going to continue not playing Rekkles and they'll continue to punt random games to mid table teams like Splyce and, you guessed it, ROCCAT. By the way, this ROCCAT squad has been super fun to watch and Memento has been an absolute all star pleading his case for MVP. He's hard carrying this team and he could create enough chaos and pressure the right spots enough to cause problems for a Fnatic team that, while not lost, isn't looking like themselves.

Moneyline: Schalke 04 +147 (1 unit)

I know people are high on Splyce but I think Schalke and Splyce are kind of in the same tier right now where we know they're good but they're not really as good as the top teams. Either way I think this line should be a little closer so I'm willing to take a flyer on the underdogs here. 



Moneyline: H2K +110 (1 unit)

Similar to the above pick, when you have two relatively even teams in a best of one format I'm willing to take a flyer on the underdog for cheap. I know people say H2K are the worst team in the EU LCS but I think UOL are just as bad so to me this is a push and I'll try the +110 especially with side selection.


I must have entered these and didn't submit them like an idiot so these are void for numbers reasons.
----------------------------------------------------------------


NA LCS (North America) 7/14 Schedule:

Echo Fox -154 @ Counter Logic Gaming +121

Team Solo Mid -159 @ 100 Thieves +125
Clutch Gaming -238 @ Golden Guardians +180
Team Liquid -357 @ OpTic Gaming +259
Cloud 9 ?? @ FlyQuest ??

Moneyline: Echo Fox -154 (3 units)

I'm willing to eat my hat on this one. Echo Fox coach Inero has stepped down and I think people are going to overreact to this. Echo Fox are significantly better than CLG even when CLG is playing "well." Especially after a rough Rift Rivals I think Echo Fox will be glad to be back home and I expect them to get right by smashing CLG. The tale of the tape here shows about as much as six games can show but it's something. Both teams have similar gold differential numbers but that's only over a six game sample size and only one win separates these two. The biggest difference to me is that Echo Fox are dealing an obscene 2171 damage per minute as a team this season which is one of the highest numbers in ANY LEAGUE. CLG for comparison are doing 1704. If you want to break this down by damage per gold Echo Fox only earn slightly more gold at 1828 vs CLG's 1775. What does this mean? Echo Fox are doing A LOT MORE WITH LESS. CLG's victories have come from early snowballs with Olaf into an Olaf+Ornn bulldozer or from a weird 40+ minute slugfest against the slow playing Clutch. They aren't going to be able get that kind of snowball against the dominant individual players and strong early jungle presence on Echo Fox. I think this is a pretty severe mismatch and is earning my strongest non-special wager for best of one, regular season plays, of three.


Moneyline: Team Solo Mid -159  (3 units)

TSM still don't quite look like themselves but they've also had the week to prepare for their second half run. 100 Thieves looked unexciting at Rift Rivals but they've been back for a week and I'm not expecting any sort of hangover effect here. I think TSM are just the better team here. The stats will tell you these two teams are even as both their gold and damage numbers are very similar but considering Grig can only get better and TSM had a full two weeks to prep for this specific weekend I fully expect them to have the advantage here. This is pretty heavily a hunch/gut call so tail at your own risk.


1 comment:

  1. Hey Gelati

    Got any thoughts on LoL Worlds futures?

    See any value on any of the favorites? Or any value in some of the tier 2 teams that have great odds which would present value in hedging as they go deep into the later rounds?
    Generally I find it profitable to hedge against futures which I placed on teams with great value that are likely to make deep runs, and was wondering if you have any insight here.

    Thanks for your contributions, your knowledge is much appreciated!

    ReplyDelete