Tuesday, April 3, 2018

Betting: April 4th (LCK Playoffs / LPL)

LCK Playoffs April 4th Schedule:

SK Telecom (+156, +1.5 @ -123, M1 +124, M2 +130, M3 +125)
@ (Over/Under 37:00, Total Kills 17.5)
KT Rolster (-208, -1.5 @ -104, M1 -161, M2 -169, M3 -164)

Moneyline: KT Rolster -192 (10 units) 

Handicapped: KT Rolster -1.5 maps @ +110 (5 units)

Prop: Exact Score KT 3-0 @ +293 (1 unit)

Prop: Exact Score KT 3-1 @ +260 (1 unit)

So I had an idea I was going to bet this under the assumption that SKT won in the fashion they did and that's what you see here. It's VERY heavy handed. People will cite the "Telecom War" and how they're always close series but the truth is, at least this season, that Kingzone, KT Rolster, and Afreeca have a huge lead on SKT, KSV, and ROX in overall quality. As happy as I was to see SK Telecom sneak into playoffs (as I called it) the truth is they weren't going to go past the first round at any point no matter how optimistic I am. This series has a lot of history but KT Rolster, as well as Kingzone, were built for when a meta shift like this one happens. They're extremely good in the early game, have superior laners at all positions except mid, and have the better, more experienced jungler in Score. Whether Pawn or UCal start I think KT are just miles better than SKT and they showed it the last time they played swapping mids between games with both putting in excellent performances. 

I placed this wager on Monday morning and the line has since moved to KT Rolster -208. It's a bit steep but I think a 3-0 or a 3-1 are the most likely outcomes here. This SK Telecom team isn't nearly the quality of years past and while weird things do happen, and they have this season in the LCK, I'm willing to lay a significant amount on this pick. This is strictly about quality. This KT team has been too good for the past year an a half and just snakebitten. I think they shake the rattler off here and absolutely obliterate SKT.


LPL April 4th Schedule:

LGD Gaming (-357, -1.5 @ -112, M1 -263, M2 -278, M3 -204)
@ (Over/Under 33:00, Total Kills 22.5)
TopSports Gaming (+257, +1.5 @ -115, M1 +194, M2 +205, M3 +154)

Snake eSports (-769, -1.5 @ -196, M1 -455, M2 -500, M2 -278)
@ (Over/Under ??, Total Kills ???)
OMG (+469, +1.5 @ +149, M1 +309, M2 +332, M3 +203)

Handicapped: LGD Gaming -1.5 maps @ -112 (4 units)

LGD have been absolutely rolling recently and seemed to have found their identity in the post-Imp era by winning their past three series against RNG, JDG and Suning which are three playoff quality teams (maybe not JD but who's nitpicking). They've even taken games off of EDG and played a close one against Rogue Warriors in game two of that series. They've really come into their own. You could make the argument that this is "their SuperBowl" for TopSports who have only one game remaining agianst RNG after this but this team, while stealing a game here and there, is just not that good. I think with Jinoo playing at the level he's been playing at he can match TopSports only real weapon in Marin especially with a the top lane pool opening up a bit. 

This is a classic case of two teams with "nothing to play for" after very early playoff eliminations but LGD really developing with their roster change and new approach while TopSports seems to be floundering to find a roster that works together and are playing glorified solo queue. I LOVE LGD to sweep this especially because they lost 1-2 the first time these teams faced a few weeks back while LGD was struggling.


Handicapped: Snake eSports -1.5 maps @ -196 (4 units)

Snake have been in a really weird funk the past couple weeks but I think OMG are just what the doctor ordered. No they're not as bad as they were early in the season but Snake have now lost their #1 seed to EDG with bot teams having two matches to play each with one easy and one medium difficulty foe. Snake will be taking this game seriously and with a fresh patch to play with our boy Flandre could cook up something spicy for us in the top lane. 


Parlay: KT Rolster -1.5 @ -104, LGD -1.5 @ -112, Snake -1.5 @ -196  (2 units to win ~11 units)

I feel pretty confident about the triple sweep today but some of the moneylines are a tad steep to go too heavy so we'll couple them for a parlay.


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