Monday, April 2, 2018

Betting: April 3rd (LPL)

LPL April 3rd Schedule:

Invictus Gaming (-909, -1.5 @ -159, M1 -417, M2 -417, M3 -370)
@ (Over/Under 33:00, Total Kills 21.5)
Suning Gaming (+520, +1.5 @ +122, M1 +291, M2 +291, M3 +261)

EDward Gaming (-244, -1.5 @ +136, M1 -204, M2 -204, M3 -161)
@ (Over/Under ??, Total Kills ???)
FunPlus Phoenix (+184, +1.5 @ -179, M1 +154, M2 +154, M3 +154)

Handicapped: Invictus -1.5 @ -159  (2 units)

Invictus actually have nothing to play for and nothing to show while Suning are in a heated battle with JDG for the #4 seed. Really what this match boils down to is do we think that Invictus can stomp Suning without even caring about this match? IG just whooped on Rogue Warriors in the exact same situation, first seed already locked up, no reason to play it hard other than to send a message. I expect Invictus will be up for this game as they have with their others. This team is a bunch of terminators. They don't seem to care about "bad spots" or "playing for nothing." That being said, I'm keeping this wager limited both because of the odds and because Suning absolutely must have this game. 

I'm kind of talking myself into the underdogs here... maybe I'll hedge this after the fact...

Moneyline:  Suning Gaming +520  (0.5 units)


Handicapped: EDward Gaming -1.5 @ +136 (2 units)

So yesterday I talked about WE needing a win to pull ahead of FunPlus for the #4 seed which they did but I also said that I'd assumed FPP would lose to EDG. That hasn't changed but I'm having a tough time figuring out how I think that will happen. It's been a long time since these teams first faced off in the first week of the season and FunPlus have been competitive the past couple of weeks while battling for their playoff spot. Meanwhile EDG have dropped games here and there to some weaker teams so why am I going with EDG for the 2-0? Because I think FPP are the fairtale that ends badly and because I think this metagame is exceptionally good for EDG's carry top laner Ray as much or more so than it is for GimGoon. FPP more or less only win when he's popping off and Ray should be able to dominate him. This is a poor matchup and bad timing in a crucial time for FPP but I think EDG take this 2-0.


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