Sunday, April 1, 2018

Betting: April 2nd (LPL)

LPL April 2nd Schedule:

Team WE (-526, -1.5 @ -145, M1 -345, M2 -370, M3 -250)
@ (Over/Under ??, Total Kills ??)
Vici Gaming (+359, +1.5 @ +111, M1 +248, M2 +258, M3 +185)




Rogue Warriors (-156, -1.5 @ +184, M1 -147, M2 -145, M3 -135)
@ (Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 21.5)
Royal Never Give Up (122, +1.5 @ -250, M1 +113, M2 +111, M3 +104)



Moneyline: Royal Never Give Up +122  (2 units)

Both of these teams are coming off of rough losses, RNG a 1-2 loss to bottom dwellers LGD and Rogue Warriors to much stronger competition in Invictus and Suning. This bet comes down to a couple factors for me.

  • To me these two teams are just a little closer to even then this when they're both playing at an expected level. Rogue Warriors have been more consistent but RNG also played the first half of the season without their best player.
  • Rogue Warriors have locked up 2nd place and can no longer catch Invictus in first place so they have nothing to play for but momentum and I expect they'll be hesitant to show anything new unless they want to as misdirection.
  • RNG could move two match wins ahead of Suning gaming for the 3rd spot and avoid a first round playoff match with Invictus so I'd expect they're going to be "up" for this game unlike RW. 
  • RNG have the best single player in this game in Uzi.
  • Line value is too good for the situation/context.
I'm limiting this play because Rogue Warriors could very well care about this game but I'm willing to put a couple units on that not being the case. I love the value we're getting here with two close to even teams with one having nothing to play for and the other the ability to avoid Invictus juggernaut in the first round.


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Handicapped: Team WE -1.5 maps @ -145  (3 units)


With a match win Team WE can move two games ahead of FunPlus Phoenix and more than likely lock up their #4 seed when FunPlus loses to EDG on Tuesday. Vici have shown some fight recently but this is still a bottom of the table team, perhaps the worst or second worst in the league and have dropped all but two series all season (one against OMG and one against LGD). Now Team WE have shown a tendency to drop games to inferior teams which make this wager a bit scary in an against the model type of way but I feel pretty confident in WE to smash this series and set themselves up to secure a playoff birth with wins against either Snake or OMG (OMG more likely) later this week.




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