These are what I believe the line should be not what I think the books will put it at. I will write this down before looking at the lines the books set for the day as a gauge of whether or not my expectations are in or out of line on the game. I typically weigh my own expectations a lot more because unlike in traditional sports I don't think the books know what they're doing or they just let an algorithm set their lines.
ROX Tigers @ SK Telecom -200 (66.6%)
Kingzone -233 (70%) @ Afreeca
Giants -233 (70%) @ H2K
ROCCAT -122 (55%) @ Unicorns of Love
Misfits -150 @ Team Vitality
Schalke 04 -122 (55%) @ Splyce
G2 eSports -108 (52%) @ Fnatic
100 Thieves @ Cloud 9 -400 (80%)
CLG @ Clutch -233 (70%)
TSM @ Echo Fox -122 (55%)
Golden Guardians @ OpTic Gaming -122 (55%)
Team Liquid -186 (65%) @ FlyQuest
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North American LCS February 24th Schedule:
100 Thieves +208 @ Cloud 9 -278
Counter Logic Gaming +125 @ Clutch Gaming -161
Team Solo Mid +149 @ Echo Fox -200
Golden Guardians +122 @ OpTic Gaming -167
Team Liquid -286 @ FlyQuest +199
Moneyline: Cloud 9 -278 (4 units)
Moneyline: UNDER 37:00 @ -116 (2 units)
This feels like a trap game but I'm going to put my faith in Cloud 9 to put a mediocre 100 Thieves team away. Cloud 9 are absolutely stomping everybody except for Echo Fox and they punish passive teams with uptempo playmaking and aggressive teams by taking a single mistake and ending a game on it (like they did against TSM). 100 Thieves are simply too passive to reliably beat this C9 team in my opinion. I set this line at -400. With side choice I don't think 100 Thieves will be able to devastatingly surprised C9 with anything in the draft so I'm comfortable laying 4 here as well as the under because 37 is just way out of line for this patch and how fast Cloud 9 plays.
Result: LOSS
Result: WIN
This game felt like Cloud 9 calling out 100 Thieves not being able to play early, picking a full scaling comp, and then 100 Thieves was like "nah." Like holy shit when are these top teams going to learn that you can't do this... its infuriating. Luckily I was able to hedge most of this back but damn...
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Moneyline: Clutch Gaming -161 (2 units)
(UPDATE: Added 5 units @ -125 right before the won baron before elder)
This feels like a spot I'd completely slam Clutch because of how underrated I think they are and how overrated CLG still is but this feels like a must win for CLG. With Golden Guardians on the slate for tomorrow a 2-0 this weekend could put CLG back into playoff contention but a 1-1 combined with wins from Liquid, Clutch, and FlyQuest could really put a dent in their playoff hopes.
- CLG have lost their last 4. Clutch have won their last 4.
- Clutch absolutely destroyed CLG off of some early mistakes in their first matchup.
- CLG D/GPM: 1.2 Clutch D/GPM: 0.98
- Gold differential per min: CLG = -146 Clutch = +75
- CLG is the stronger early game team and outputs more damage per gold overall (likely from playing more 3 core style compositions).
- I prefer Lira + Febiven to Reignover + Huhi even with meta considerations.
- CLG have not been able to close with massive gold leads.
- Clutch have the strongest player in the game in Febiven.
I'm giving a lot of respect to the meta morphing to something more in CLG's wheelhouse but I still think Clutch take this game. Huhi is CLG's strongest player despite being really overrated and this tempo based metagame is excellent for him. With that said he has to face Febiven who has been one of the strongest players in North America this split. My gut tells me CLG are up for this game which makes me want to keep this at 2 units but I do think Clutch have the edge. CLG simply can't close when they have a lead most of the time and Clutch are a plus macro team so I actually think even with the meta trending toward faster games Clutch can win without a lead while CLG won't always win with a lead.
Result: WIN (+3.24 units)
Result: WIN (+9 units)
To be honest Febiven was both the reason they won this game, were winning this game, and were losing at one point. He was stepping up greedily and CLG found the ONE place that wasn't warded on a flank that allowed CLG a chance back into the game. That's one of the only mistakes I've seen him make all season and he still carried the end of this game.
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Moneyline: Team Solo Mid +149 (2 units)
I'm putting some faith in TSM to learn that you simply can't just wait for teams to make mistakes anymore and they stop just rolling over and dying in games. They were aggresive and proactive against Cloud 9 and if a couple plays went one auto attack differently they would have likely taken that game down. It was the reason I followed up on them against Clutch. Echo Fox look dominant right now but I think this line is slightly off and TSM need this win WAY more than Echo Fox do. I could imagine a scenario where Echo Fox try something different because they have a bit of a cushion now. With that said, Echo Fox could potentially win this even doing that.
This is definitely more of a gut feeling bet. Great players clutch it out when games matter and TSM can't afford to lose many more matches if they want a good playoff seeding. Echo Fox sit atop the LCS and are only a couple wins from clinching playoffs. I could definitely see a lackluster or sloppy performance from them and TSM showing up with a must win attitude. I just hope they don't play passive.
Result:
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Moneyline: OpTic Gaming -167 (2 units)
(UPDATE: DHOKLA I STARTING TOP FOR OPTIC. I don't know too much because I haven't watched every academy game but he's pretty clearly the best top laner in the challenger scene and he's been on a losing team which is impressive.)
(UPDATE 2: Really like the draft from OpTic. Getting Dhokla his best champion and the Orianna soft counter to Ryze. They gave up the Skarner but I'm going to put another 2 units at -167 on OpTic)
OpTic decisively dispatched of GG in their first meeting from blue side and with side selection and a more favorable patch for superior mid laner PowerofEvil with Viktor being quite good I feel pretty confident giving the edge to OpTic here. I also think even a pseudo-washed up Ssumday should trounce Lourlo and Arrow to put rookie Deftly in his place especially if we see the Draven pick again. I'm going to limit this to 2 units because ultimately this is the two bottom teams in the LCS but if OpTic have visions of a playoff run they absolutely need to win this game.
Result: WIN
Result: WIN (TOTAL of
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Moneyline: Team Liquid -286 (3 units)
Moneyline: UNDER 35:00 @-116 (1 unit)
I like the way the new FlyQuest looks but they're still not a particularly great team. Liquid are coming off a disappointing loss to Golden Guardians and barely beat CLG. I expect this to be a wake up call for them and for TL to show up guns blazing this week. A lot of the mistakes they made were draft errors and are relatively simple fixes so I trust they'll return to form for a playoff push. I also think Liquid have the edge in every role except for top which feels like a push. With the pace at which both of these teams play I'd imagine it's a fast game regardless of the winner.
Result: WIN
Result: WIN
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EU LCS February 24th Schedule:
Giants Gaming -143 @ H2k +105
Team ROCCAT -152 @ Unicorns of Love +120
Team Vitality +106 @ Misfits Gaming -135
Splyce -104 @ FC Schalke 04 -130
Fnatic -114 @ G2 eSports -111
Moneyline: Giants Gaming -143 (3 units)
Moneyline: UNDER 36:00 @ -116 (1 unit)
(UPDATE: Added 0.25 units H2k @ +785 in game at 12 minutes. Camille is way way ahead of Gangplank and after a rough start H2k have stabalized. I'm just going to hedge a bit and saw this line jump to 785 because Giants don't have this in the bag just yet although they are up with Azir + Gangplank.)
People love an underdog comeback story. They absolutely love when the last place team starts winning so it's been a feel good week for fans of H2K and UOL but as Eminem once said "snap back to reality." I have no idea how SmittyJ is going to deal with Ruin who continues to perform at a high level. Only Wunder, the best top in Europe, has outperformed him in the role but I think Giants have stronger players top to bottom and unlike the similarly rated ROCCAT don't just roll over and die in the early game despite being a late game prefering team.
- H2K are dealing 1578 damage per minute with 1690 gold per minute, differential per minute -232
- Giants are dealing 1763 damage per minute with 1801 gold per minute, differential per minute -33
- Giants have an impressive first tower differential at +0.18 which is surprising given their 6-5 record.
This line is cooking in the recent poor performance of Giants and the recent great performance of H2K since Shook and Selfie joined and while I do think they're an improved team this line shouldn't be this close. I had it as -233. I'll drop 3 units here for good value on the stronger team. It'd be more if Giants were an S tier level roster but since it's a best of one I'll keep this one tame at 3.
Result: LOSS
Result: LOSS
Result: WIN (on hedge to minimize losses). All told this was roughly a 2 unit loss since the hedge made half our wager back.
Wow... Giants you have to close this game. You dicked around two different times when you had the game iced. First overstaying after taking a nexus tower on the first nexus siege then again 50 minutes later. This was that game that you don't auto attack the nexus and lose, at least it feels that way. Giants didn't close this. They played as if it was over. That being said if Giants didn't get a baron stolen from them (with a Kalista on their team...) this game would have been over at 32 minutes. Hopefully this now means Giants won't do this ever again.
Result: WIN (on hedge to minimize losses). All told this was roughly a 2 unit loss since the hedge made half our wager back.
Wow... Giants you have to close this game. You dicked around two different times when you had the game iced. First overstaying after taking a nexus tower on the first nexus siege then again 50 minutes later. This was that game that you don't auto attack the nexus and lose, at least it feels that way. Giants didn't close this. They played as if it was over. That being said if Giants didn't get a baron stolen from them (with a Kalista on their team...) this game would have been over at 32 minutes. Hopefully this now means Giants won't do this ever again.
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Moneyline: Team ROCCAT -152 (2 units)
Moneyline: UNDER 36:00 @ -116 (1 unit)
Team ROCCAT looked absolutely abysmal yesterday but it was against G2. They also looked terrible against H2K last week but that was also on short notice of their new roster.
- Stronger in all 3 lanes and even in jungle.
- Need the wins in a close middle of the table in Europe.
- Line way off
While I've been disappointed with this ROCCAT team and UOL seem to have found a bit of a stride I think both teams are due to return to form a little bit. ROCCAT got embarassed yesterday and UOL would have lost that game had Splyce shown any fight whatsoever. Unlike Splyce yesterday, ROCCAT will take early fights and run you around the map instead of just trying to always play defensively. I like the favorites because I think this line is way off but ultimately this is two teams towards the bottom of the table so I'm limiting it to 2 units.
Result: LOSS
Result: LOSS
Exileh keeps proving me wrong. He hard carried this game on Azir. This wasn't a tempo issue or anything like that. He got to full build on his own merit with great team fighting and ROCCAT couldn't stop them from scaling.
Exileh keeps proving me wrong. He hard carried this game on Azir. This wasn't a tempo issue or anything like that. He got to full build on his own merit with great team fighting and ROCCAT couldn't stop them from scaling.
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Moneyline: Misfits -135 (3 units)
Moneyline: UNDER 37:00 @ -116 (1 unit)
(UPDATE: Added 5 units in game at -476 at around 29:50. Just barely missed getting in at -200 heading into that fight near mid. Baron buff against a team with almost zero wave clear should be game.)
Team Vitality continue to crash, as predicted and unfortunately Misfits are hungry for wins and good playoff seeding to avoid G2 and Fnatic who appear to be a cut above the rest of Europe.
- Misfits side selection for potential counterpicks
- Misfits stronger on the top side of the map
- Misfits stronger in the mid + jungle duel
- Misfits stronger in the bottom lane
- Minitroupax was unable to carry even when given resources yesterday against Giants when Jiizuke was taken out of the game by jungle pressure.
I think Misfits are going to approach this game the same way Giants did yesterday and try to take out Jiizuke and make Minitroupax carry which he was unable to do on a 3-0 Tristana. I'm sure Vitality will start winning some games again but not this one.
Result: WIN (+5.22 units)
Result: WIN
Result: Added a unit with my IG bet.
Result: Added a unit with my IG bet.
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Moneyline: Schalke 04 -130 (3 units)
Moneyline: UNDER 37:00 @ -116 (1 unit)
Both have these teams have been disappointing but Schalke have at least showed some fight in recent weeks while Splyce continue to play their attempt at Season 7 SKT style which, unfortunately, they can't do because they aren't remotely close to as good as that team was.
Moneyline: Schalke 04 -130 (3 units)
Moneyline: UNDER 37:00 @ -116 (1 unit)
Both have these teams have been disappointing but Schalke have at least showed some fight in recent weeks while Splyce continue to play their attempt at Season 7 SKT style which, unfortunately, they can't do because they aren't remotely close to as good as that team was.
- Splyce refuse to make proactive plays and only react
- Reactive, defensive play has been weakened by recent patches
- Game time substantially lowered
- Splyce lose most games that don't go long
- Splyce outclassed in every position.
As disappointing as Schalke have been I'm not giving up hope. They're a strong team that has had a rough go of it with sickness and lineup issues and have at least looked good in their losses. Splyce just rolled over and died in their last two matches.
Result: LOSS
Result: WIN
These baron throws man... back to back daggers.
These baron throws man... back to back daggers.
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Moneyline: G2 eSports -111 (2 units)
This is the match of the week. The two top teams in Europe get to duke it out for first place. Both teams are coming off of 7-0 and 6-0 runs and have been absolutely crushing the table. I'm selecting G2 here but this could go either way.
Result: LOSS
This was a good, competitive game but Fnatic just had the Viktor + Sivir stall machine. G2 just didn't have quite a big enough lead to close this one out against that wave clear.
Moneyline: G2 eSports -111 (2 units)
This is the match of the week. The two top teams in Europe get to duke it out for first place. Both teams are coming off of 7-0 and 6-0 runs and have been absolutely crushing the table. I'm selecting G2 here but this could go either way.
- Wunder is the best top lane in Europe and while SoaZ has been good, he's made a lot of weird mistakes while Wunder has been the strongest laner WITH THE LEAST JUNGLE HELP.
- Perkz is the best mid laner in Europe and while Caps has been impressive as well it's not quite to the same level as Perkz.
- Bot lane is slight advantage to Fnatic with Rekkles playing out of his mind right now it's tough to argue this one.
- Jungle goes to Jankos as does the mid + jungle and top + jungle matchups.
- G2 have been the better early game team on an early game patch.
I wouldn't blame you for taking the otherside on this one but I'm going with G2 for 2 units. They're the better early game team, albeit not by much, and I think their wins have been a lot more decisive.
Result: LOSS
This was a good, competitive game but Fnatic just had the Viktor + Sivir stall machine. G2 just didn't have quite a big enough lead to close this one out against that wave clear.
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LCK February 24th Schedule:
ROX Tigers (+160, +1.5 @ -200, M1 +117, M2 +117, M3 +118)
@ (Over/Under 37:00, Total Kills 18.5)
SK Telecom (-208, -1.5 @ +151, M1 -154, M2 -154, M3 -154)
Kingzone DragonX (-323, -1.5 @ -103, M1 -244, M2 -250, M3 -227)
@ (Over/Under 37:00, Total Kills 18.5)
Afreeca Freecs (+238, +1.5 @ -125, M1 +180, M2 +177, M3 +163)
Moneyline: SK Telecom -208 (4 units)
Moneyline: Maps 1 and 2 UNDER 37:00 (1 unit each)
Moneyline: Map 1 SKT FIRST BLOOD @ -130 (0.5 units)
I might just be a sucker for this one so tail at your own caution because I was likely going to slam this one if the line was even remotely close to my anticipation.
As good as ROX Tigers have been I think it's safe to say they've been overperforming expectations a bit. SKT won the first series of the season 2-1 against ROX and while both teams seem to be improved I think this metagame favors SKT's new found aggression a bit more. Neither of these teams have a particularly great EGR (early game rating) over the course of the season and both have similar gold per minute ratings as 1850 for ROX and 1901 for SK Telecom. The difference is that SKT is doing almost 200 damage per minute more with only a little bit more gold. ROX are a solid, scrappy team that fights a lot even though they aren't usually effective in doing so early in the game. With SKT's new found willingness to actually take fights and skirmishes for a change, I think they'll be able to match ROX and avoid getting too far behind early in the game. ROX rely heavily on SeongHwan and Lava snowballing games to win and I just think Faker and Blossom can outperform them in that aspect, especially with side selection for a potential Faker counterpick.
This is 1 unit metrics, 2 units strategy/matchups, and 1 unit gut feeling. I just think Faker, Wolf, and Bang have been so clutch in the past and I'm willing to ride and die if it comes to it.
Result: WIN (+5.92 units)
Result: WIN WIN
Result: WIN
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Moneyline: Kingzone DragonX -323 (4 units)
Moneyline: Kingzone DragonX -1.5 maps@ -103 (0.5 unit)
Moneyline: Maps 1 and 2 UNDER 37:00 @-109/110 (1 unit each)
This is not an overreaction bet to Afreeca losing to Jin Air nor is it an overcorrection bet for Kingzone losing to BBQ Olivers.
- I'm placing this wager under the assumption that Khan gets the start in top lane and Peanut in the jungle
- Kiin vs Khan is an absolutely insane mismatch even with counterpick and Kiin performing well this season. He's just not on the same level. Khan is likely the best player in the world right now.
- Both the Top + Jungle and Mid + Jungle matchups are advantage Kingzone
- Bot Lane is even to me in current form
- Kingzone absolutely smashed the first matchup 2-0 and that included a swap to Cuzz in game 2
- Kingzone is doing 1958 damage per minute and 2053 gold per minute
- Afreeca is doing 1770 damage per minute and 1963 gold per minute.
- Kingzone has a gold differential per minute of +339 (this is absolutely insane)
- Afreeca has a gold differential per minute of +129
To me this has less to do with the metrics, although they do play a factor, and more to do with this being a strategic mismatch on an individual and partial squadron level. If you control the top side of the map in League's current form you can select a neutral or shoving bot lane. It's how both of these teams have been playing all season with a couple exceptions. It has nothing to do with Jin Air or BBQ "revealing" anything about these teams. As exciting as I want this match to be with the previous #1 and #2 and both losing in upset fashion coming off the bye week it just feels like the Kingzone boogeyman are going to smash this series. They're the better early game team and that's not to say Afreeca are bad at it but Kingzone are just on another level and I expect Khan to remind everybody why he's the world's best at the moment.
Result: WIN (+5.24 units)
Result: LOSS
Result: LOSS LOSS
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LMS February 24th Schedule:
Mad Team (+314, +1.5 @ +100, M1 +215, M2 +214, M3 +189)
@ (Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 22.5)
Flash Wolves (-500, -1.5 @ -135, M1 -313, M2 -323, M3 -278)
Team Afro (-156, -1.5 @ +195, M1 -139, M2 -139, M3 -139)
@ (Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 24.5)
HK Attitude (+107, +1.5 @ -303, M1 +100, M2 +100, M3 +100)
Moneyline: Flash Wolves -1.5 maps @ -135 (2 units)
Moneyline: Maps 1 and 2 UNDER:34 @ -135 (0.5 units each)
Flash Wolves sit atop the LMS once again with 4th place Mad Team next up on the chopping block. Tale of the tape?
- Flash Wolves: 1951 gold per min, 2010 damage per min, +273 gold differential per min
- Mad Team: 1796 gold per min, 1934 damage per min, -37 gold differential per min
- LMS Region Avg Game Time (besides Flash Wolves): 38:06
- Flash Wolves Avg Game Time: 34:34 (including a 24:41)
Mad Team, like many of the middle tier teams in the LMS get behind early and play a disciplined scaling game. With a slightly faster patch and game times and a Flash Wolves team that was already taking advantage of up tempo play this just appears to be a stylistic mismatch. They're -500 favorites and that's probably close to accurate if not too forgiving. I like the handicap for 2 units but not the moneyline at that price in a region I'm less well-versed in.
Result: WIN (+3.475 units)
Result: WIN LOSS
LPL February 24th Schedule:
JD Gaming (-286, -1.5 @ -116, M1 -217, M2 -222, M3 -222)
@ (Over/Under 35:00, Total Kills 20.5)
FunPlus Phoenix (+199, +1.5 @ -116, M1 +161, M2 +159, M3 +159)
LGD Gaming (+117, +1.5 @ -278, M1 +107, M2 +106, M3 +106)
@ (Over/Under 35:00, Total Kills 20.5)
BiliBili Gaming (-159, -1.5 @ +197, M1 -141, M2 -143, M3 -143)
Moneyline: FunPlus Phoenix +1.5 maps @ -116 (1 unit)
Moneyline: Maps 1 and 2 UNDER 35:00 @ -116 (1 unit each)
Moneyline: Map 1 JD Gaming FIRST BLOOD @ -133 (0.5 unit)
This, admittedly, is a hunch upset bet. JD and FPP are in different conferences so much like the MLB's interleague play there are a lot of upsets because the teams are only playing to match in conference wins instead of adding a win and adding a loss to an in conference opponent. Combine that with the 2 week Chinese New Year holiday and this has all the makings of FPP stealing one of these games. I'm not saying JD Gaming are going to come out flat. They're one of the best first blood teams in the world (hence the wager) but I do think that underdogs coming off a 2 week break like this are often good values. We've seen it in the LCK with BBQ and Jin Air. Now maybe I'm nuts because FPP is a bottom 3 team in the LPL but they took a game off out of conference Invictus Gaming, the hands down #1 in China right now, before the break and have a match victory against #2 Snake as well. They're capable of stealing games against the best teams.
Result: WIN (+1.86 units)
Result: WIN WIN
Result: WIN
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Moneyline: BiliBili Gaming -159 (3 units)
Moneyline: BiliBili Gaming -1.5 maps @ +197 (1 unit)
Moneyline: Maps 1 and 2 UNDER 35:00 @ -116 (1 unit each)
I'm dipping into the LPL a bit more on their first week back. Both of these teams are competitive middle of the table teams that have taken games here and there off of top level squads but I like BiliBili for a couple reasons.
- They perhaps have more impressive wins taking more games off of better teams but LGD seem to struggle against teams that have strong mid + jungle duos and Athena and SKS have been one of the best combinations in China.
- BiliBili are great at closing games out and finding resources without kills, LGD are significantly more reliant on kills. In other words, BBG are more surgical while LGD just try to brute force.
- BBG's bot lane of Jinjiao and Road have quietly been having one of the best duo performances in the LPL this split with a 4.8/4.3 KDA and 76.2/81.8 kill participation rate
This is a case of the expert vs the athelete. Historically in Chinese League of Legends the experts win out and they are few and far between. BBG play a very Korean style game (likely impacted by their Korean mid and support players). They don't play slow but they play calculated and close with blazing speed and consistency. LGD are more mistake prone. I like the favorites a good bit in this brains vs braum matchup especially because BBG's bottom lane should be able to match LGD's strength which is their bot lane and the center of the map is all BBGs.
Result: WIN (+4.89 units)
Result: WIN (+2.97 units)
Result: WIN WIN
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Overrated / Underrated Teams Page Updated Weekly (Updated 2/14)!!
LCK 2018 Mid-Season "Rest of the Way" Tier List
LCK 2018 Mid-Season "Rest of the Way" Tier List
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