Yesterday's Net: +1.4495 units (includes Live bets)
66% win rate but we lost on a couple of our big hitters yesterday. We're still up on the day even through all that. This slate has a few highlight games that should reveal a lot but I don't really have too strong a feeling on at the moment. If I come up with more tomorrow morning I'll update so check back tomorrow. For the time being here's Sunday's picks.
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Turkish Champions League
Dark Passage -238 @ Team AURORA +165
YouthCrew -385 @ Galakticos +252
1907 Fenerbahce +201 @ SuperMassive TNG -294
HWA Gaming +332 @ Royal Bandits -556
(Cancelled, no interest)
North American LCS February 18th Schedule (Week 5 Day 2)
Clutch Gaming +182 @ Team Solo Mid -250
100 Thieves -103 @ Counter Logic Gaming -128
FlyQuest -149 @ OpTic Gaming +112
Echo Fox -102 @ Cloud 9 -133
Team Liquid -417 @ Golden Guardians +272
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Moneyline: Team Solo Mid -250 (3 units)
(UPDATE: Added a unit to TSM around 26:30 @ +139. I think TSM have a stronger scaling team with Gnar Sej Azir Tristana and Taric and Clutch more or less only have 3 dragons to show for it)
As I stated in the results for my wager for TSM against C9 yesterday I think that game hinged on two really close plays that could have easily gone TSM's way and it just looked a lot worse than it actually was because great teams like C9 will end a game on one unlucky play or mistake like that. Yea I know. "Well if they were really good they would've pulled those off!" Maybe you're right but I've seen better teams than these two botch plays like those dives and they're still good. TL:DR - TSM would have won that game yesterday had those two plays happened in their favor and we wouldn't be talking about "Oh man TSM got stomped!" Clutch looked solid in their win against FlyQuest but I just think TSM are the better team even though they're 4-5. I like Clutch to make playoffs but this feels like one of those TSM statement stompings. They still have excellent metrics across the board and are stronger or even in every position.TSM also get side selection.
Result: LOSS
Result: LOSS
TSM are falling into that 100 Thieves mold of just rolling over and dying anytime Galio is banned. You aren't Samsung or old SKT. You can't sit there and just play defense the entire game because you're not good enough to do that. Somebody do anything proactive EVER please... Fix your damn problems.
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Moneyline: Counter Logic Gaming -128 (1 unit)
This is strictly a metrics bet. CLG have significantly more damage per minute as a team and the same gold per minute meaning they're doing more damage with less resources. I also think they have the advantage in draft because of Huhi's Aurelion Sol permaban as well as red side. Here's the deal with these two teams. OpTic sit back and wait for the other team to make mistakes and sometimes they are good enough to punish and other times they aren't. CLG try to make plays happen and about half the time bungle it and make mistakes and half the time it works and they look pretty good. CLG also can play teamfight or 1-3-1 which OpTic haven't shown a willingness to do. If you assume CLG can't possibly play much worse than they have in recent weeks and improve on their execution a little bit then I side with them. I almost always prefer the teams that try to play uptempo and try to make plays in close or tiebreak type of situations because they will find themselves in early wins more often than a team that just plays safe and scales which means they don't give the other team a chance to get to late game and closer to 50/50. I know I put 100 Thieves in front of CLG by a place in my "Rest of the Way" tier list but these teams are basically both the same. Unexciting, predictable, and overrated going into the year. I think side choice, draft advantage, better metrics, and CLG's willingness to actually fight instead of roll over and die makes me think they'll be hungrier for this game.
Result: LOSS
This team... I gotta rewatch these vods.
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Moneyline: FlyQuest -149 (2 units)
I think this is another case of a stylistic mismatch. FlyQuest want to play uptempo roaming style and if they lose then they lose. Assuming Stunt and AnDA play tomorrow I think this is a slight a advantage to FlyQuest because they should be able to do get far enough ahead of a lethargic OpTic squad to get the win. PowerofEvil's main strength is actually laning and I think Fly will just shove and roam so he doesn't need to interact with him so that advantage will be at least slightly nullified. The other tiebreaking factor for me is just how horrific Zig has been this season. He's dead last in almost every metric even below Lourlo and I think if there's any chance for Lord Flame himself to recapture some of his youthful dominance this will be it. I might end up hedging this after more thought but I feel reasonably confident in FlyQuest if they start their full roster.
Result: WIN (+3.34 units)
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Moneyline: Echo Fox -102 (1 unit)
(UPDATE: Added a unit for Echo Fox @ +120, Huni actually had first blood on the "counter" pick. Game is under control with bottom rolling too.)
I'm going to keep this to one unit unless I come up with a reason to feel more strongly about it but this is mostly a gut feeling that Huni is going to absolutely destroy Licorice who has been way better than almost every rookie top laner since Hauntzer's rookie season. I'll reiterate what I mentioned earlier in this post and say that yesterdays Cloud 9 vs TSM tilt easily could have ended up in that top lane dive succeeding and turning into a turret but Svenskeren bailed him out. This is going to be a close game and at this current moment I think this is probably the two best teams in NA LCS. I just break ties in favor of Dardoch who has been significantly better than almost every other jungler in terms of efficiency metrics, production, and strategic pathing, as well as Huni who is just miles ahead of every other top laner in most metrics. Back in week 2 Echo Fox won this matchup but not through their top lane like I'd expected. This time around I expect them to do just that. Cloud 9 might be the best team in NA right now but I think Echo Fox might just be their kryptonite. Huni/Dardoch is just a game changing matchup nightmare. I don't feel strongly enough to bet heavily against Cloud 9 at this moment but I do think Echo Fox win this game so we'll limit this to one unit for the time being.
Result: WIN (+1.98 units)
Result: WIN (+2.2 units)
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Moneyline: Team Liquid -417 (4 units)
Moneyline: UNDER 35:00 @ -116 (1 unit)
(UPDATE: This Under line already moved from -116 to -167)
(UPDATE 2: Added 4 units once TL turned that fight defending their bot inhib to even the gold and they have superior scaling.)
This is a big spread but I think Liquid will look more like they did earlier in the season when they were obliterating teams in 30 minutes. They're not going to give Golden Guardians any room to breath. They have stronger players by large margains in every position and they know how to close better than just about anybody. I'm also going to take the under for a unit.
Result: LOSS
Result: LOSS
One of my biggest losses of the season. No words for this one Team Liquid got embarassed.
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