Sunday, May 24, 2020

The Next Step

Back on Tuesday January 16th, 2018 I released my first betting related post. It was a pre-season power rankings list for the LEC (at the time EU LCS). I had already dabbled a little here and there and played a fair amount of DFS at that point but that was the starting point for what would eventually become a public journal of my foray into handicapping. It started as a way to hold myself accountable similar to what I was doing with this blog beforehand with my advanced solo queue statistics and professional scene predictions posts (some of those old posts are a hoot, feel free to check them out).

In many ways that hasn't changed. As strange as it sounds, there was a certain therapeutic aspect of having the routine of the grind on an almost daily basis and this was my public outlet for that. It's why I never "sold" the blog or anything like that.  I never intended to build a following or get famous, I was just a guy trying to log his journey to getting better at something. Never in a million years did I think I'd ever be writing for websites or other publications. It was just a place for me to put my thoughts so I wouldn't have to type them out a million times when people asked me for opinions as well as a way to track my own progress. 


Eventually, as all obsessive or manic-minded people will understand, it turned into a bonafied project absorbing many more hours of my life than I'd ever intended it to but it was a true labor of love. I absolutely love this game and handicapping it and that hasn't changed. Over 400 blog posts I steadily honed my craft and started picking up a lot of like-minded readers, followers on social media, and most importantly friends that eventually led to a handful of outside writing opportunities at places (thanks to The Action Network, Safestbettingsites.com, Sports Gambling Podcast Network, and more). When the esports boom hit a few months ago I had the honor of joining a few podcast to spread the gospel of League of Legends to the masses. Things got big very fast as dozens turned to hundreds turned to thousands of readers.


At the end of the day, "The Blog" was still my thing. It was more for myself than my readers which is why it's always been free and open to the public. It's truly humbling when people respect your opinion as much as many of you have and for that I thank you all. Even the debates when we disagree have been tremendously fun and engaging! 


In case it wasn't obvious, I'll be moving to a new location for a new adventure, the next step in this journey if you will. It won't be free. I did not take this decision lightly. I have stood firmly against paid picks or touting services for a number of years in favor or full transparancy with the belief that for someone like me, being genuine and having my own voice as I learn this craft earns more respect than dollar signs and that has largely been true in my time doing this. For years and years I've released free (or close to it) content and I'd do it again in a second but I want to talk a bit about what's next and why I'm extremely excited to be a part of something at its foundation: The Esports Department.


A few of my closest colleagues in the space and I wanted to build something on our own instead of trying to convince others to dive in and commit to esports. We've been here, doing this for years and we're damn good at it! It's an opportunity to be a part of a business of our own creation and bring a product that we feel will be better than anything else you can get in this space. Unfortunately that comes at a cost. In order to bring that great product it requires a sacrifice of our resources and most importantly our time.


I'll be pouring all of my energy into this project to make it the best it possibly can be and to do that means I have to drop a lot of my other projects including a number of them that are paid. With the ability to focus more time on my craft along with significantly improved data and resources we've developed, I'm confident I'll be bringing you a product that will be worth every single penny. If I did not think that was the case I absolutely would not be making this transition. 


Don't worry, I'm not going to become some stuffy, professional writer type.  Having my own voice is what got me here and it's still very important to me. You'll still be getting that along with a similar format but I'll be able to do a significantly better job for all of my readers than I am currently able to do. 


I really didn't want this to sound like a goodbye post because I think it's just the beginning of something great but this blog has, strangely enough, turned into a really important part of my life over the past few years and it's been an absolute joy and honor to share in that journey and meet so many of you along the way. That said, it's time to take this to the next level. I hope you'll join me as we climb that next mountain together. 


Starting this coming week with the Mid Season Cup between the LPL and LCK you'll be able to get a taste of what we can deliver to you over at The Esports Department FREE of charge so you can see for yourself. We're also providing top notch CounterStrike: Global Offensive analysis with some of the most accurate projections out there!. I hope to see you all there!


-Vince


---------------------------


A few other things just because I know people will ask. 


I'll still be posting here from time to time, patch musings, random thoughts, observations, etc. 


I'll still be as active as ever on Twitter and Twitch so don't hesitate to hit my up there!


I'll still be posting my selections to the spreadsheet but it will be after the games take place for record keeping.


The Gold Card Podcast, it will still remain free of charge and available on all platforms every week. We will continue being as goofy and nerdy as we want over there and hope you'll continue to join us! With some backing we'll likely be upping our game in terms of quality (recording equipment, editing, etc), hosting events and contests, and doing prizes/giveaways. Another reason to join us over at The Esports Department! 







Friday, May 1, 2020

May 2nd: LPL Finals




April 26th Recap:


LPL: 6 - 4 (-5.8775 units)

Live: 1 - 0 (+5.55 units)



Total: -0.3275 units



It's been a quiet week since there haven't been any games in the four major regions to write about. It's been a much needed break for me after the insane six week stretch we just went through with the condensed schedule, writing for multiple sites, and still working my full-time gig. What you can expect moving forward in the next couple of weeks:

1) Summer Futures positions 
2) Summer Tier lists for each region
3) Recap of my Spring split in more detail
4) More streaming opportunities for me over at www.twitch.tv/GelatiLOL
5) The Gold Card Podcast every week still!
6) Some big things prepared for next season that I'm really excited for

You probably won't hear too much from me other than that in the coming weeks as this is the only real downtime I'll get to unwind until November with the Summer season and then worlds shortly after that. I'll still be active on Twitter in this time with any questions though!

Let's recap the other semi-final from earlier this week.


FPX / JDG

That's two playoff series where I've been absolutely gutted by laying heavy juice on map totals like an absolute moron. It's why I tend to avoid that bet. It's not indicative of a lot of except in situations where you have a team that you think is superior but very inconsistent and even then you want good odds on it. I laid -400 and an idiotic 8 units with the idea in my head of taking the W there for 2 and getting a 3-1 on either side for a quarter and the rest covering for itself but in reality just looking at my staking for this series there's just all sorts of logical problems. (shoutout to @JP_IronWolf for calling my out on this)


On bets of 3.4u or higher this season I went 2-7. Three of those were -400 plays on the OVER 3.5 maps in the past week that went 1-2 for a net of -11u. Unacceptable not because of the side or idea being unjustified but because of staking.

Just don't do it... it's not that complicated. I constantly preach that the map total is one of the most deceptive bets in the LOL market and then I do this? Play it small in the spots where it actually makes some sense or don't play it at all.



Staking problems/inconsistency is not an unfamiliar thing for me. I used to be absolutely unintelligable (just read some of my posts from past years). I've improved my staking plan overall significantly this season but I've still had a few lapses in judgement. It still needs improvement and it's been the biggest reason why I'm going to finish the spring slightly in the red on straight wagers. This is something I'll be planning to re-evaluate heading into summer. 

I'll be doing my normal mid-season evaluation post sometime this week or next week but this was not a great spring for me and it's normally when I do quite well. Considering that my overall read on the eastern leagues was much more accurate than last year and I just blew it away on stupid shit is a bit frustrating but hey, you live, you learn. I'm just a guy that's trying to get better at this and there's still clearly a lot of work to be done.



Moving on to the actual series... 


It was significantly closer than the 3-0 final result indicates. These were close, high level games from both sides. I thought FPX did a lot of things well but JDG seemed to come out on top in almost every situation similar to how FPX beat EDG. Yagao picking Leblanc INTO Doinb's Ryze in game three was just the biggest display of confidence I've seen in awhile. That took balls and you know what? He made it work even though it wasn't looking good for awhile. 


By no means was this perfect from either side but it sure as hell was a fun series to watch. We even got to see an LCK impression in the first game. To me, this was the real final. I had these two teams #1 and #2 before the season started but with how good TOP have looked who knows, perhaps we have a barn burner on our hands.  




--------------------------

The content I provide here is always and will always be free but if you ever want to chip in and buy me a beer or pitch in to keep the lights on for the podcast there's a donation tab up top or you can DM me on Twitter if you prefer crypto or other means.

--------------------------

CHECK OUT THE GOLD CARD PODCAST!

Available on Spotify, iTunes, Podbean, Stitcher, and wherever you get your podcast fix!

-------------------------

(all lines are from Nitrogen unless stated otherwise)



------------------------



LPL (China)


Futures Positions (post in link and on sidebar):


JDG to win Spring: 1.375 units to win 20.875 units

FunPlus to win Spring: 2.125 units to win 5.3125 units
eStar to win Spring: 0.1 units to win 25.0 units




Playoffs - Finals

TOP eSports +113 (+1.5 @ +1.5 @ -222, +2.5 @ -588)
vs
JD Gaming -150 (-1.5 @ +144, -2.5 @ +307)


Lineups:

TOP: 369, Karsa, Knight, JackeyLove, QiuQiu
JDG: Zoom, Kanavi, Yagao, Loken, LvMao


Trends:
JDG are 10-3 as favorites, 8-5 ATS
JDG are 5-0, 4-1 ATS in their past five appearances as underdogs (including playoffs)
Zoom has not lost a game since returning. JDG are a perfect 15-0 in games with him in the lineup.

TOP are 4-1 as underdogs, 4-1 ATS
TOP have won 2-0 in three of their past four appearances as underdogs 
(vs FPX, eStar, JDG)

TOP won the first meeting between these teams back on March 25th 2-0.


I did a roundtable discussion style post on this final with Josh Roberts and John George over at The Action Network that I'd encourage you to check out.

It's really strange to me that QiuQiu is getting the start. He's been a better player than Yuyanjia overall but to potentially disrupt the chemistry that JackeyLove has built with him during this streak is risky. I don't necessarily think this is automatically a bad thing it's just odd. My guess is that it has something to do with champion pool going up against Loken/LvMao.

So obviously I have futures on JDG for this matchup. I stand to make a whopping 20.875 units on a JDG victory in this spot. I hedge my T1 positions last week and punted it all away on props for the series. I do think that was a bit unlucky but I'll be staying away from the sides in this match but what I'm going to do is take the under kill totals in the first three maps because I think regardless of the winner that we'll get under 26.5. The numbers project this total higher than that (27-28 range) but it's pretty skewed by recent series, particularly the final few weeks of the regular season. I'm also going to be on the JDG first blood props because they've been one of the better first blood squads in the league and we're getting an advantagous number relative to the implied odds+low correlation.

I'm doing a partial hedge that leans heavily toward JDG basically to cover my prop wagers + 1.375 unit futures investment. 

Hedge vs JDG futures + props for this match

MONEYLINE HEDGE: TOP +133 (5.4 units)

Since I feel rather strongly that JDG win this I'm doing a partial hedge that leans heavily toward JDG basically to cover my prop wagers + 1.375 unit futures investment. It's a better alternative to a complete blowout. While it's possible we hit these unders and JDG first blood even in a TOP win, the likelihood is that if TOP win this series these probably wont. With this position we'll end up with the following:
Worst Case scenario: IF TOP win and we miss every single wager we NET: 0
Medium Worst Case scenario: IF TOP win and we hit some of these wagers NET: whatever we win on wagers
Medium Case Scenario: IF JDG win and we miss all of these wagers NET: +15.09 units
Best Case Scenario: If JDG win and we hit all of these wagers NET: +19.975 units


Map 1:
Prop: JDG first blood @ -127 (0.635  units)
Kill Total: UNDER 26.5 @ -130 (1.3 units)

Map 2:
Prop: JDG first blood @ -127 (0.635  units)
Kill Total: UNDER 26.5 @ -130 (1.3 units)

Map 3:
Prop: JDG first blood @ -127 (0.635 units)
Kill Total: UNDER 26.5 @ -128 (1.28 units)

------------------------



Other Leagues

I have some Isurus +200 to win the LLA this season that I'm going to just let ride for this series since they managed to 3-1 decisively even after punting a lead in game one in their last match. They're running hot and they should be the best team in LLA even if their regular season record didn't show it.


--------------------


Parlays: