SK Telecom T1 (-385, -1.5 @ -115, M1 -263, M2 -263, M3 -263)
@ (Over/Under 36:00, Total Kills 17.5)
Kongdoo Monster (+262, +1.5 @ -118, M1 +184, M2 +184, M3 +184)
KSV eSports (+107, +1.5 @ -250, M1 -105, M2 -108, M3 -105)
@ (Over/Under 37:00, Total Kills 18.5)
KT Rolster (-143, -1.5 @ +178, M1 -128, M2 -125, M3 -128)
Personal Line Projections:
These are what I believe the line should be not what I think the books will put it at. I will write this down before looking at the lines the books set for the day as a gauge of whether or not my expectations are in or out of line on the game. I typically weigh my own expectations a lot more because unlike in traditional sports I don't think the books know what they're doing or they just let an algorithm set their lines.
SKT T1 -300 (75%) @ Kongdoo Monster (25%)
KSV eSports (40%) @ KT Rolster -150 (60%)
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Moneyline: SK Telecom -385 (4 units)
Moneyline: SK Telecom -1.5 @ -115 (1 unit)
Moneyline: Map 1 and Map 2 UNDER 36:00 (0.5 units each)
People will forget about it because of the week off but SK Telecom looked like they've finally figured out a way to dig themselves out of the dumpster. A dominant performance against KSV and a 2 - 1 against BBQ looks good but with how KSV and BBQ have looked recently I'm not sure these are quite to the level of "SKT can win LCK" but it certainly cements them pretty firmly above the bottom of LCK. The reason I'm not hesitating on this wager is because SKT already made the mistake of punting a series against MVP this season and I doubt they'll underestimate Kongdoo especially with an extra week to prepare. This lineup with Thal, Blossom, and Wolf seems to be the one that works. They're aggressive, proactive, and don't let teams get to late game if they can help it which has been the main upset creator in all leagues this season.
Kongdoo don't output any damge with a dreadful 1558 damage per minute over the season which is pretty bad for any league but awful for Korea. I also think that this is a bad matchup because Kongdoo's strongest players are Edge and Ssol and they have to play against Faker and Bang so I doubt they'll be able to get a big advantage. Kongdoo are also going through some weird lineup issues as well mixing in new jungler U Jun who looks lost so far.
SKT seems to have turned the corner and while I don't think they're one of the top teams they'll certainly be gunning for playoffs. Blossom and Thal can only improve with more stage experience. I've been burned betting mediocre teams as heavy favorites in the past but I think SKT are better than a mediocre team. Mediocre teams in Korea are elite teams in other regions meaning the main reasons not to bet mediocre teams such as lack of consitency closing, weak individual players, and sloppy openings aren't as big of a factor there where every squad has good macro game. This feels like a lock. SKT need this game. They only have 2-3 match losses to give the rest of the season if they want a shot at playoffs and they can't afford to lose games against bottom of the table teams like Kongdoo.
I'm going with the under on these games as well for a few reasons. Patch 8.3 as well as more time in the meta game seems to have allowed teams some time to figure out how to close games before teams can stall them out. Teams seem to be tired of losing to weaker teams just stalling to coin flip situations so they're getting more aggressive and not giving teams the chance. This match should be a stomping. Especially with an extra week to prepare I think the superior team will win decisively.
Result: WIN (+5.04 units)
Result: LOSS
Result: WIN LOSS (net: slight loss)
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Moneyline: KT Rolster -143 (2 units)
Moneyline: KT Rolster Map 1 First Blood (0.5 units)
KSV got stomped by SK Telecom and lost 2-1 to ROX Tigers earlier in the week. Were they sleeping on those teams or are they really that bad? I think ROX and SKT needed those wins and KSV seems to be hitting a mid season lull. Maybe the week off will allow them to freshen up but I have some concerns.
- KSV have had slightly negative gold differentials @ 15 minutes
- 26% first blood rate
- 8.2 kills per game and 9.5 deaths per game
- 2.6 assists per kill.
This is a late game team fighting team. They're the "bend but don't break" defensive team and have perhaps been the best non-SK Telecom example of that style in the past few years but you can't play that way against teams that play quickly. We've seen it in almost every single region, the teams playing with this style losing games they shouldn't when another team picks scaling against them, losing games early because they are too passive. I think of TSM, Fnatic (early in the season), and even SK Telecom earlier in the season. You simply can't play that passively. Now maybe the week off gave them time to figure things out but I'm not going to bet against a trend lasting years with a few blips (world finals).
- KT Rolster have +845 gold differential @ 15 minutes
- 60% first bloo rate
- 9.9 kills per game and 8.9 deaths per game
- 2.5 assists per kill
This is a team that wants to play fast and close games quickly. They've been a tad inconsistent from time to time but we know who they want to be. I also think KT Rolster have better players overall especially with KSV experimenting with this Haru/Ambition swapping jungle.
I'm not saying KSV have an inflated record. They look like a top Korean team at times but in the past few weeks they haven't been themselves and that metagame is shifting away from the strategy that has served them so well. I'm respecting the fact that they could figure some things out in the off week as well as KT being inconsistent at times (relative to top Korean teams that is). I'll keep this wager at two units in what should be a telling match for the second half of the season for these top teams.
Result: WIN (+3.4 units)
Result: WIN (+0.93 units)
Result: WIN (+0.93 units)
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