Betting: February 11th (LCK / NA LCS)

LCK February 11th Schedule (Week 4 Day 5):

SK Telecom (+164, +1.5 @ -222, M1 +120, M2 +121, M3 +121)
@ (Over/Under 38:00 @ -116, Total Kills 17.5 @ -125)
KSV eSports (-213, -1.5 @ +159, M1 -167, M2 -164, M3 -164)

Kongdoo Monster (+285, +1.5 @ +115, M1 +221, M2 +221, M3 +221)
@ (Over/Under 36:00 @ -116/-119, Total Kills 17.5 @ -116)
KT Rolster (-435, -1.5 @ -159, M1 -323, M2 -323, M3 -323)


Moneyline: SK Telecom +164  (2 units)

Moneyline: SK Telecom +1.5 @ -222  (2 units)

If you look at metrics these two teams actually don't look that different despite vastly different records. They have similar gold generation, similar gold differentials (both relatively poor), similar kill and death totals, similar kill involvement and assists per kill, and SK actually places more wards per minute and does more damage per minute. If I erased the records and the team names you could look at these two and just guess that they're two middle of the pack type teams. Now I think KSV is the better team but they've also lost series to ROX and Kongdoo Monster who are mid and bottom tier teams.I'm going with a couple units on SK Telecom. Blossom seems to have brought some level of proactiveness to this team even if it results in errors sometimes. It takes a lot of pressure off Faker to have to force plays all the time. I also think that this is going to be the roster we see moving forward because SKT don't have anymore losses to really give. They basically in must win mode every week if they want a shot at playoffs. ROX also exposed a lot of KSV's bad habits earlier this week and I think that Wolf + Blossom SK Telecom can at least attempt to punish that. That being said I'm keeping this wager low because I'm both skeptical of SKT still and KSV could just "wake up" and start crushing people again. A lot of their metrics are middling because they're a very feast or famine team. There is also the world finals revenge factor at work here. I just think this is a really bad spot for KSV even if I think they're the stronger team.

Result: WIN (+5.28 units)

Result: WIN (+2.9 units)

I absolutely love this new look aggro SKT. You need to grab the game by the balls and take the fight to people. They're so aggressive! Almost to the point where it's reckless but I love the decisiveness to dive, to take a baron call without hesitation. If this team just destroyed KSV and can keep this up they could definitely go on a run to make playoffs however unlikely that is. 



Moneyline: KT Rolster -435 (4 units)

Moneyline: KT Rolster -1.5 @ +159  (2 units)

While I think Kongdoo have looked pretty good at times I think a lot of it has been at the hands of Edge and Ssol making some pretty unbelievable plays and getting premium picks like Zoe way more often than they should. KT Rolster not only have the individual players to outclass Edge and Ssol, but have enough of a sample size now to see that you need to take those two off of their top champions. It's also worth noting that Kongdoo Monster are doing an abysmal 1542 damage per minute as a team which is 340 worse than MVP who is the second worst. It's not because of their macro play or 1-3-1 or any type of stylistic reason, it's because they are constantly behind and struggle putting relevant damage down in most situations. KT will have a plan to shut down Kongdoo's best players and they'll let their player quality in other positions do the rest of the heavy lifting. KT also play fast enough to end games before it can get to upset territory. This should be a swift 2-0 unless the inconsistent KT Rolster shows up and I don't think that'll be the case after a tough loss the other day to Kingzone.

Result: WIN (+4.92 units)

Result: WIN (+3.18 units)

KT needed this win too badly to mess around and drop a game to Kongdoo. This was an absolute blowout. KT just outpaced them all over the map for two games.

NA LCS February 11th Schedule (Week 4 Day 2):

FlyQuest +263 @ Cloud 9 -400

Golden Guardians +355 @ 100 Thieves -556

Team Solo Mid -175 @ Counter Logic Gaming +135

Team Liquid -118 @ Echo Fox -109

OpTic Gaming +125 @ Clutch Gaming -167

Moneyline: Team Solo Mid -208 (4 units)

(UPDATE: This line moved to TSM -175 so I put another 2 units on it. I think TSM crush this game and if anything this line should be moving the other direction)

Despite the loss yesterday to Clutch, TSM have looked much more like themselves and CLG has looked absolutely terrible. I'm almost willing to commit to saying CLG will finish as a bottom 3 team this split. The only thing to be skeptical about here is the rivalry match factor. CLG vs TSM is the most storied rivalry in League of Legends and CLG often step up against TSM even when they're not good and vice versa. I'm going to bet on the emotions of the public here and say TSM absolutely stomp this game and crush any CLG playoff hopes without a miracle run.

Result: WIN (+9.06 units total)

CLG had the mid lane Fiora counter to Galio and a Vlad counter to Gangplank. They were ahead, had killed Hauntzer a few times and looked well on their way to a 1-3-1 annoying split. They made one mistake the entire game. Stixxay somehow got caught on Kalista by Jax and that was all it took. There's a few takeaways here. First, CLG have consistently shown the ability to get ahead which is a good thing but they seem to throw more often than they win. It'll be interesting to see if they adjust by cleaning up their closes or opting into late scaling. Second, TSM literally closed this game in 6 minutes from a single mistake at an early point in the game (24 minutes). Only the best defensive teams can do that and it's why you don't see many elite teams playing that defensive style. It'll be interesting seeing if they're really that good. I had anticipated they'd be going into the season so maybe this is a sign of confirmation but I want to see more.


Moneyline: Clutch Gaming -167 (4 units)

Clutch took a game off TSM yesterday and have been competitive in almost every game. I had them finishing top 4 in the preseason and still think that's a possibility although it'll likely be 5th. This team is good where it matters in the NA LCS which is mid lane and jungle. OpTic looked very controlled yesterday in a game that could have gone horribly wrong if it had been against a better team than CLG. Clutch is a better team than CLG and I fully expect them to take full advantage of the mistakes OpTic showed yesterday. Unlike CLG, I'm trusting them to not throw a lead away even though they've done that once this season. Clutch is a significantly better team. If you dive into the metrics these teams are very similar but Clutch has also had a slightly harder schedule. This line appears to be set because these two squads have similar records but I think Clutch just outclass OpTic in 4 out of 5 positions right now. They've also shown more strategic diversity.

Result: WIN (+6.4 units)

Clutch probably should have lost this game but had a solid come back. It's good to know they're capable of that but this did not play out the way I thought it would. 


Moneyline: Golden Guardians +355 (1 unit)

(UPDATE: This line has moved from +355 vs -556 to +277 vs -385. I got in for a unit last night, I might not put that down at this line value currently so proceed at your discretion.)

Even the worst teams get a few wins in a season and I think after a spirited attempt at a comeback last night against Echo Fox (they still got stomped), I think GG can feel good about themselves. That being said this isn't as much a bet on GG as it is a bet against a 100 Thieves team that is coming back down to earth and that I expect to come crashing toward my preseason prediction of a  bottom three team. 100 Thieves aren't -556 better than ANYONE and that's what this bet is. I'll lay the unit for the upset.

Result: WIN (+4.55 units), Shout out to Jim for this absolutely savage call. My man has the momentum reads!


Moneyline: Cloud 9 -250 (4 units)

(UPDATE: This line moved from +263 vs -400 to +190 vs -250. I assume this was because of the FlyQuest win yesterday against a tremendously overrated 100 Thieves team with their full lineup finally together.)

This is the exact type of situation you like to see as a bettor. A huge line movement based on two separate overrating factors. 

1) "FlyQuest finally have their full roster and they looked great yesterday!" - While it's true that they finally have their full roster we have to remember that this is a roster that we (I?) were very low on this team going into the season. I had them finishing 9th. So while they're finally together do we really have high expectations for this team?

2) "First day with the full lineup they looked outstanding against 100 Thieves!" - They did look great against 100 Thieves but 100 Thieves is also a team we aren't high on. So how impressive is it really that they're beating up on a stylistically poor matchup, overrated team?

This is a spot where I'd normally go big but I'm going to limit this to 4 units because I think Cloud 9 could maybe have a bit of a let down after a huge win yesterday against Liquid. They also said they did not have a good practice week and were surprised to beat Liquid as badly as they did. I don't normally buy into scuttlebut like that but I think that was more a bad game from Liquid than it was a good game from Cloud 9. That being said I still think Cloud 9 are a top 3 or 4 team and FlyQuest are a bottom 3 team even with their full lineup. This is a great spot for Cloud 9, if you wanted to go heavier than I did I wouldn't blame you.

Result: WIN (+5.6 units) 

This was a game that Fly was up 7 kills but only 2k gold and simply couldn't close against Azir + Vlad + Jinx.


Moneyline: Echo Fox +100  (2 units)

(UPDATE: Line moved from Liquid -118 vs -109 to -128 vs +100)

I was slightly favoring Echo Fox in this game as it was and was going to put a unit on them but I'll up it to two for the slight line value. I think this is just a really bad matchup for Liquid. These two teams are both great. Both play uptempo, know how to close, and have dominant players almost everywhere. But Echo Fox have Huni and Dardoch who are running absolutely wild on the league right now. Impact had a horrific performance yesterday and was really beating himself up about it after the loss and there are a few ways you can look at that. You could say he's going to have a bounce back game today and show everyone why he's been so good for so long or you can bet that he'll have another bad performance, and recoup for next week. I think having to face Huni and Dardoch today is an absolute nightmare situation after a bad performance against rookie Licorice yesterday and Echo Fox play to that side of the map anyway. Combine that dynamic with the fact that Altec and Adrian have historically been a great neutral lane meaning Olleh and Doublelift won't be able to get as big an advantage as they have against other teams, and Fenix having a history of great performances against Pobelter as well as looking great this season and you have a narrative that says Echo Fox can blank the bottom and mid and dominate top on their way to a victory. At the end of the day this is two great teams so it could go either way but I'm going to put a couple units on the matchup plus momentum factor.

Result: WIN (+4 units)

This game was surprisingly mid and bot focused instead of top. Perhaps both teams next leveling each other. Regardless this was a blast to watch.

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