Big/Smart Winners:
Moneyline: Team Solo Mid +149 to defeat Echo Fox
Wager: 2 units
Payout: 4.98 unitsThis was mostly psychology and line value. When a team is backed into a corner they are capable of great things. We've seen this with SKT, ROX, and now TSM amongst other this season. They HAD to have this game. Echo Fox is still quite good and Huni is destroying teams even in losses but they're not perfect.
Moneyline: BiliBili Gaming -1.5 @ +197 to defeat LGD
Wager: 1 unit
Payout: 2.97 units
Keep and eye on the LPL because these grossly inaccurate spreads pop up fairly often and they're worth putting a unit or two on even without completely having viewed every single game for a team as long as you know what they've done recently.
Moneyline: Giants +154 to defeat Vitality
Wager: 1 unit
Payout: 1.54 units
Choo choo, the Vitality overhype train is here to deliver money!
Choo choo, the Vitality overhype train is here to deliver money!
Moneyline: Team Solo Mid -200 to defeat OpTic
Wager: 6 units
Payout: 9 units
Same as the TSM vs Echo Fox. Had to have this game against a bad OpTic roster.
Same as the TSM vs Echo Fox. Had to have this game against a bad OpTic roster.
Moneyline: Misfits -135 to defeat Vitality
Wager: 3 units
Payout: 5.22 units
Combination of overhype on Vitality paying off and Misfits coming into form. This line should've been like -250 or something in hindsight.
ALL OF LPL AND TCL PROP BETS
Combination of overhype on Vitality paying off and Misfits coming into form. This line should've been like -250 or something in hindsight.
ALL OF LPL AND TCL PROP BETS
Currently 73-43 in props this year overall. Absolutely killing it in TCL and LPL. Check to see if lines change drastically to accomdate otherwise keep slamming these.
Losers:
Moneyline: KSV eSports -769 to defeat BBQ Olivers
Wager: 5 units
Payout: LOSS
You guys will see that I lost a 5 unit wager on KSV to beat Afreeca today (for next weeks numbers) making it 15+ units I've lost to this team over 3 bets this year. Clearly I have some type of emotional thing going on with this game because I'm not being logical about it (besides the scheduling thing which made sense). What am I doing laying 5 to make 1 here with a team tha'ts been as two-faced as... well... Two-Face.
Moneyline: KSV eSports -111 to defeat Afreeca (also map 1 and 2 bet)
Wager: 5 + 1 + 1 = 7 units
Payout: LOSS
(read above) I included this because it happened today.
Moneyline: Cloud 9 -278 to defeat 100 Thieves
Wager: 4 units
Payout: LOSS
This one I think was sound logic and not an overaggressive wager for a best of one but I maybe should have put more consideration into the Cloud 9 have some breathing room narrative. Either way this one I can live with.
Lesson Learned:
1) KSV is your kryptonite, stay away:
I don't know what it is but I keep wanting to trust this team to get it's shit together and they just can't. They show up some weeks and don't on others and it makes no sense when they do and when they don't so I'm done trying to play the guessing game on them for awhile.
2) (REPEAT FROM LAST WEEK) Make sure a bad team is as bad as you think and a good team is as good as you think because best of ones really suck if you're not sure.
"Liquid, TSM, Giants... These are teams that haven't proven that they're "elite" teams just good teams. Golden Guardians, UOL... these are two bonafied bad teams but one has a fighting spirit (GG), one is actually bad and I just severely overrated Giants (UOL), and TSM has yet to show me yet that they can punish a mid tier team like Clutch who more or less plays to scale."
TSM get taken off this list, KSV and CLG added to this list.
3) You're absolutely killing it on these props and over/under bets. Let's check the line adjustment and see if our trends and reads on game script continue to match expectations. Currently 73-43 in props and over/unders.
"Liquid, TSM, Giants... These are teams that haven't proven that they're "elite" teams just good teams. Golden Guardians, UOL... these are two bonafied bad teams but one has a fighting spirit (GG), one is actually bad and I just severely overrated Giants (UOL), and TSM has yet to show me yet that they can punish a mid tier team like Clutch who more or less plays to scale."
TSM get taken off this list, KSV and CLG added to this list.
3) You're absolutely killing it on these props and over/under bets. Let's check the line adjustment and see if our trends and reads on game script continue to match expectations. Currently 73-43 in props and over/unders.
Week Six Roundup:
NA LCS: +11.87 units
EU LCS: -1.7475 units
LCK: -0.48 units
LPL: +9.21 units
LMS: +1.28 units
TCL: +8.035 units (this is the past two weeks, I didnt put it in last weeks review)
LCL: -1.0 units
LMS: +1.28 units
TCL: +8.035 units (this is the past two weeks, I didnt put it in last weeks review)
LCL: -1.0 units
Parlays/Combos: 0
TOTAL FOR THE WEEK: +27.1675 units
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