BBQ Olivers (+113, +1.5 @ -286, M1 -101, M2 -101, M3 -101)
@ (Over/Under 37:00, Total Kills 18.5)
SK Telecom (-143, -1.5 @ +209, M1 -128, M2 -128, M3 -128)
KT Rolster (+110, +1.5 @ -227, M1 +106, M2 +104, M3 +104)
@ (Over/Under 36:00, Total Kills 18.5)
Kingzone DragonX (-152, -1.5 @ +166, M1 -139, M2 -141, M3 -141)
Moneyline: Kingzone DragonX -152 (2.5 units)
Moneyline: KT Rolster +1.5 @ -227 (1.5 unit)
This should be an amazing series, maybe the best of the year so far. This was a split series last split and I think that's worth mentioning because these rosters are mostly the same. Longzhu 2 - 0'd the first round robin in summer and KT 2 - 0'd in week 9. KT Rolster are similar to last year in that their ceiling is incredibly high, perhaps the best team in the world high, but their consistency is ever so slightly lacking while Kingzone have been absolutely demolishing everyone. As of this moment I look at Korea in these tiers:
- S+ Tier: Kingzone DragonX (they're the best team in the world right now)
- S- Tier: Afreeca, KSV, and KT Rolster
- A Tier: Jin Air
- B Tier: ROX Tigers, BBQ Olivers, SK Telecom (yes I know even with the upsets)
- C Tier: MVP, Kongdoo
To me the S Tier teams are a clear cut above the rest and I think Kingzone has shown nothing but dominance since their 2 - 0 loss to KSV in the first match of the entire year. They absolutely destroyed Afreeca on January 23rd, made quick work of ROX and Kongdoo last week, and should be able to take down KT Rolster. My only reservation is that Kingzone has relied heavily on gaining massive laning advantages to win games and KT actually has the individual players to keep up with that concept. I'm also not going to rule out the potential of a weird sub situation with Rascal or Cuzz coming in for a game so I'm going to keep this wager on the lighter side. It's very likely that these are the two best teams in the world right now in terms of pure firepower. Every single player in this game looks Hall of Fame bound and this is perhaps a finals preview if KT can get a little more consistent.
I like Kingzone outright because they've shown the ability to close quickly against both great and bad teams and this is a good statement game to cement themselves as the best team in the world. Another factor that's tiebreaking this for me is that Khan is simply been the best player in the world so far this year in my opinion. It's almost like he's just toying with people and he has a number of counterpicks that make him extremely threatening to just pop off in every single game. He gives Kingzone a massive advantage in drafts. KT had a lot of trouble closing against Jin Air and unfortunately we don't get to see if Kingzone has the same issue until later this week yet. Also taking KT to cover here because it's not unreasonable for them to win outright and I do think this will likely be a 2 - 1 series. I want to place a larger wager in Kingzone because we're likely not going to see a line this low for them for the rest of the season but we'll keep this at a tame 2.5 units.
Result: WIN (+4.15 units total)
Result: LOSS (-1.5 unit entry)
These basically canceled each other out for a net of 0.15 units. This ended up being an absolute shellacking by Kingzone. I actually liked PapaSmithy's suggestion on the cast which was that "maybe the LCK is too easy for Kingzone." 12 game wins in a row is impressive enough in a region as good as Korea but they've done it against KT Rolster, who are basically five Hall of Famers and could be described as the ultimate super team, Afreeca who are the weird strategy upstarts that are showing great synergy and peaking at the right time, SKT albeit a struggling version, ROX who are playing really well currently, and had sub 30 minute wins against the bad teams. We could be looking at the next all-time level team here. They went 14-4 last Summer as Longzhu and they look even better now. If the league doesn't figure something out we could be looking at a 17-1 squad here as it appears that Kingzone are just playing LCK "on easy mode."
Moneyline: SK Telecom -143 (2 units)
(UPDATE: I added a unit to SK at -303 after the first blood. I wanted to add one after the draft because I think they have a huge advantage against this Nasus pick but odds were slightly delayed going up and Blossom who got the start managed to get an early first blood in bot.)
(UPDATE 2.0: Added 1.5 units @ -500 after first dragon infernal. SKT have full control of this game)
(UPDATE 3.0: Added another 3 @ -667 after a huge teamfight win at the second infernal.)
(UPDATE 4.0: Added 3 units @ -159 for the series win. SKT Looks substantially better.)
(UPDATE 5.0: Added 2 units @ -189 for specifically map 2. Unfortunately can't bet on an increased handicap at this point but I think this is a 2-0.)
In my Overrated / Underrated Teams update this week I discussed that SK Telecom have shown signs of life since their miserable 0 - 2 loss to MVP last week by playing two competitive games against the red hot Afreeca Freecs who could be considered the 2nd best team right now winning 8 games in a row. I also said I'd be staying away until they show me one more competitive series. I've since contemplated some other factors and am looking at this match as a must win with their season on the line and here's why.
Typically in LCK the 5th place team (LCK only has 5 teams in playoffs), usually finishes with a match record of around 10 - 8 with the game record falling somewhere in area of 28 wins and 20 losses or so. SK Telecom are already at 11 losses and 5 wins with 12 more matches to go. If this team is going to make playoffs they likely need to win 9 of thier next 12 matches. which includes two series against KSV, and one each against KT, Kingzone, and Afreeca. As of right now I'd say it's unlikely to happen and frankly SKT aren't as good as the top 5 teams anyway but I also think that psychological edge is a real thing in sports and esports alike.
BBQ have been a decent team capable of creating plays but they're also very sloppy. In what was close to a must win situation last week SKT let us down twice but they did show signs of life against Afreeca who are a significantly better team than BBQ. Tempt is one of the worst mids in Korea and both Trick and Bono have been unexciting in the jungle for BBQ which are the two key matchup areas for me. Once again this just feels like a Faker pop-off and in a the majority of must win situations, all-time great level players step up and elevate everyone else. My gut wants to up this to 4 but I've set a limit on myself because SK needs to show me something before I can commit to them again.
Result: WIN (Total: +14.87 units)
Result: LOSS (lost the Map 2 bet for -2 units but won the rest)
I don't do a lot of live betting but I happened to be awake to watch this game and there were a lot of clearly defined situations to bet on so I jumped on it and made out like a bank robber. All told this ended up +12.87 units for me. I don't want to get into the habit of live betting and getting absolutely burned for it but if I was doing this full time it'd be the way to go. When it comes to the actual games this should have been a 2-0 by SKT but game two morphed into this 70 minute clown fiesta because of a few mistakes while closing by first start rookie Blossom. For what it's worth, Blossom brought a certain aggressiveness and character to this team that was severely lacking and for as many mistakes as he made there were almost as many great plays including a sick read and great patience on the first blood in game one. This version of SKT is showing promise that they can be in the hunt for that 5th playoff spot. Thal, Blossom, Faker, Bang, Wolf should be the roster moving forward. Faker went completely ballistic this series and it's a damn shame they lost game two because he was laying such a beatdown on Tempt's Corki with Azir that it was borderline embarassing. He's playing with so much confidence and his laning has been more or less perfection for an aggressive player. He hasn't dropped off people he's still playing at a ridiculously high level. I think Khan might be the only player on earth that's playing better right now, MAYBE BDD.
LPL February 7th Schedule (Week 4 Day 3):
BiliBili Gaming (-769, -1.5 @ -175, M1 -400, M2 -400, M3 -400)
@ (Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 18.5)
Topsports Gaming (+450, +1.5 @ +136, M1 +278, M2 +278, M3 +278)
Invictus Gaming (-556, -1.5 @ -175, M1 -385, M2 -385, M3 -385
@ (Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 19.5)
FunPlus Phoenix (+369, +1.5 @ +127, M1 +266, M2 +267, M3 +267)
Moneyline: BiliBili Gaming -769 (2 units)
Moneyline: BiliBili Gaming -1.5 @ -175 (0.5 units)
Moneyline: UNDER 34:00 @ -137 M1, @ -132 M2 (two bets totaling 0.5 units)
I've been looking into China a bit more this week looking to maybe get back on the train so to speak but the one thing that China has shown remarkable consistency in, unlike every other region, is that their bottom teams are absolutely terrible. Both Topsports and Vici Gaming, the two last place teams in their conferences respectively, have a single game win on the season and more impressively, Topsports only win was against LGD, a team that's under .500 themselves. The odds are pretty bad here but as I said, China has been remarkably consistent about their bottom teams being absolutely abysmal.
Result: WIN (+2.26 units)
Result: WIN (+0.785 units)
Result: WIN LOSS (-0.068 units)
Moneyline: Invictus Gaming -556 (2 units)
Moneyline: Invictus Gaming -1.5 @ -175 (0.5 units)
Moneyline: UNDER 34:00 @ -116, M1 and M2 (two bets totaling 0.5 units)
This one isn't quite as lopsided as FunPlus actually have some game wins but Invictus are also in the running for best team in China at the moment so I like them for the same wager. Invictus Gaming have an average game time of 31:53 at the moment over 14 games as well as a league leading average Gold Differential per Minute of +246 while FunPlus Phoenix are averaging 35:00 and a GDpM of -147 which is third worst in the league.
Result: WIN (+2.36 units)
Result: LOSS
Result: WIN WIN (+0.93 units total)
Combination/Parlays:
Parlay (3): SK Telecom -143, BiliBili Gaming -769, Invictus -556 (0.2 units)
Result: WIN (+0.454 units)
Parlay (3): SK Telecom -143, BiliBili Gaming -769, IG @ FFP M1 UNDER 34:00 (0.2 units)
Result: WIN (+0.714 units)
Parlay (3): SK Telecom -143, BBG @ TSG M1 UNDER 34:00, IG @ FPP M1 UNDER 34:00 (0.2 units)
Result: WIN (+1.094 units)
Parlay (3): SK Telecom -143, Invictus -556, BBG @ TSG M1 UNDER 34:00 (0.2 units)
Result: LOSS
Parlay (4): SK Telecom -143, Kingzone -152, Invictus -1.5 @ -175, BBG -1.5 @ -175 (0.2 units)
Result: LOSS
The LPL slate is pretty lopsided and I think SKT should win against BBQ so I like the line value packaging for some cheaper parlays. Also I'm bored and awake to watch these instead of replays.
I quite well on these today. Might make this a thing on days where there are tons of really heavy favorites.
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