These are what I believe the line should be not what I think the books will put it at. I will write this down before looking at the lines the books set for the day as a gauge of whether or not my expectations are in or out of line on the game. I typically weigh my own expectations a lot more because unlike in traditional sports I don't think the books know what they're doing or they just let an algorithm set their lines.
Afreeca Freecs -200 (66.6%) @ SK Telecom
KT Rolster -400 (80%) @ Kongdoo Monster
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LCK February 28th Schedule:
Afreeca Freecs (-102, +1.5 @ -323, M1 -110, M2 -111, M3 -111)
@ (Over/Under 37:00, Total Kills 17.5)
SK Telecom (-123, -1.5 @ +236, M1 -115, M2 -116, M3 -116)
Kingzone DragonX (-909, -1.5 @ -204, M1 -455, M2 -400, M3 -400)
@ (Over/Under 36:00, Total Kills 18.5)
Kongdoo Monster (+538, +1.5 @ +153, M1 +306, M2 +263, M3 +263)
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Moneyline SK Telecom -123 (2 units)
Prop: Map 1 UNDER 37:00 @ -116 (1 unit)
Prop: Map 2 UNDER 37:00 @ -116 (1 unit)
I took some time to rewatch the Afreea vs KSV series over again this time without the immediate post match emotion and to be perfectly honest, both teams played really sloppy and made a lot of errors in these games. Mechanical mistakes, horrific team fight positioning, a situation where Crown just had no idea where his team was when they were already on their way out showed me that KSV absolutely had communication errors. Afreeca weren't too much better. A couple Taliyah walls nearly botched fights for them and I'm finding it hard to be impressed with these teamfight victories when KSV seemed to be playing solo queue in this match with such horrible movement and team fight coordination in game one but by game two they had it all figured out and looked much cleaner.
Similar things could be said about SK Telecom in their most recent effort against ROX Tigers. Sloppy fights, collapse and rotational plays that took way too long and resulted in bloody skirmishes instead of clean kills, and this weird obsession with playing aggressively with scaling champions. SK Telecom are either the most impressive team in this league by playing super aggressive early in games with Azir and Ezreal, or Bang and Faker are just that good. I'm guessing the latter but it gives me some cause for concern.In the current patch, and likely for long time moving forward, the team that gets ahead is going to stay ahead and this is a bit of a long shot call but I think that red side is going to become more prevalent. Counterpicks have been working out quite well since the break and a lot of teams have been innovating with new picks to get an early edge.
I had this line at Afreeca -200 because they've been the stronger team over the course of the season and have wins against stronger teams but in recent weeks they've shown some vulnerabilities that I feel the SKT carries can exploit. I'm going with SK Telecom and here's why:
Similar things could be said about SK Telecom in their most recent effort against ROX Tigers. Sloppy fights, collapse and rotational plays that took way too long and resulted in bloody skirmishes instead of clean kills, and this weird obsession with playing aggressively with scaling champions. SK Telecom are either the most impressive team in this league by playing super aggressive early in games with Azir and Ezreal, or Bang and Faker are just that good. I'm guessing the latter but it gives me some cause for concern.In the current patch, and likely for long time moving forward, the team that gets ahead is going to stay ahead and this is a bit of a long shot call but I think that red side is going to become more prevalent. Counterpicks have been working out quite well since the break and a lot of teams have been innovating with new picks to get an early edge.
I had this line at Afreeca -200 because they've been the stronger team over the course of the season and have wins against stronger teams but in recent weeks they've shown some vulnerabilities that I feel the SKT carries can exploit. I'm going with SK Telecom and here's why:
- SKT: 1908 GPM, 2032 DPM, +83 GD/M
- Afreeca: 1934 GPM, 1753 DPM, +101 GD/M
- Afreeca won the last meeting 2-0 but they were two close, hard fought games and it was the last series that Blank played in. Since Blossom has replaced him in the lineup (whether Thal or Untara has played in top) their record has been 4-0 (8-2). If SKT were competitive in those games with a weaker jungler then I'd assume they can perform even better this time around.
- Afreeca started Aiming yesterday against KSV and still won but as we discussed I personally think that at least in game one it was more a matter of KSV playing horribly than Afreeca necessarily playing really well. (This is a plus for Afreeca btw)
- Both teams have played mostly middle to bottom of the table teams since the break but Jin Air faced Kingzone and took a game. They also got absolutely stomped by the Jin Air Green wings who looked incredible and then... horrible against BBQ.
- Faker and Bang are coming back into form at the same time and that's terrifying. Faker has been absorbing jungle pressure and turning it into kills even on champions that are weak skrimishers like Azir. Bang has had some excellent Kalista and Ezreal performances.
- Bang and Faker are both in the top 5 in damage dealt despite negative gold differentials making them two of the top damage per gold per minute players in the world.
- Faker has historically "had Kuro's number." A handful of Kuro's worst individual performances in his career have been in important matches against Faker. 2015 World Finals, Spring 2016 Finals, 2016 Worlds Semi-finals, the list goes on. For whatever reason (perhaps that he's the best player of all time), Faker is Kuro's kryptonite. It's been over many years, through many metagames and many lineups.
- With the Faker kryptonite idea combined with a metagame coming into his favor and his play steadily improving as the season goes on this just smells like a Faker pop-off series on picks that have been appearing here and there this past week like Ekko or Leblanc.
I'm keeping this light because this series could go either way but I'm sticking with my gut here despite the vast line disparity. SKT have been a team on the rise while Afreeca have shown some holes in the armor. I'm going to take the unders but no other props here. Should be a great series!
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Handicapped: KT Rolster -1.5 maps @ -164 (2 units)
Prop: Map 1 UNDER 36:00 @ -116 (1 unit)
Prop: Map 2 UNDER 36:00 @ -116 (1 unit)
Prop: Map 1 KT Rolster First Blood @ -145 (0.5 unit)
Prop: Map 2 KT Rolster First Blood @ -145 (0.5 unit)
I'm trying desparately not to be too shell-shocked by this bizarre season and the absolute beating we've taken the past two days (-25 units). It's tough. Can KT Rolster be the voice of reason in all of this?
Prop: Map 1 UNDER 36:00 @ -116 (1 unit)
Prop: Map 2 UNDER 36:00 @ -116 (1 unit)
Prop: Map 1 KT Rolster First Blood @ -145 (0.5 unit)
Prop: Map 2 KT Rolster First Blood @ -145 (0.5 unit)
I'm trying desparately not to be too shell-shocked by this bizarre season and the absolute beating we've taken the past two days (-25 units). It's tough. Can KT Rolster be the voice of reason in all of this?
- KT Rolster won the last meeting in two 35 minute stompings.
- KT Rolster just got stomped by ROX Tigers. This was partially due to individual misplays (Pawn sucked) but mostly a fundamental misread on the draft. I have no idea why KT thought ROX would play a long game, perhaps it was scrims but we'll never know. They came out with this dedicated 2-core as if it was still Patch 8.1 and we were playing for 45 minutes and ROX just ran them over with Zoe and Taliyah as well as a Kennen counterpick to Gnar.
- I think that series should be a wake up call to KT Rolster that you can't play the game that way right now (also that ROX isn't to be messed around with). When this team is firing on all cylinders they're incredible, perhaps the best in the world.
- KT can move to within a Kingzone match loss of first place with a win here. A 2-0 would give them even game wins.
- This season has made absolutely no sense and no team seems to be able to get into a rhythm besides SKT currently, Afreeca and Kingzone during their runs. Hopefully that's motivation for these superior teams to stop playing with their food.
- Kongdoo have one a single game in their past 6 matches. Perhaps that's reason to believe they're "due for a win" but I try to stay away from that fundamentally flawed philosophy.
Now Kongdoo do have side choice so I could imagine a world where they do something wild to change things up in game one but I like KT to take care of business, unlike their other top half breatheren this week.
LOL Masters Series (Taiwan) February 28th Schedule:
Machi e-Sports (-244, -1.5 @ +134, M1 -192, M2 -204, M3 -175)
@ (Over/Under 35:00, Total Kills 22.5)
Team Afro (+161, +1.5 @ -185, M1 +132, M2 +139, M3 +121)
Flash Wolves (-345, -1.5 @ -109, M1 -250, M2 -250, M3 -250)
@ (Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 20.5)
J Team (+216, +1.5 @ -125, M1 +165, M2 +162, M3 +149)
Handicapped: Flash Wolves -1.5 @ -109 (2 units)
Prop: FW @ JT Map 1 OVER 34:00 @ -118 (0.5 unit)
Prop: FW @ JT Map 2 OVER 34:00 @ -119 (0.5 unit)
Prop: Machi @ Afro Map 1 UNDER 35:00 @ -123 (0.5 unit)
Prop: Machi @ Afro Map 2 UNDER 35:00 @ -122 (0.5 unit)
J Team might be in 3rd place and their record might be excellent but they lost back to back games against now 2nd place G-Rex after a thorough stomping in game one. Flash Wolves are a cut above the rest of this league with more than three times the gold differential per minute of the second place team (J Team). I'm fairly confident in a 2-0 here from Flash Wolves if J Team struggled with G-Rex. I'm going to put half a unit on the overs in the Flash Wolves/J Team series and the unders in the Machi/Afro series because I think 34.5 is about where the number should be with games either going 35+ or under 34 in the past two weeks in the LMS.
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LCK 2018 Mid-Season "Rest of the Way" Tier List
LCK 2018 Mid-Season "Rest of the Way" Tier List
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