Betting: February 17th (EU LCS / NA LCS / TCL)

European LCS February 17th Schedule (Week 5 Day 2)

Team Vitality -476 @ H2K +315
Giants Gaming -233 @ Unicorns of Love +166
ROCCAT +110 @ FC Schalke 04 -149
Fnatic -200 @ Splyce +148
G2 eSports -128 @ Misfits -104

Yesterday's Record: 5 - 1 (additional 1-1 in live bets) 
Yesterday's Net: +7.5 units


Moneyline: H2K +315 (1 unit)

Doesn't this feel like an upset? H2K got their second win in large part to free agent signing Shook now jungling for them (my bad everyone!). Team Vitality lost in spectacular fashion yesterday to G2 in our Pick of the Week selection nearly being shut out entirely en route to an 11-0 loss. This is a tough spot as a bettor. I think H2K are at least marginally better with Shook and Seflie but I still don't think they're a good team. Maybe this elevates them to C+ tier or B- or something but I don't think Vitality is as good as their record either.  Vitality are still almost two tiers better than them. The question I'm asking now is "Is Team Vitality -476 better than anybody?" I don't know. I'm not entirely sure how "solved" this team is. G2 and Misfits have laid a solid blueprint for other teams to follow but a lot of it has to do with execution. Playing defense in League of Legends is extremely difficult to do well and I'm not sure this H2K squad has had enough time together yet to actively do that well. The other side to this argument is the "get right" game factor for Vitality. They were completely embarassed by G2. A cheesy level 1 invade, skipping camps for back to back ganks, Gilius' risky style bit him this game but G2 are a significantly better team than H2K. I'm not a huge fan of this match in general. The line is a little too big for me. -476 suggests 82.64% for Vitality and I'm thinking this is closer to the 60-70% range but I don't love it. I'm going to put a unit on the underdog here because the value is right and I'm not entirely sure what the Shook/Selfie version of H2K is capable of. My gut tells me it's just a slight improvement and they're still a bottom two team not just based on record but also play. They made plenty of mistakes against ROCCAT today but ultimately got the better of them. I think the bottom and top lanes are a wash it's just a matter of whether Jiizuke/Gilius can get away with something against Selfie/Shook.

Result: WIN (+4.15 units)

Vitality are overrated.












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Moneyline: Giants Gaming -233 (4 units)

Moneyline: UNDER 36:00 @ -116 (1 unit)

(UPDATE: Added 1 unit at ~15 minutes to Giants @ +170. Despite the lead by UoL I don't trust them to close this game out vs the heavy scaling comp from Giants who could 1-3-1 or teamfight better. Kassadin is excellent against Zoe and Gangplank.)

(UPDATE 2: Just kidding, they didn't want to process it! I got in ~21 minutes before big team fight win at +111 for one unit)

Unicorns might actually be the worst team in EU after yesterdays humiliating performance and H2K adding free agents. There are times that it looks like this team are just hanging out throwing back a couple cold ones with the boys but on a professional stage. Was Kold drunk yesterday? This team sucks. They have absolutely no redeeming characteristics and to me very limited upside. Giants are exactly the kind of team to punish them too. I'll just call it now, I think Ruin and Djoko are just going to take over this game. WhiteKnight and Kold have been horrific in all but one game this season and Ruin is exactly the kind of player you want to punish these types of situations. I also think both Betsy and Exileh are due for some regression. Betsy has some room to perform better and I don't think Exileh can maintain his current production if you look at his career. Has he gotten better? Yes. Is he really that good? I doubt it. I like Giants in the "get right" situation after a loss to Splyce that was basically on one crucial error. Also taking the under 36:00 in this game because I think Ruin can just take over this game on a split pusher and end it quickly.

Result: LOSS

Result: WIN (+1.86)

Don't bet against a Zoe that's ahead you idiot... This game looked like Giants were going to be able to scale up and then this sequence of really bizarre fights happened. At least we got the under right? 

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Moneyline: FC Schalke 04  -149 (3 units)

ROCCAT lost to H2K but the thing I was more concerned with was how poorly they looked at moments in this game. They did a good job maintaining focus on objectives and stalled out a couple of situations to prevent this game from being a runaway but against a confident and competitive team like Schalke who played well against Fnatic yesterday. Profit and Memento are roughly even compared to Vizicsasci and Pride as units, Blanc, while good, is a cut below Nukeduck who is an elite mid laner despite a weird performance yesterday (we'll call it an off day), and as good as HeaQ and Norskeren have been I think Upset and Vander are really starting to settle in with good performances yesterday. The longer the season goes the better this Schalke lineup gets even if their record hasn't necessarily showed it. ROCCAT on the other hand have begun to struggle desipte great performances from their solo lanes and rookie support. Slight advantage to Schalke in metrics overall, momentum on the side of Schalke, and, in my opinion, side selection for Schalke, and higher upside for a young and growing team in Schalke make me like them a good bit in this matchup.

Result: LOSS

I'll have to rewatch the VOD for this one to see exactly what happened here.
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Moneyline: Fnatic -200 (3 units)

The only reason this isn't a higher wager is because I actually think Splyce are on the up and up so there's a reasonable chance they could win this game if Fnatic botch their early game but I don't think it's likely. Fnatic have been an excellent tempo team trailing only G2 for early game in my opinion. They're fast, punish macro mistakes, and have experienced and skilled players capable of adjusting to skirmish situations when an enemy is flailing. They're just red hot right now and I don't see them stopping. Keeping it at 3 units for now but I may up this in the morning. Check back for updates.

Result: WIN (+4.5 units)

Couple weird moments but overall Fnatic controlled this game start to finish but it just took awhile to close against a heavy scaling team comp from Splyce (surprise!). Splyce looked pretty good just not on the same level as Fnatic.
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Moneyline: G2 eSports -128 (2 units)

G2 look absolutely unstoppable now but if you're like me and think Vitality were tremendously overrated you won't put too much stock into that win yesterday. I think Misfits are going to end up a top 4 team and are better than Vitality. G2 have superior players in every position except jungle where I feel it's a push or maybe slight edge to Maxlore however it's not a drastic advantage in any position except for mid lane. Perkz has been, in my opinion, the best player in the Western hemisphere so far this year. He's got an absurd 346 gold and 14 cs differential @ 15 which is miles ahead of second. He's the Faker of the west, capable of just taking over any game against any opponent and I feel the manhandling he gave to Jiizuke's Zoe with Galio yesterday was an example that he can even do it on picks not normally associated with carrying. G2 are also BY FAR the best early game team in Europe while Misfits have been middle of the pack all season which really limits their options in the draft even though they'll have side choice for counters here. G2 are the better squad here but I'm not sure by how much so I'm going to keep this at 2 units and think on it some more to perhaps add tomorrow depending on how the line moves.

Result: WIN (+3.56 units)

G2 were able to weather the early game storm from Misfits who had a 3k gold lead for awhile in this game. This was a really close game. Two good teams but one had better scaling (Zoe + Tristana) and made fewer mistakes. If anything this cements Misfits as a top half team to me. 
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North American LCS February 17th Schedule (Week 5 Day 1)

OpTic Gaming -167 @ Golden Guardians +129
Cloud 9 -159 @ Team Solo Mid +118
Clutch Gaming -111 @ FlyQuest -114
Echo Fox -263 @ 100 Thieves +190
Team Liquid -238 @ Counter Logic Gaming +163


Moneyline: Golden Guardians +129 (1 unit)

OpTic try really hard to impersonate recent TSM or KSV. They play slow and defensively and wait for their opponents to make mistakes but struggle to force mistakes proactively and more often than not they struggle to punish the mistakes that are made. Golden Guardians, bless their hearts, try really hard to make aggressive plays but often fail in execution. There are bottom of the metrics players at every position on both of these teams except for Contracts on GG and PowerofEvil on OpTic who have reasonable leads on their positional opposition. I'm going to go with a unit on the team with side advantage and their pride at stake. I'm going to take the underdog Golden Guardians because with this squad it could very well be their only win the rest of the season and they actually had a good showing last week with a win over 100 Thieves and a spirited fight to the end against Echo Fox. This feels like a spot for a weird Hai counterpick like Zed or Fizz or something along those lines. With the patch changes slightly favoring more proactive play I'll take a one unit shot on the "feelin' good" Guardians.  

Result: LOSS
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Moneyline: Team Solo Mid (2 units) 

(UPDATE: Added 1 unit @ +115 to TSM 17 minutes into the game. They've got a better scaling team and I think they've dealt with their mistakes well enough to get there.)

I want everyone to take a second and look at both of these teams. Very slight differences here and there. With an 8 game sample size any of these metrics could skew one way or the other. I'd handicap these teams as say maybe like a -120 vs -100 or something like that. One of these teams is 7-1 and the other is 4-4. So which is accurate and which is due for regression? Well the truth is those are the kinds of numbers that 7-1 teams put up. These two teams are excellent all around. I'm not saying TSM are going to win due to regression but I just thought it'd be worth mentioning for some perspective.

To me this matchup is two very even teams that are both heating up, both built similarly, and both can play every style well. I'm going with TSM mostly based on side choice and my personal player evaluation.

• Top Lane: As good as Licorice has been, Hauntzer has been better. In most metrics Hauntzer is ahead, albeit very slightly and that's as a top laner on a team that's lost four games not a team that's won 7. Non-mid and non-ADC's on losing teams typically have significantly worse production unless they're an elite player. I'm not trying to take anything away from Licorice here but Hauntzer is just better. 
• Jungle: MikeYueng had a rough start and some weird drafts and he's STILL 100g up on second place Dardoch in gold differential @ 15 minutes. He's been part of more first bloods than Svenskeren as well and all of that is on a 4-4 vs a 7-1 team to reiterate that very important point. When a sample size is as small as 8 games and there's a 3 loss difference and the numbers still show a great performance it could mean something.
• Mid: To end this debate, Jensen was better last year overall but Bjergsen has been the better player overall in his career and has historically had Jensens number when they play each other. Contrary to popular memes, Jensen gets a lot more help than Bjergsen does, at least recently, but unlike Jiizuke in Europe, Jensen is the real deal. I think this matchup is essentially a wash unless TSM side advantage gives Bjergsen a counterpick.
• ADC: Zven is just better in every way. Not that Sneaky is bad.
• Support: Probably the two best Western supports. This is a push. Combined, I think Zven and Mithy have the edge.

To me TSM have slight advantages at 4 positions, they get side choice (Cloud 9 is undefeated on red side, I doubt we'll see them there), and they need this win a lot more than Cloud 9 does. I'm not weighing that "need" very much here but it could be a factor. Ultimately I just think TSM is the better team of the two but as I mentioned in the opening, these are the two best teams in NA and if not now, definitely by seasons end regardless of what their records say. They have so much strength and synergy from top to bottom is insane. I wouldn't fault you for taking the other side on this one but I'm going with TSM for 2 units in what is definitely more of an intuition call.

Result: LOSS

Result: LOSS

I liked the idea of Skarner + Taliyah to try snowballing the game out of control and they were two separate one-auto attack escapes from likely taking the first two towers. A bottom lane dive that Sneaky barely escaped from and a top lane dive that Svenskeren arrived to with no less than a second to spare or it turns into a 1-0 and likely a tower. I think TSM are going to be fine and people will talk about TSM "getting stomped" in this game but this is just how games with good teams go. Cloud 9 are an S tier team. IF you make one mistake against an S tier team you lose. This easily could have been a snowballed victory for TSM so we need to avoid the echo chamber talk about this game and come away with the fact that both of these teams are excellent one just won today on some crazy/lucky plays. 

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Moneyline: Clutch Gaming -103  (3 units)

(UPDATE: This line moved from -111 yesterday)

(UPDATE 2: JayJ is starting at support for FlyQuest in place of Stunt. No announcement was made or reason. I'm searching now.)

This is actually a more intriguing matchup than I would've guessed prior to last week. FlyQuest looked better with Fly finally in the lineup and AnDa back in action after a bizarre benching for a week. This is a Clutch team that won against TSM, a team that while not in first place yet is almost definitely going to be at the top of the table and played a hard fought match against league leading Cloud 9 in week 3. I've been preaching that this squad is underrated since before the season started. If you consider that Lira has struggled a lot in a couple games this season it's incredibly impressive how well Febiven has been doing. Usually success in the mid lane is very much tied to your jungler. Febiven is an elite player even if some of the numbers might not say so. He's on the same level as Bjergsen and Jensen in that world class tier. The guy is a baller. 

Now Fly has been good and has a history of throwing off elite players with his strange playstyle but I think he's by far the strongest player on FlyQuest. Every other position has been struggling besides AnDa. Wildturtle at or towards the bottom of the league in every relevant ADC metric, Flame hasn't quite been himself on a consistent basis, Stunt has had a lot of positioning errors despite being solid in lane. Clutch, on the other hand, are rock sol.id at every position besides jungle where Lira has been having one of the worst seasons of his career but again that's relative to one of the best junglers. I trust Lira to be more like he was last weekend. For his career that's where I'd expect him to be on average. Solo has been excellent and perhaps underrated in the shadow of fellow rookie top laner Licorice. The bot lane is also in Clutch's advantage as Apollo and Hakuho are forever underrated. 

FlyQuest get points for having an identity and knowing who they are as a team and playing to it but I think Clutch are the "gatekeepers" for the top half of the NA LCS and I think FlyQuest isn't quite there yet. FlyQuest finally having their full lineup and getting a "big upset" victory over a 100 Thieves team that's tremendously overrated and a stylistically good matchup for them is what has driven this line to almost even. I like the favorites quite a bit here and I may end up upping this a unit or two come game time but I think this line is giving too much credit to recent FlyQuest and not looking at what they really are which is still a 6.5-8th place team. 

Result: WIN (+5.91 units)

Clutch played this slow and steady and just played front to back with their 2-core. FlyQuest oddly played more of a 2-core comp as well which is a little different than their 1-3-1 or uptempo normal style. Similar to last time they used JayJ. Perhaps a trend that they're going to play more slow paced when he's in? I don't know I won't bet on it but I'll keep an eye out for it as a potential trend.

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Moneyline: Echo Fox -244 (4 units)

(UPDATE: This line moved from -263 yesterday)

Moneyline: UNDER 37:00 @ -122 (1 unit)

I think it's strange that this line isn't further apart and actually moved towards 100 Thieves.  You'd think people have finally caught on to 100 Thieves being overrated and solved strategically while Echo Fox are explosive and clearly one of the top teams in NA. From a stylistic standpoint this is a brutally difficult matchup for 100 Thieves as well. Ssumday is a great player but Huni is just on a different level right now and more importantly his chemistry with Dardoch has been world class and something I don't believe 100 Thieves will be able to handle. That Huni + Dardoch duo has been miles ahead of everybody else and if I had to choose to build a team currently it'd be those two in those positions. I do think Meteos being a bit of a Zac specialist over the course of his career could help 100 Thieves salvage a ban if they're willing to pick it early in the draft from whichever side they choose but I'm not sure that's enough. 100 Thieves are outclassed at every single position except MAYBE support which I think is debatable. They're also countered stylistically. Echo Fox play an explosive, uptempo, aggressive style while 100 Thieves prefer to play passive and wait for opponents to make mistakes.I think against elite teams Echo Fox can be overly aggressive and punished for their mistakes but I don't think 100 Thieves have the chops to do that which leads me to think that Echo Fox are just going to run over 100 Thieves in this game. I'm going to take the under as well.

Result: WIN (+5.64 units)

Result: WIN (+1.82 units)

100 Thieves continue to to just roll over and die. They never do anything proactive. This was the lack of hunger that I anticipated happening before the season started and after a hot start it appears the fire is dying out. This team sucks. Why select red side if you're not going to give your best player (Ssumday) the counterpick against the best top laner in the league? I just don't get it. They don't take the Azir, they don't take Zoe, they don't counterpick top... just a fundamental lack of knowledge of the metagame. If I can point this out I don't know what Prolly is thinking but he needs to get his shit together. Regardless this 100 Thieves team seems like they need a coaching or roster change. This is the lamest, most uninspiring play I've ever seen. Even Golden Guardians at least try to fight you they don't just sit there and let their face get beat in. It's like watching Rocky get beat to a pulp and never actually make the come back. YO ADRIAN!

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Moneyline: Team Liquid -238 (3 units)

This is a "get right" game for Team Liquid against a CLG squad that looks dazed and confused that their mediocre, overrated players are playing like mediocre players. Liquid got absolutely embarassed by Cloud 9 last week and you can bet they're putting extra time in this week to fix some of the execution errors that happened in their games last weekend. Really I think this has more to do with Liquid just being a better lineup top to bottom. Considering CLG's frequent early game blunders and inability to play from behind I think if Liquid gets any kind of lead in this game it's just about over. They're an extremely good team from ahead with perhaps the best closing speed in the West and have stronger players at every single position. I might up this to 4 or 5 units come game time. My only hesitation is CLG's side selection and a willingness to play strange picks in a 1-3-1 setting that can randomly steal games. 

Result: WIN (+4.2595 units)

Liquid were more or less in full control of this game other than one baron which wasn't enough for CLG to fight back into the game. 

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Turkish Champions League

SuperMassive TNG -172 @ Royal Bandits +126
HWA Gaming -102 @ Galakticos -133
YouthCrew +150 @ Dark Passage -222
1907 Fenerbahce -385 @ Team AURORA +255

Moneyline: FB @ AUR OVER 33:00 (1 unit)

Two middle of the table teams (by record) in what should be a pretty even game.  Fenerbahce have the longest game time in Turkey by over 5 minutes. They play slow and methodical whether they win or lose. 33 minutes is a really low over/under number that we pretty much only see in the LPL and Turkey due to the speed/sloppiness of these regions and the gaps between the good and bad teams but in a mid table slugfest I expect a long one.

Result: WIN (+1.86 units), 37:12 length although FB surprisingly lost this one.

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