These are what I believe the line should be not what I think the books will put it at. I will write this down before looking at the lines the books set for the day as a gauge of whether or not my expectations are in or out of line on the game. I typically weigh my own expectations a lot more because unlike in traditional sports I don't think the books know what they're doing or they just let an algorithm set their lines.
Afreeca Freecs -120 (54.5%) @ KSV eSports
KT Rolster -233 (70%) @ ROX Tigers
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LCK February 27th Schedule:
Afreeca Freecs (-125, -1.5 @ +240, M1 -116, M2 -116, M3 -116)
@ (Over/Under 37:00, Total Kills 18.5)
KSV eSports (-111, +1.5 @ -357, M1 -116, M2 -116, M3 -116)
KT Rolster (-333, -1.5 @ -104, M1 -250, M2 -250, M3 -250)
@ (Over/Under 37:00, Total Kills 18.5)
ROX Tigers (+245, +1.5 @ -125, M1 +175, M2 +176, M3 +176)
Moneyline: KSV eSports -111 (5 units)
Moneyline: KSV eSports Map 1 -116 (1 unit)
Moneyline KSV eSports Map 2 -116 (1 unit)
The first time these teams met this season was a hard fought series that went 47 minutes in game one to an Afreeca victory, then to a 71 minute slugfest that Afreeca missed out on ending by one auto attack on the nexus (literally one auto it's right here), followed up by a swift and decisive game three win by KSV against a clearly tilted Afreeca. Now you could look at this one of a few ways. The first is that Afreeca are clearly the stronger squad and should have 2-0'd this series in 47 minute game and roughly a 35 minute game. Another is the KSV are now in their heads much like the Patriots and their crazy comebacks seem to get into peoples heads in the NFL. At the time KSV was coming off of back to back 2-0 victories against Kingzone and Jin Air Green Wings and looked well on their way to disproving the championship hangover that typically happens. After that gut wrenching loss Afreeca proceeded to rattle off 10 game wins in a row. It wasn't until their first match after the week off against Jin Air that they finally lost a game and they did so in startling fashion. The Kingzone series was extremely close as well but ultimately a 1-2 loss. On the other hand KSV dropped a match 0-2 to bottom tier Kongdoo and their Galio comps, 1-2 against the upstart ROX tigers, and then two more 0-2s against a desparate SK Telecom and a close but winless 0-2 against top contender KT Rolster.
I'm going with KSV and here's why:
- For as good as Afreeca have looked (and damn is it exciting to have another contender), their 10 game winning streak was against the bottom 5 teams which included a struggling SK Telecom, and a ROX Tigers lineup that hit their stride immediately after that series. This leads to a little bit of public overestimation. In other words Afreeca have decimated the bottom tier temas but struggled with the top 5 (and Jin Air apparently).
- KSV have shown better against the top teams, even in losses.
- Similarly to the LPL topic yesterday, in a long season the good teams tend to "decide to start playing" a little bit later so as to avoid burnout. KSV it's less extreme a case than with EDG yesterday but I think theat lull of games was mostly just lazy drafting and likely lazy practice in the middle of the season in a metagame that they just assumed they'd win because of their history in the style.
- KSV have shown a willingness to play aggressive again, something that was severely lacking in their weird mid-season lull.
- Individually I like every player on KSV slightly over their Afreeca counterpart except for AF jungler Spirit and KSV top laner CuVee who I feel has a decided advantage against Kiin even with Kiin playing well this split.
- KSV: 1855 gold per minute, 1878 damage per minute, -24 gold differential per minute but only a -77 at 15 minutes
- Afreeca: 1927 gold per minute, 1772 damage per minute, +75 gold differential per minute, but only +185 at 15 minutes (MOST OF THIS COMES FROM AF's 57% First blood rate)
- The tale of the tape shows us the KSV are typically doing more with less and have a similar record despite early game deficets during their weird mid-season lull.
- In my Mid-Season "Rest of the Way" tiers for LCK I had KSV in the S+ and Afreeca alone in the S tier half a tier below them for a reason.
- KSV have side choice.
- KSV's last match was Thursday and they don't play another match until this coming Sunday while Afreeca played a tough series against Kingzone Saturday morning and have to come right back to play this one Tuesday morning and another tough matchup against a hungry and surging SK Telecom team on Thursday.
To me this is largely a momentum play. As impressed with Afreeca's improvement as I am (I had them underrated going into the season), they're still not quite to the level of the top three teams in Korea. Sure they can take games off of them but Afreeca are solidly in 4th place to me and there is a reason they'll finish there, they can't consistently beat KSV, KT, and Kingzone. Their opportunity to beat KSV was in week three and they just couldn't. KSV on the other hand seems to be waking up from their slumber and preparing for a playoff push. The counter argument would be to say that Afreeca are extra motivated for this match because of how the first one ended but I think the combination of the extremely tilting manner in which they lost having a boogeyman effect and their absolutley brutal schedule this week could have the opposite effect. KSV get to put some extra day's focus into this match that Afreeca unfortunately did not get the chance to. I think this could be a 2 - 0 for KSV so I'm putting a unit on each game score as well.
Result: LOSS
Result: LOSS
I'm done with this KSV team. Two-faced is an understatement. This is like that scene from Beerfest where the guy wakes up with the woman he slept with when drunk. I mean look, Afreeca are a good team so this isn't like the biggest upset in history or anything like that but just the manner in which KSV went down in this series gives me very little hope the rest of the way against literally any team that's giving a shit about the games. So maybe they'll beat the bottom of the table teams or maybe they'll kick it back into gear if their playoff hopes are threatened but this was just a lazy, miserable performance. Very few teams ever get the luxury of the individual players KSV has, the money and resources, and the schedule that spoon fed them this win because it's the only game they need to give a damn about in a 7 day period. They squandered all of that. Props to Afreeca who I think are just the better team after having effectively 4-0'd this KSV team. I was misguided to think these guys would show up.
I'm done with this KSV team. Two-faced is an understatement. This is like that scene from Beerfest where the guy wakes up with the woman he slept with when drunk. I mean look, Afreeca are a good team so this isn't like the biggest upset in history or anything like that but just the manner in which KSV went down in this series gives me very little hope the rest of the way against literally any team that's giving a shit about the games. So maybe they'll beat the bottom of the table teams or maybe they'll kick it back into gear if their playoff hopes are threatened but this was just a lazy, miserable performance. Very few teams ever get the luxury of the individual players KSV has, the money and resources, and the schedule that spoon fed them this win because it's the only game they need to give a damn about in a 7 day period. They squandered all of that. Props to Afreeca who I think are just the better team after having effectively 4-0'd this KSV team. I was misguided to think these guys would show up.
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Moneyline: KT Rolster -1.5 @ -104 (3 units)
Moneyline: KT Rolster Maps 1 and 2 UNDER 37:00 @ -125 (1 unit each)
Moneyline: KT Rolster Maps 1 and 2 FIRST BLOOD @ -152 / -149 (1 unit each)
KT are in form and looking like the superteam that they are and they have an easy schedule this week which can go one of two ways. They play to show nothing and maybe lose a game because of it or they continue innovating to make a push for the #1 seed and maybe show more things for other teams to have to manage in the draft. With the Telecom War as well as a match with KSV next week I think there's a slight chance this becomes a week to keep things under wraps but with how SKT ran over ROX the other day I can't see a significantly stronger KT Rolster squad not doing exactly the same thing. I like this ROX team and there is a still a chance for them to make playoffs but I think they're more likely to be focused on their match later this week against BBQ Olivers, one of their competitors for that final playoff seed along with Jin Air and SK Telecom. With two wins this week KT Rolster can all but lock up a playoff spot so I'm trusting them to take care of business here.
Result: LOSS
Result: WIN WIN
Result: LOSS WIN
Man this ROX Tigers team is fiesty. I really didn't like the draft from KT who simply HAD TO KNOW that ROX was going to take the fight to them and I think it lost them the game in both games. The first game was a lot less forgiveable a game for KT. The second was just ROX playing exceptionally well and executing a Taliyah+Tristana comp to perfection but the first there were a lot of errors by Pawn and he and Score did not seem on the same page. The real thing I'm wondering is whether or not people continue to underestimate this ROX Tigers team or if they're simply that good. Maybe it's a little bit of both.
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LOL Pro League February 27th Schedule:
Team WE (-200, -1.5 @ +156, M1 -167, M2 -161, M3 -154)
@ (Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 18.5)
JD Gaming (+155, +1.5 @ -208, M1 +128, M2 +128, M3 +128)
TopSports Gaming (+126, +1.5 @ -250, M1 +113, M2 +112, M3 +112)
@ (Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 18.5)
FunPlus Phoenix (-175, -1.5 @ +175, M1 -152, M2 -152, M3 -152)
Moneyline: JD Gaming +155 (1 unit)
Moneyline: JD Gaming +1.5 @ -208 (2 units)
Moneyline: JD Gaming Maps 1 and 2 First Blood (0.5 units each)
Similarly rated teams sit in similar positions within their conferences. As much as I like to think the whole "time to start trying again" narrative that we've been riding yesterday and today is a thing for worlds participants Team WE I don't think they've really settled on a roster that they like yet. There is a constant shuffle with three junglers and three supports that has to be maddening despite the strength of the players that remain starting.
Both teams are coming off of relatively disappointing losses as well so I'm not entirely sure why Team WE is such a heavy favorite in this game. Loken has been one of the best players in China this split with an absolutely ridiculousy 10.1 KDA over 17 games so far and Yagao has been absolutley crushing it on a variety of picks with the help of Clid.
With a 76% first blood rate I'm also going to roll with some wagers on that.
- Roster volatility for WE
- First blood in fast region with a faster patch than we've seen all season
- Arguably the best ADC in China at the moment in Loken in a totally stacked pool at the position.
- Line value
- Side choice for JD Gaming
Result: LOSS
Result: LOSS
Result: WIN LOSS
JD got smashed in these games simply put. It happens. World Elite are the better team and showed it.
JD got smashed in these games simply put. It happens. World Elite are the better team and showed it.
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Moneyline: TopSports Gaming +126 (1 unit)
TopSports Gaming came back from the Chinese New Year break with two new solo lanes. Hall of Fame bound, former world champion MaRin (ex-SKT, LGD, and Afreeca) and multi-world championship participant Corn. They got their first match victory 2-1 against Vici Gaming (the worst team in the league). While it might not mean much to barely beat the bottom team in the league these are two game changing players. MaRin inparticular has played with Chinese lineups before (in LGD) and despite his age and limited champion pool causes a lot of problems for enemy teams in drafts even as recently as last Summer in the LCK. MaRin is still good and it's surprising none of the lower ranked Korean teams took a flyer on him even in a leadership role. Regardless I'm willing to lay a unit on the Corn + MaRin effect. FunPlus Phoenix did just upset JD Gaming and take a game off of Invictus but the truth is this isn't really a good team and I'm sure during their extended times in the professional scene in both Korea and China that GimGoon has had his ass kicked by MaRin a bunch of times.
Result: LOSS
I'm ok with this lottery ticket loss. There's a reason I kept it to one unit but it appears FPP might but on a slight uptick.
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LCK 2018 Mid-Season "Rest of the Way" Tier List
LCK 2018 Mid-Season "Rest of the Way" Tier List
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