ROX Tigers (+350, +1.5 @ +101, M1 +207, M2 +208, M3 +208)
@ (Over/Under 37:00, Total Kills 18.5)
KSV eSports (-556, -1.5 @ -137, M1 -303, M2 -303, M3 -303)
Afreeca Freecs (-278, -1.5 @ +100, M1 -227, M2 -227, M3 -227)
@ (Over/Under 37:00, Total Kills 18.5)
Kongdoo Monster (+198, +1.5 @ -137, M1 +169, M2 +169, M3 +169)
Moneyline: KSV eSports -556 (5 units)
Moneyline: KSV eSports -1.5 @ -137 (3 unit)
While I think this ROX squad is the "best of the rest" in LCK fitting somewhere into those 6th and 7th spots that won't make playoffs I don't think they're able to hang with the elite teams. They stole a game from KT Rolster last week in which KT was trying to style just a little too much against an Azir+Kogmaw composition and got punished for it but other than that they've been unable to even take games from the likes of Afreeca and Kingzone. If you consider KSV one of those top 4 teams, which you most certainly should, then it's reasonable to expect a 2 - 0 here. I'm a tad aprehensive because KSV dropped a game to BBQ last week but they've had a few extra days to prepare for this one and have a few more off this week before their second game. I've been keeping my handicap bets fairly tame so that I cover my entry in the scenario where the underdog steals a game but this line should be a good chance to make some money.
Result: LOSS
Result: LOSS
Ok, ROX look like a team with a chip on their shoulder. They actually look quite good and, similar to BBQ, are able to punish sloppy mistakes by better teams. KSV just made too many of those today. I'm annoyed at this one. KSV were pretty clearly overconfident here. In game two their disrespect ended up working out and turned into a stomp but ROX showed up to play today. All that said, I do think that ROX deserved this win. I don't know when it's going to happen but teams need to start banning Zoe. Almost every single "upset" victory this season has been at the hands of that champion and while I know good teams believe it's easy to play around her, they can't always do that as it seems. We should probably keep bets to 4 units or less until she's nerfed games just get too out of hand OR too hard to close with her in the game.
Moneyline: Afreeca Freecs -278 (4 units)
Moneyline: Afreeca Freecs -1.5 @ +100 (2 units)
Afreeca look really good. I had them pretty firmly in the 5th spot going into the season before SK Telecom had a complete meltdown and I think they stand in the 4th spot today. I don't think they're quite as good as KT Rolster, KSV, and Kingzone but I do think they're in that "S-" tier as they're pretty clearly better than the rest of the LCK. They played some competitive games against SKT on Sunday but despite the poor play in general from SKT this season, I think they're superior to Kongdoo by a fair amount especially in the games played on Sunday where they looked at least a little better. This is likely a 2 - 0.
Result: WIN
Result: WIN
Afreeca are the real deal. I know this was only a victory over Kongdoo but Afreeca are doing what great teams do and that's absolutely demolishing bad teams. I don't think it's out of line to call Afreeca the second best team in Korea at the moment. They've now won 8 games (4 matches) in a row and they're doing so in convincing fashion. They seem to have two main strategies that nobody else is really running at the moment and both center around 2-3 Trinity Force users. Some combination of Gangplank, Camille, Jax, and Corki seems to be working and if that doesn't do it then they've shown a willingness to play 1-3-1. These are two weird enough strategies, at least in this meta, that you can't ban both so they've got a lot of momentum right now until other teams figure out a way to deal with it. It's worth mentioning that Kuro has picked up exactly where he left off last season, absolutely crushing it. At one point in game two today he was level 18 to Raise's level 12 on Leblanc. Spirit has seemingly recaptured his former glory as well showing the ability to play a variety of bot on and off meta picks to a high level. But the real treasure is Kiin. The rookie has been dominant and when combined with Kuro and a refreshed Spirit other teams are struggling to keep up with the top side of the map against Afreeca.
Their only losses have been to Kingzone (0-2) and KSV (1-2). They defeated KT Rolster 2-1 and have absolutely destroyed all the mid and low tier teams. I don't think it's unreasonable, especially after today, to call Afreeca the 2nd best team in Korea right now. They're way more consistent than KSV and KT have been, and Kingzone looks like the best team on earth. Am I too late to the party on this one? I've got a couple days to think about it but it sure looks like we can bank on Afreeca convincingly whooping on the bottom of the table at the very least.
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