Betting: February 25th (LCK / LPL / LMS / TCL / NA LCS)

Personal Early Line Projections:
These are what I believe the line should be not what I think the books will put it at. I will write this down before looking at the lines the books set for the day as a gauge of whether or not my expectations are in or out of line on the game. I typically weigh my own expectations a lot more because unlike in traditional sports I don't think the books know what they're doing or they just let an algorithm set their lines. 

Jin Air @ KT Rolster -300 (75%)
BBQ Olivers -150 (60%) @ MVP



OpTic Gaming vs Team Solo Mid -400 (80%)
FlyQuest vs 100 Thieves -117 (54%)
Echo Fox -186 (65%) vs Team Liquid
Counter Logic Gaming -150 (60%) vs Golden Guardians
Cloud 9 -150 (60%) vs Clutch Gaming

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NA LCS February 25th Schedule:

Team Solo Mid -200 @ OpTic Gaming +154
100 Thieves -119 @ FlyQuest -111
Echo Fox -159 @ Team Liquid +119
Counter Logic Gaming -192 @ Golden Guardians +149
Cloud 9 -169 @ Clutch Gaming +128


Moneyline: Team Solo Mid -200 (6 units PICK OF THE WEEK)

Team Solo Mid have had more struggles this season than perhaps any other time in their history as an organization but when they needed a win yesterday against an 8-1, first place Echo Fox team they showed the same level of proactivity and aggression that they did against Cloud 9. It wasn't reckless but it was decisive and clean. This is exactly what I've been looking for TSM to do all season long. They've been playing so passively that it has become a detriment because they let inferior teams stay in games that they have no business being in. Now I do have my concerns. TSM have only shown this kind of aggression with Bjergsen playing Taliyah and Galio so it's possible teams could ban both out but I think it's more likely they take the Galio and leave the Taliyah with so many other necessary bans. 

Team Solo Mid is my Pick of the Week and here's why:

• Had two different roams/ganks gone one auto attack differently TSM would have likely snowballed and defeated Cloud 9, the other top team in North America.
• Had that happened they would have defeated the #1 and #2 in back to back weeks.
• OpTic Gaming : 1761 gold per mind, 1821 damage per min, -51 gold differential per min, -362 gold differential at 15 minutes
• TSM: 1855 gold per min, 2080 damage per min, +11 gold differential per min, +1119 gold differential at 15 minutes.
• TSM have the advantage individually at every single position
• TSM have the advantage in the top+jungle and mid+jungle pairings.
• TSM have a severe advantage in the bottom lane.
• If OpTic starts rookie call-up Dhokla again today he'll have a significantly harder time than he did against Lourlo (likely the weakest top laner in NA this split) who he faced yesterday. TSM's Hauntzer is one of the best at the position in the league.
• Despite generally passive play until recent weeks, TSM have a 57.3 Early Game Rating (50 is base so above means good, below means bad). 
• OpTic have a 46.9 Early Game Rating (worse than expected value)
• Like them or not, TSM have a collection of the best individual players in North America and are starting to finally gel together after early season struggles.

I had this TSM team starting slow, growing into their potentially sky high ceiling and finishing the Spring Split with a title. While I may not have them finishing with the title still, this team is still significantly better than they've shown so far this year. After a rocky start that hasn't had them in the top half until this week, I think it's time for them to finally realize that potential. These are a handful of veteran players and OpTic is a bottom 3 team, that despite some good performances, has more or less met the expectations of an 8th place or so team.

Result: WIN

MikeYeung looked much more disciplined and Bjergsen just destroying people on Ryze. This was a pretty clean victory.

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Moneyline: FlyQuest +116 (2 units)

(UPDATE: As I was writing this this line moved to 100t -147 @ Fly +116) 

(UPDATE 2: Added half a unit since this line moved yet again to FlyQuest +131)

(UPDATE: 3: This draft sucks and is way too execution based for this roster. I hedged entirely)

FlyQuest and Liquid played a really weird game yesterday that FlyQuest could have potentially come back in after a couple of Liquid throws. It just had really bizarre pacing and decision making by both squads. Now sometimes teams fall into weird games and act strangely themselves but I think that more or less cemented FlyQuest as a cut below the top half teams which is something I already thought of them. 100 Thieves looked really clean in their upset victory over Cloud 9. They were showing proactive play for a change and not just rolling over and dying! Perhaps their claims of a new direction are true but I'm taking FlyQuest. 

People tend to overreact to upset victories over top teams. That was one of the only games in NA LCS I didn't bet this season was CLG after they defeated Echo Fox because I wasn't going to fall into the trap narrative that "they beat the best team." If a team shows a trend or consistent performance against top teams (like TSM in recent weeks) that's a different situation. One game does not a trend make. This 100 Thieves team benefitted greatly from having a good read on the metagame, a meta that happened to allow them 50/50 chances to beat better teams. While I admire their adaptation and new approach yesterday I happen to think they were "up" for chopping down Cloud 9, who had a really oddly passive draft perhaps to match 100T. 

This match is going to have a playoff atmosphere. Both teams are fighting for the 5/6th spot but I like FlyQuest slightly morre here. This feels like a Fly pop-off on Aurelion Sol or Twisted Fate or something to me. They have side choice for counterpick, they need this game really badly so they'll be pulling out all the stops. While tempted to take the UNDER also I'm going to hold off because I think these two teams might just play this really carefully. I also think FlyQuest with their full lineup are a slightly better team than 100T as mentioned here:

Result: LOSS

I understand what FlyQuest were trying to do here. Punish the usual scaling style of 100 Thieves but when you know Aphromoo is willing to play Thresh and Blitzcrank against this all squishy team siege comp which is the perfect pick then you can't blind pick it from blue side. I hedge this entire bet as the draft ended to cancel it out.

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Moneyline: Echo Fox -159 (1 unit)

I'm having a tough time getting a read on this game. Team Liquid looked to be in position to stomp OpTic yesterday and really struggled closing the game out at times and Echo Fox had this really bizarre draft against TSM and while Huni did everything in his power to carry he just couldn't as Fenix had perhaps his worst performance of the split. Both teams are coming off of really weird day one matches but I think Echo Fox get right and take this game. Liquid haven't really shown they care to utilize any strange or outside the box counterpicks so while side selection gives them an edge it's not a huge one. To me this matchup comes down to Dardoch and Huni just being extremely difficult to deal with and Xmithie and Impact have shown moments of collapse this season, albeit not often. I'm not going heavy on this one but I do think Echo Fox take it down.

Result: WIN

Jeez this was close for about 8 minutes and then Echo Fox just ran wild on it. Huni pulled all the pressure but Fenix just went absolutely nuts on Ryze.

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Moneyline: Golden Guardians +149 (1 unit)

This is admittedly a bit of a line value bet. I don't like to bet heavy on two bad teams facing off but I had this line at CLG -150. I think CLG is bad but I do think they're the better team here. I'm hanging my hat on one major factor and that's been that has been CLG's complete ineptitude in playing with a lead vs Golden Guardians never give up attitude. Doesn't this just feel like the kind of loss that leads to a coaching or player change? Maybe Hai has a spicy counter cooked up but this could just as easily be a draft blunder by a bad GG team and they forget to ban Aurelion Sol and CLG stomps. I'm going to lay a unit on the underdogs here based on CLG's lack of ability to close a game and GG fighting tooth and nail to the very end.

Result: WIN

This CLG team sucks so bad. "Hey guys, let's pick a 1-3-1 split push comp with twisted fate to throw off this bad GG team. SOUNDS GOOD" *proceeds to team fight*

Somebody needs to be fired or benched even if temporarily. I'm admittedly a bit of a CLG hater but these players, while overrated, are not that bad. This is a dumpster fire. Maybe a new coach or new direction or maybe try the academy squad or some players or something because this is awful. They look so desparate but this is really basic fundamental stuff that they're doing wrong week in and week out.

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Moneyline: Clutch Gaming +128 (1 unit)

This line was more or less where I thought it would be. My gut tells me that Cloud 9 might do what they did yesterday against 100 Thieves. "They can't pressure early so let's just pick a better scaling team than them." This strategy has been notoriously bad this split and led to so many upsets especially when the team thinking it doesn't have side choice, realizes that they've given up Azir or Gangplank (blue side) or a counterpick (red side). It happened to Cloud 9 yesterday, it happened to G2 yesterday against Fnatic with the Sivir pick. Now maybe that's not how this ends up and we end up with Cloud 9 adjusting by saying "Screw that we should just roll these guys." I'm going to put a unit on Clutch here even though I think Cloud 9 is the better team for a couple reasons.

• They need the win slightly more than Cloud 9 do.
• The get side choice
• Febiven and Solo can actually match Jensen and Licorice.
• Bot lanes can match although I do think Cloud 9's is slightly better.
• Lira is usually slightly worse than Sven but his ceiling to me has always been a little higher so he could have one of those pop off games.
• Clutch, while not the most proactive team, don't make a lot of mistakes so they do a good job of forcing games closer to 50/50.
• Cloud 9 potentially wanting to experiment with a different strategy since they've more or less clinched playoffs already. (depends on if they want to fight for #1 seed)

Result:

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LOL Champions Korea February 25th Schedule:

Jin Air GW (+209, +1.5 @ -135, M1 +168, M2 +162, M3 +153)
@ (Over/Under: 37:00, Total Kills 18.5)
KT Rolster (-278, -1.5 @ +100, M1 -227, M2 -227, M3 -213)

BBQ Olivers (-156, -1.5 @ +172, M1 -139, M2 -143, M3 -143)
@ (Over/Under: 36:00, Total Kills 22.5)
MVP (+117, +1.5 @ -238, M1 +102, M2 +105, M3 +105)

Moneyline: KT Rolster -278 (4 units)

Moneyline: KT Rolster -1.5 maps @ +100 (1 unit)

Moneyline: Maps 1 and 2 UNDER 37:00 @ -111 and -109 (1 unit each)

Moneyline: KT Rolster Map 1 and 2 FIRST BLOOD @ -139 and -141 (1 unit each) 

Afreeca had some absolutely terrible drafts as they tried to experiment with some new picks coming out of the week off but they did not work. Jin Air capitalized and punished accordingly but despite an excellent performance I can't put as much weight on it as I would have without the Nidalee and Poppy jungle selections. I don't want to say Afreeca didn't show up to this game but they were clearly in "let's try something different" mode and they got punished for it. Give credit where it's due. Grace and Teddy are doing their best to carry this team and are certainly good enough to but I don't think they can match a KT Rolster team that I don't expect to horse around like Afreeca did. I think most teams respect this Jin Air team because they respect how good Teddy is but how much of an advantage can Teddy get against Deft and Mata? That's the other aspect of this matchup to me. Jin Air's strongest players simply aren't that much better or worse than Pawn and Deft/Mata. I'm jumping on KT here. I might actually add another unit or two to the -1.5 because I think this is a statement game for KT to move themselves into a share of first heading into next week.

Result: WIN

Result: LOSS

Result: LOSS LOSS

Result: WIN WIN 

Game one was a sloppy bloodbath of a game that KT honestly threw. They were up 8-0 at 20 minutes and decided to dive into base and JAG started mounting a comeback from that so this game took 42 minutes. KT were styling just a bit too hard. KT's bot lane absolutely roflstomped Teddy in bot. I'm really not entirely sure how KT didn't 2-0 this series. KT seemed to win every skirmish but they weren't getting objectives off of won fights. They struggled closing against the resilient Jin Air. KT are extremely good at skirmishing which I think is going to become more popular next patch with tracker's knife gone. They're just so decisive and committed to every call. They feel like an LPL team that are winning games in Korea. I think with some improvement on closing games out and getting things off of won fights they could be the best team in the world. 

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Moneyline: BBQ Olivers -156 (1 unit)

Moneyline: Maps 1 and 2 UNDER 36:00 @ -109 (0.5 units each)

I can't tell if MVP stomping game two against BBQ the first time around was because they got Zoe or because they had tilted BBQ from an weird throw in the first game. Regardless I don't think BBQ are going to let Ian have Azir or Zoe again and if BBQ want to make a playoff run they have no losses to give. I'd prefer BBQ in this matchup whether it was Bono or Trick but I'm really curious whether or not MVP play Pilot. Pilot has been a part of 3 of their 4 game wins and I'm not entirely sure why he isn't getting more starts. This game might be close with him playing. 

The thing is BBQ are a sloppy team. They can look so good at time but they're just a sloppy, scrappy team. A lot of their metrics paint that picture. Their damage per minute as a team is, along with Kongdoo, almost 200 lower than the rest of the league and they're not exactly rolling 1-3-1 compositions all the time. Most of the fights they take are short and sweet, they don't perform well in longer games and prefer picks and skirmishes to larger scale team fighting. I think they can force these types of situations against MVP but because I don't trust them to be consistent performers I'm limiting this to 1 unit.

Result: LOSS

Result: WIN LOSS


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LOL Pro League (China) February 25th Schedule:

Invictus Gaming (-139, -1.5 @ +195, M1 -125, M2 -125, M3 -125)
@ (Over/Under: 35:00, Total Kills 20.5)
Snake eSports (+102, +1.5 @ -278, M1 -109, M2 -109, M3 -109)



Royal Never Give-Up (-135, -1.5 @ +195, M1 -118, M2 -119, M3 -119)
@ (Over/Under: 36:00, Total Kills 20.5)
Team WE (+105, +1.5 @ -270, M1 -112, M2 -114, M3 -114)


Moneyline: Invictus Gaming -139 (2 units)

Moneyline: Invictus Gaming -1.5 @ +195 (0.5 units)

Moneyline: Maps 1 and 2 UNDER 35:00 @ -116 (1 unit each)

In the LPL a slugfest battle between the two top teams isn't the same as it is in other regions. Usually they're fast games. All of the meetings between top 3 teams in each conference this split have been sub 35 minutes hence the under. These teams are both excellent but neither are good defensive teams so once mistakes are made games end. I think Invictus have a slightly better roster here and in China the individual players tend to matter a lot more with a select few exceptions (Qiao Gu Reapers last year). I'm willing to put a half unit on the 2-0 for a good payout as well.

Result: WIN

Result: WIN

Result: LOSS LOSS

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Moneyline: Team WE +105 (2 units)

Moneyline: Maps 1 and 2 UNDER 36:00 @ -116 (1 unit each)

Looking at the rosters makes you wonder how these two worlds competitiors have fallen so hard from grace but the LPL is a long season and my gut tells me these teams likely haven't kicked practice into gear yet. Yea that's stupid narrative driven bs but whatever. WE look like the better team to me and I don't know why RNG are favored by as much as they are so we'll throw a few units at this. They've got a positive gold differential per minute, score first blood in over half their games, and RNG are likely going to just let them do that with how slow they play in their winning games. WE have better quality wins as well IMO. We'll take a flyer on this but if I bust because I'm betting on two low to mid tier teams and that's where they end up then I'll be ok with it. This time last year this would've been a storied rivalry. One of these two should kick into gear for the second half of the season. They also get side selection.

Result: LOSS

Result: WIN WIN

Uzi returned to play tonight after some time off. I still would've wagered in this way but it did make a difference.

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League Masters Series (Taiwan) February 25th Schedule:


Team Afro (-152, -1.5 @ +195, M1 -139, M2 -133, M3 -139)
@ (Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 24.5)
Hong Kong Attitude (+109, +1.5 @ -303, M1 +100, M2 -104, M3 +100)

Moneyline: OVER 34:00 @ -106 and -109 (0.5 units each)

These two teams continue to play slowly even on the new patch and both seem incapable of really fast closing speeds. They're sloppy. I like the over 34. This might be the only over I've taken this entire week but on this one it makes sense.

Result: WIN WIN


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Turkish Champions League February 25th Schedule:

YouthCrew -112 @ Team AURORA -123
1907 Fenerbahce -1429 @ Galakticos +609
Royal Bandits -294 @ Dark Passage +204
HWA Gaming +770 @ SuperMassive TNG -2500

Moneyline:1907 FB @ Galakticos UNDER 32:00 @ -167 (1 unit)

Moneyline: HWA @ SuperMassive UNDER 32:00 @ -167 (2 units)

Moneyline: Royal Bandits @ Dark Passage UNDER 32:00 @ -105 (2 units)

Moneyline: Royal Bandits @ Dark Passage  RB First Blood @ -141 (1 unit) 

Moneyline: Royal Bandits @ Dark Passage  RB First Blood @ -129 (1 unit)

Keeping up with a handful of trends I've noticed from the remarkably predictable TCL. 

Results:  (in order) LOSS LOSS WIN WIN WIN

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LCL (CIS) February 25th Schedule:

Dragon Army +110 @ RoX -152
EPG +196 @ Vega Squadron -286
Gambit -263 @ RoX +185
Dragon Army -143 @ Team Just Alpha +105
M19 -333 @ Vaevictis eSports +210
Team Just Alpha +215 @ Gambit -345

Moneyline: RoX +185 to defeat Gambit (1 unit)

RoX beat Gambit the first time around and while I think this Gambit roster has stronger players (this is 4/5 of the ANX lineup that went to worlds quarters) RoX clearly had something right the first time around and their metrics are pretty bonkers. Riddem has been roflstomping in the top lane with an 11.4 KDA over 6 games on Gangplank, Kled, and Urgot. 

Result:

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