Personal Early Line Projections:
These are what I believe the line should be not what I think the books will put it at. I will write this down before looking at the lines the books set for the day as a gauge of whether or not my expectations are in or out of line on the game. I typically weigh my own expectations a lot more because unlike in traditional sports I don't think the books know what they're doing or they just let an algorithm set their lines.
Team Vitality -138 (58%) @ Giants Gaming
Splyce -150 (60%) @ Unicorns of Love
G2 eSports -233 (70%) @ Team ROCCAT
Fnatic -400 (80%) @ H2K
Misfits Gaming -122 (55%) @ FC Schalke 04
These are where I have these lines set at and the only one I think needs some explanation is the Misfits/S04 line. I'm basically cooking the "is Upset playing?" variance as well as side selection into that 55%. In reality I think these teams are extremely close and this could be a pick 'em.
EU LCS February 16th Schedule (Week 5 Day 1):
Team Vitality -208 @ Giants Gaming +154
Splyce -200 @ Unicorns of Love +148
G2 eSports -263 @ Team ROCCAT +183
Fnatic -357 @ H2k +248
FC Schalke 04 +110 @ Misfits Gaming -147
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Moneyline: Giants Gaming +154 (1 unit)
(UPDATE: Added 5 units @ -200 after the GP kills in bottom at 21 minutes. Just barely missed out on -167)
This is actually an intriguing game. Both teams are coming off losses to the bottom two teams in the league and both had 0-2 weeks overall. I had this line at -138 for Team Vitality but I would have understood seeing anything up to maybe around 180 so this -208 feels a little bit off to me. Perhaps still riding the high of the 7-1 start. These are two really even teams. I had them finishing 5th and 6th and while I had Vitality a tier above Giants, they're relatively close in individual player skill. The reality of the situation to me is that the European LCS appears to have "solved" both of these teams so it's going to be a matter of who can adjust and attack from a different angle.
I don't have any particularly strong feelings from a psychological or strategic viewpoint and the current form of these teams is not represented by their statistics so that paints an inaccurate picture as well. Vitality look to play up tempo around the mid lane while Giants invest in top side and prefer to slow games down to a crawl when they can. Both strategies can work although I'd wager that the mid centric identity is stronger on Patch 8.3. This is simply a wager on stronger regression. I had Vitality taking a 4-5 record out of the second half and I still feel that's where they'll end up. In order for that to happen they'll likely need to drop a game or two to a couple of mid tier teams and I think Giants is a good candidate to do that. Vitality is also winless on blue side (0-1) which I assume is where Giants will put them to secure a solo lane counterpick. Vitality is all about tempo and teams have had success by picking defensive picks like Galio and Gangplank to thwart their early aggression. They could potentially ban those out but I'm not sure in what kind of place that leaves their draft at that point. It's not like there aren't other strong counteraggression picks like Tahm Kench, Vladimir, Ekko, Shen, and more. It's fairly weak reasoning so with it comes a weaker wager of the one unit gut feeling.
Result: WIN (+2.54 units)
Result: WIN (+7.5 units)
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Moneyline: Splyce -200 (2 units)
So I had this line at -150, a 60-40ish split because while I do think Splyce is the better team, they've been extremely one dimensional and this patch does not help their slow-paced, scaling playstyle. It's not that detrimental but it's going to affect things. I'm trying to find a happy medium between "cold blanketing" Unicorns uncharacteristic win last week and Splyce looking good against Fnatic but still being a slow, one dimensional team. With side selection for counterpick and a faster, slightly bloodier metagame on this patch I want to give the edge to Unicorns but I think this team is just bad. They have a mid laner that's been overperforming all season, haven't beaten anybody except H2K and a Giants team that didn't show up to play last week. Splyce on the other hand have only lost to Fnatic, Vitality, G2, ROCCAT and Fnatic a 2nd time. They've done a good job of dispatching the bad teams. I'm moderately confident Splyce will win but I'm going to keep this one at a tame two units. I just don't think UoL is that good and I'm not going to be lulled into the whole narrative that they've "turned over a new leaf" or "have some confidence now."
Result: LOSS
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Moneyline: G2 eSports -263 (3 units)
This ROCCAT squad perplexes me. They looked great against Schalke, although they were using subs so take that for what you will, but they looked terrible against H2k. All season long they've been doing this weird back and forth between looking like a playoff team and looking ugly. They get side selection in this game for their potent 1-3-1 but I'm just looking at G2 and thinking they are hitting their stride now, completely destroyed Vitality last week and took care of business against Misfits in under 37 minutes. G2 and Fnatic are a cut above the rest of Europe and in my mid season tiers I had ROCCAT in 8th place because they appeared significantly better than their record due to a few crazy baron steal comeback games but they are a competitive, scrappy team that plays weirdly enough and with excellent macro to throw teams off. The question is which ROCCAT shows up. If the bad ROCCAT does G2 is good enough to just win on the first mistake. If the good ROCCAT shows up then G2 still wins maybe 60% of those matchups with ROCCAT playing at their very best. If you figure ROCCAT as a 50/50 type of team that would lose 60-40 to the good version of G2 this line should average out somewhere between 70-80% in G2's favor but I'm going to cook some of the best of one variance into it which is why I left it at 70% or -233. The books have it at -263 which isn't too far off. I like the favorites for three units here. ROCCAT are competitive but they aren't good. The shift in the mid lane meta also favors Perkz quite a bit which is terrifying for the rest of Europe.
Result: WIN (+4.14 units)
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Moneyline: Fnatic -357 (4 units)
Fnatic are riding a 6 game winning streak and appear to have finally found themselves. For added motivation they lost the first time they faced H2K in embarassing fashion so you can expect the boys in orange and black to want to lay a beat down on H2K. That being said H2K have looked significantly better with Shook and Selfie going 2-0 last week and suddenly appearing to have some direction and macro game that was severely lacking before. However, it is difficult to game plan for a team that changes so when suddenly you're facing Shook and Selfie who you haven't seen in a long time, you don't really know what to expect from what they've worked on. Teams now have some film and the cat is out of the bag so to speak. Similarly to Perkz, this metagame shift to include Viktor serves to help Caps as well. While H2K look better and perhaps need to be moved out of the dumpster fire tier, this still isn't a good team and too many people will be riding high coming off of last week's 2-0. As mentioned in the last game, Fnatic and G2 look to be a cut above the rest of Europe and while they're not immune to a loss I'm willing to lay a very confident 4 units on the favorites here.
Result: WIN (+5.12 units)
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Moneyline: Schalke 04 +110 (1 unit)
I had these teams finishing 3rd and 4th by seasons end and, assuming all players are playing, this should be a really great and competitive match. Schalke have the higher upside and stronger individual players and have looked excellent when their full lineup is playing but that's the exact problem here. I'd probably play this for 2 units if I knew for sure that both the ful lineup is playing and that this back and forth hasn't completely jostled their confidence. I think the combination of needing the win more, Upset looking to prove his worth, Nukeduck quietly being one of the best players in Europe this season, Vizicsacsi and Pride being able to match the top centric style of Alphari and Maxlore's teams, and a bot lane that can do the same gives Schalke have a slight edge but you could tell the exact same story the other way around. These factors and side choice make me like the underdog for a unit but I'll be keeping an eye on this line movement. I might add one more if it moves up. This should be a great match.
Result: LOSS
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League Masters Series (Taiwan)
G-Rex (-278, -1.5 @ +110, M1 -164, M2 -164, M3 -164)
@ (Over/Under 35:00, Total Kills 21.5)
AHQ eSports (+185, +1.5 @ -137, M1 +150, M2 +147, M3 +147)
Machi eSports (+250, +1.5 @ -116, M1 -208, M2 -217, M3 -217)
@ (Over/Under 35:00, Total Kills 20.5)
Flash Wolves (-400, -1.5 @ -116, M1 -250, M2 -250, M3 -250)
Moneyline: Machi eSports +1.5 @ -116 (1 unit)
I only watch the LMS once in awhile and usually just the top teams but while watching those top teams I've met Machi eSports. They seem to always play the top teams closely and smash lower level teams which makes me think they may be better than their record. Upon closer evaluation I watched an incredibly lucky baron steal by J-Team start a comeback to in a game they were being absolutely demolished in and a game two that went swiftly and decisively in Machi's favor. This team should have 2-0'd the 2nd place team in the LMS, a region that has historically had two dominant teams, a decent third team and then a huge drop off to the rest of the field. I'm limiting my exposure here because I don't completely follow everything but Flash Wolves have dropped individual games to bottom of the table teams. The counterpoint is that they absolutely smashed second place G-Rex but I'm willing to put a unit on Machi who have looked like a solid team (with the best jungler in the LMS also) with some bad luck in the handful of games I've seen them in.
Result: LOSS
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LOL Pro League (China)
TopSports Gaming (-200, -1.5 @ +150, M1 -164, M2 -164, M2 -164)
@ (Over/Under 36:00, Total Kills 19.5)
Vici Gaming (+148, +1.5 @ -208, M1 +120, M2 +120, M3 +120)
OMG (+242, +1.5 @ -115, M1 +195, M2 +193, M3 +193)
@ (Over/Under 35:00, Total Kills 20.5)
Invictus Gaming (-345, -1.5 @ -118, M1 -270, M2 -278, M3 -278)
Moneyline: Vici Gaming +148 (1 unit)
Moneyline: TopSports @ Vici UNDER 36:00 Maps 1 and 2 (1 unit each)
Vici and TopSports are the two worst teams in the LPL. Both of them have exactly 1 game win and 14 losses. Both teams had their single game one against LGD Gaming. The next closest teams to these two? Funplus Phoenix and OMG who each ahve 6 game wins. Why in the actual hell is either of these teams a -200 against ANYBODY.... I'm just trying to game the system here I admit but come on now this seems like free value. I'll take my value and one of my all time favorite players Easyhoon (and his old buddy Crash). What isn't to like about a team with a guy named Martin, his support named Caveman, and sub top laner Meow... No really though why is either of these teams -200 over anybody...
Result: LOSS
Result: LOSS LOSS
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Moneyline: OMG @ Invictus UNDER 35:00 Maps 1 and 2 (1 unit each)
I've discussed it already a bunch this week but this is yet another situation where I'll be slamming the under both because of the faster patch and because both teams should be coming off break as clean and crisp as they can. Also China's average game time is 33:36 and both these team's average a game time under 35... this doesnt make sense.
Result: WIN WIN
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Parlays:
2-play Parlays: I'll be running every iteration of maps 1 and 2 in the TSG/VG and OMG/IG series for a total of 4 different wagers totaling 2 units (0.5 units each) to pay out 1.73 units each.
3-play Parlays: Same as above but tacking on Fnatic -357 for 0.5 units each to pay out 2.214 units each.Result: Lost all
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