ROX Tigers (+306, +1.5 @ -109, M1 +195, M2 +195, M3 +195)
@ (Over/Under 37:00, Total Kills 17.5)
KT Rolster (-435, -1.5 @ -125, M1 -270, M2 -263, M3 -263)
SK Telecom T1 (-104, +1.5 @ -333, M1 -116, M2 -114, M3 -114)
@ (Over/Under 38:00, Total Kills 18.5)
Afreeca Freecs (-122, -1.5 @ +236, M1 -116, M2 -114, M3 -114)
Moneyline: KT Rolster -435 (4 units)
Moneyline: KT Rolster -1.5 @ -125 (1 unit)
I actually like this ROX Tigers lineup and I'll like it more when Kuzan starts playing but it's been Lava in all but one game so I'm not sure what's going on. As it stands, ROX is the "best of the rest." They can beat the bad but struggle against elite teams. ROX have match victories over Kongdoo and BBQ and have losses against SKT, where they took one game, Afreeca Freecs, and Kingzone. SKT is a mediocre team in their current struggling state, Kongdoo is bad, and BBQ are mediocre as well, Afreeca is good, and Kingzone is elite. I think KT Rolster is closer to that elite tier and on top of that they try to play up tempo, albeit to mixed results, which is how you end games before teams like ROX can get a chance to win. This should be a 2 - 0 but ROX is scrappy enough to steal a game here so we'll keep the handicap wager low.
Result: WIN (+4.92 units)
Result: LOSS, ROX were competitive in this game and managed to take one. I'm going to rewatch this before evaluating next weeks matches. Regardless this ends up almost like a push because my winnings covered most of that handicapped call.
Moneyline: SK Telecom -104 (2 units)
It'd be easy to point to Faker being the reason for at least two game losses this season but the statistics paint a different picture. He STILL leads the league in damage per minute amongst mid laners at 594, second place is Grace at 560 and Lava is third at 541, is second in effective gold per minute only to BDD, has a 83.1% kill participation, and a 29% first blood percentage. Faker is still Faker. The real question has been Blank who has been ACTIVELY BAD more or less all season. So why am I willing to put a wager on SK Telecom? Because I don't think there's any way Wolf doesn't play at either jungle or support in this game and because how often do we get to see the best player of all time as an underdog. Wolf is clearly the leader and shot caller for this team, they can't even beat bad teams without him in the game and in a dire situation I can't see Kkoma not starting him as well as Untara after a poor performance from Thal against MVP.
I'm adjusting my preseason expectation here and am going to say SK Telecom is going to finish 6th place. I know they've had two really poor losses but this team is almost certainly better than BBQ, ROX, Kongdoo, and MVP despite their struggles recently. As bad as SKT has looked I just can't bet on this team remaining this poor with the starpower they have. They've had a reasonably difficult schedule so far facing KT, Kingzone, Jin Air, and they could have won against both KT and Jin Air (and even MVP honestly). If that was the case we wouldn't be talking about "the downfall of a dynasty."
I'm going light on this wager because of recent performance but I see this once again as a "get right" situation for this team and while the Blank/Wolf vs Spirit matchup is terrifying because of Spirit's high level play recently, I just think it's about time Faker or Bang go off. I'm not saying SKT is better than Afreeca. I'm mostly betting on momentum here. Afreeca get to play Kongdoo and MVP, arguably the two worst teams in LCK, next week so I could see them "resting on their laurels" so to speak. Meanwhile SKT absolutely needs to win this match especially after an embarassing loss. They aren't going to do any stupid Nasus drafts either. Great players find ways to win games when the season is on the line and I just can't bet against Faker, Wolf, and Bang in this spot.
Result: LOSS, These games were at least competitive so I'm not completely done with SKT yet. Afreeca is a good team.
NA LCS February 4th Schedule (Week 3 Day 2):
Echo Fox -333 @ OpTic Gaming +244
Team Solo Mid -106 @ 100 Thieves -119
Golden Guardians +269 @ Team Liquid -370
Clutch Gaming +173 @ Cloud 9 -227
Counter Logic Gaming -200 @ FlyQuest +145
Moneyline: Echo Fox -333 (3 units)
I really didn't like the draft from Echo Fox in their game yesterday and while CLG played lights out for a change, I think it wouldn't have happened with a stronger composition from Echo Fox. They'll get right back on track against OpTic tomorrow.
Result: WIN (+3.9 units)
Moneyline: Team Solo Mid -106 (4 units)
TSM whooped on Golden Guardians yesterday but I loved that they kept pressure on the whole game and showed a willingness to play up tempo for a change. Before the season started I predicted TSM would finish first and while I'm on the fence on exactly first place I do think they'll be a top 3 or 4 team and I certainly don't think 100 Thieves were as I still believe they're overrated despite a couple good performances. I think TSM absolutely stomp this game and if I didn't get hit hard by my loss on my Clutch pick yesterday I'd probably go harder on this. Keep an eye on this I might update it tomorrow before games start.
Result: WIN (+7.76 units)
Moneyline: Team Liquid -370 (4 units)
This Golden Guardians team is going to struggle against mediocre and bad teams until they get a new coach and system installed which will be at least a few weeks. They weren't able to keep up with player quality so the only way they're going to win games is cheese or great coaching which might take some time. As it stands I can't see this team winning more than 4 or 5 games unless something drastic happens. I'll take the free money to the bank and eat my losses the few times they do happen.
Result: WIN (+5.08 units)
Moneyline: Clutch Gaming +173 (1 unit)
This is one of those line value one unit wagers. I don't think Clutch Gaming are favored to win this game but I do think this should be a closer spread than this. I think Clutch is only a notch down from Cloud 9 but close. Solo and Licorice have both been strong performing rookies, Lira/Febiven vs Svenskeren/Jensen is close maybe slightly in favor of Sven and Jensen, and the bot lanes to me are even with maybe a slight edge to Cloud 9 because of Smoothie. I don't think Cloud 9 is -227 good over Clutch. I could see this line being like -140 to -180 range or something but 227 is a bit too much. I'll put a unit on the other side because I think this is much closer to a coin flip and in this metagame that could happen easily despite a lot of teams seemingly figuring out how to play faster.
Result: LOSS
DRAFT KINGS:
Haven't played a ton of Draft Kings this season yet but I entered a handful of GPPs with this lineup:
Top - Hauntzer ($6400)
Jungle - Lira ($5500)
Mid - Febiven ($6500)
ADC - Doublelift ($8100)
Support - Mithy ($5200)
Flex - Huni($7100)
Flex - Bjergsen ($7100)
Team - Clutch Gaming ($4000)
Remaining Salary: $100
The idea is betting on a Clutch Gaming upset and for TSM and Liquid to dominate their games. If you wanted to go deep on GPP entries you could do this lineup with different iterations of ADC, Mid, and Jungle from Liquid, Echo Fox, and TSM. Maybe Impact if you prefer just to cover your bases but I think Huni or Dardoch are the most likely to spike a big point number of the non-carry roles in these games.
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