Afreeca Freecs (-500, -1.5 @ -143, M1 -333, M2 -333, M3 -333)
@ (Over/Under 37:00, Total Kills 18.5)
MVP (+338, +1.5 @ +106, M1 +235, M2 +235, M3 +235)
Jin Air (-150, -1.5 @ +193, M1 -133, M2 -133, M3 -133)
@ (Over/Under 37:00, Total Kills 18.5)
ROX Tigers (+119, +1.5 @ -278, M1 -102, M2 -102, M3 -102)
Moneyline: Afreeca Freecs -500 (4 units)
Moneyline: Afreeca Freecs -1.5 @ -143 (2 units)
Afreeca are red hot right now and quite frankly look like the second best team in Korea. MVP are the worst team in Korea despite a win against a flailing SK Telecom last week. I don't think people realize that those two games are literally their only game wins this season. Now I don't think it will stay that way but I'm not sure it will be against the Freecs. However I also think this is a perfect "let down" scenario so it scares me a bit but I need to hold the course. I may or may not put something on the unders in these games as well check back later.
Result: WIN (+4.8 units)
Result: WIN (+3.4 units)
This was a pretty textbook stomping by Afreeca but man is MVP bad...
Moneyline: ROX Tigers +119 (4 units)
Moneyline: ROX Tigers +1.5 @ -278 (2 units)
Yesterday I was discussing my tier list for the LCK and I placed Jin Air alone in the A tier. After thinking about it more today I actually think ROX belong there as well. They had a rough start to the season but they've really hit a strong form in the past two weeks with victories over KSV, a game win in a competitive series against KT Rolster, and their "bad" losses were to Kingzone and Afreeca who appear to be the two best teams in Korea at the moment with a combined 20-0 game record in their past 20 games.
ROX Tigers have been masters of doing a lot with a little. Their carries are both towards the top of the league in damage dealt to champions per gold and Lava has really shown that teams are going to need to ban his Zoe as he's piloted it as well as anyone I've seen in the world despite his record. They also punch back at the right times when down in games and get as much value as they can despite lacking lane phases. Jin Air, on the other hand, have had losses to BBQ and KT Rolster and neither of those were close and their only really convincing wins have been against Kongdoo and MVP, the two bottom teams in the league. Let's not forget that infamous SK Telecom series where Jin Air easily could have lost 2-0 to an SK Telecom team that looked absolutely terrible. This Jin Air team hasn't shown the ability to win against anything above bottom tier teams unless Teddy hard carries or the game goes longer than 45 minutes. They have attempted to play up tempo but can't seem to maintain control of the macro game even when they get small advantages. I think back to a last week against KT where they showed some Taliyah play and early dives but ultimately never capitalized on their roams other than kill gold. ROX have been pushing the issue when at parity or a deficit and have shown the ability to play up tempo and still maintain control of the "big picture." They do things for a reason instead of just to do them.
I think this line was set by looking at records and metrics and not recent performance. Jin Air has only played 13 games to ROX Tigers' 19 but they are technically in 5th place because their win % is slightly higher. They also lead in most differential metrics but not by much. ROX has been the better team in the past two weeks by a fair margain and while I wouldn't have said this at the beginning of the season, Lava has performed quite well on all of the meta picks despite his teams record. As good as Teddy is, I don't think he's quite on that elite, game-altering level and Sangyoon has been quite good as well. ROX should be favored in this matchup especially with side choice, strategic versatility, better macro, and stronger performances more recently while this Jin Air team hasn't shown the ability to beat teams that are better than low tier without really flukey situations or extreme late game. I also think that Jin Air are much more likely to lose the game in the draft. They have to deal with Lava's Zoe and Galio as well as Sangyoon's Kalista and are prone to weird picks that aren't very effective themselves, especially recently. Jin Air are going to have to give up a lot of power picks. All of these factors combine to make me want to lay a large wager on ROX. It doesn't really feel right to lay so much on what I considered before the season to be a non-playoff team but they're really playing above themselves right now and I'm willing to bet they don't regress back to expectation quite yet.
Result: WIN (+8.76 units)
Result: WIN (+2.72 units)
This honestly could have been a 2-0. ROX got fairly unlucky in game 1 and ended up losing it but they had MASSIVE leads in all three of these games. They aren't an elite team as they've shown some tendency to throw leads but this is a team that attacks no matter the opponent and know how to play uptempo even if the execution isn't always perfect. ROX have honestly impressed me so far this season, Lava continues to impress despite a few mental errors (Read: THROWS). It might just be the case this season that ROX could make playoffs.
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