Afreeca Freecs (-250, -1.5 @ -105, M1 -192, M2 -192, M3 -192)
@ (Over/Under 37:00, Total Kills 17.5)
Jin Air Green Wings (+177, +1.5 @ -128, M1 +140, M2 +140, M3 +140)
ROX Tigers (-250, -1.5 @ -102, M1 -213, M2 -217, M3 -200)
@ (Over/Under 37:00, Total Kills 18.5)
MVP (+182, +1.5 @ -132, M1 +153, M2 +156, M3 +145)
Personal Line Projections:
These are what I believe the line should be not what I think the books will put it at. I will write this down before looking at the lines the books set for the day as a gauge of whether or not my expectations are in or out of line on the game. I typically weigh my own expectations a lot more because unlike in traditional sports I don't think the books know what they're doing or they just let an algorithm set their lines.
Afreeca Freecs -233 (70%) @ Jin Air Green Wings (30%)
ROX Tigers -300 (75%) @ MVP (25%)
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Moneyline: Afreeca Freecs -250 (3 units)
Moneyline: Jin Air Green Wings +1.5 @ -128 (1 unit)
Moneyline: Map 1 and Map 2 UNDER 37:00 (0.5 units each)
This match seems way too much like "easy money" for the red hot Afreeca Freecs who currently look like the second best team in the world. The entire lineup is performing well and they've put a variety of styles on display for us to see. They're crushing bad teams and beating some of the other top teams and staying competitive in losses otherwise. Entering this match on a 10-0 game streak which is impressive but I'm here to throw a wet blanket on all of this. Their last 5 opponents have been MVP, Kongdoo, SK Telecom, BBQ Olivers, and the ROX Tigers all of which were 2-0's. Before that it was a 1-2 loss to KSV an 0-2 to Kingzone, and a 2-1 win against KT Rolster. What I'm saying is that their last 10 wins have been against weak teams and against SK Telecom the games were fairly competitive and could have gone either way despite the series ending 2-0 for Afreeca. That was the FIRST DAY Blossom played in the LCK.
Now don't get me wrong, this team is good, I even elevated them to S Tier in my LCK Spring 2018 Mid-Season "Rest of the Way" Tier List but I'm not sure they're 12-0 good especially with a week off to take away some of their momentum and give other teams a chance to catch up. Jin Air have been struggling as of late and the league seemed to have figured out their one dimensional style rather quickly. The thing is, Jin Air aren't a bad team. They aren't a great team but they're certainly not a bad team and UmTi and Sohwan have actually been overperforming in terms of laning and economy metrics. A week off can be a powerful thing for a team that was "struggling" before the break if you want to call struggling losses to Kingzone, a red hot ROX Tigers team that they managed to take a game off of, and KT Rolster.
I think Afreeca have shown that they're an S Tier team but I think a week to prepare for this match and Jin Air now in a heated middle of the pack with the ROX Tigers and SK Telecom will have them up for this match. Afreeca have been playing through the top half of the map a lot and Jin Air's top side has been quite underrated with Sohwan, UmTi, and Grace all quietly having good seasons on a losing team. I'm betting that Jin Air take a game here.
Once again I'm taking the under due to patch considerations and overall league progression of teams figuring things out and how to punish slow play. Jin Air were stereotyped as the slow team but they've shown the ability to play the tempo game when they want to and I think with a week to prepare and stiff competition in the middle of the table they'll be smart and look themselves in the mirror and adapt. Another factor is that games are usually very clean and decisive one way or the other coming out of a week off when teams have time to prepare specific strategies. I'll be slamming unders all week until the books catch up.
Result: Afreeca ML LOSS
Result: JAG + 1.5 maps WIN (+ 1.78 units)
Result: UNDER 37:00 Maps 1 and 2 WIN (Total: +1.86 units)
Jin Air made a statement that they're not going to let the ROX Tigers and SK Telecom simply blow by them in the standings. My theory that they'd have a Afreeca-specific game plan prepared with the extra week was spot on and it's making me consider mid tier teams that are underdogs this week. Then again this simply could have been the loss that Afreeca had coming. They've looked excellent but unlike Kingzone I don't think anybody thinks this is a team that's already a consideration for world champion.
I'm going to continue slamming unders as I went 4-0 in them today. Tomorrow's games might test that as the Kingzone line is 35 and the KSV line is 37 but I'll be hitting them again, reasonings to come.
Result: JAG + 1.5 maps WIN (+ 1.78 units)
Result: UNDER 37:00 Maps 1 and 2 WIN (Total: +1.86 units)
Jin Air made a statement that they're not going to let the ROX Tigers and SK Telecom simply blow by them in the standings. My theory that they'd have a Afreeca-specific game plan prepared with the extra week was spot on and it's making me consider mid tier teams that are underdogs this week. Then again this simply could have been the loss that Afreeca had coming. They've looked excellent but unlike Kingzone I don't think anybody thinks this is a team that's already a consideration for world champion.
I'm going to continue slamming unders as I went 4-0 in them today. Tomorrow's games might test that as the Kingzone line is 35 and the KSV line is 37 but I'll be hitting them again, reasonings to come.
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Moneyline: ROX Tigers -250 (3 units)
Moneyline: ROX Tigers -1.5 @ -102 (0.5 units)
Moneyline: Map 1 and Map 2 UNDER 37:00 (0.5 units each)
MVP have yet to win a game this season that wasn't handed to them on a silver platter. All four of their game wins have been massive throws by the enemy team and one game where BBQ was full tilt from a 40 minute 10-0 lead that they threw and lost in a matter of 4 minutes that lead to a game two where the game ending play more or less happened at 5 minutes and then again at 7 to create a 23 minute victory. I'm not going to look into the "closing speed matters!" argument for this because BBQ more or less checked out of the game. This MVP team is bad. They never create for themselves they just sit there and hope the other team messes up and while ROX Tigers have been known to make mistakes in execution I don't think they'll make the same game ending errors as the super sloppy BBQ Olivers.
ROX have been in top form lately and honestly the week off couldn't have come at a worse time for them. It's possible it takes some of the wind out of their sails but this looks like a young and hungry team and they know they aren't good enough to take any weeks off with SK Telecom breathing down their necks in the standings.
The only thing keeping this from a 4 or 5 unit bet is the combination of the week off being unpredictable and the fact that I don't think ROX Tigers are quite an elite team. They are ready and willing but the execution is still lacking at times. They also may or may not use substitutes. 4 units is the wager I put on better than functional teams against terrible teams but I'm cooking in some variance for the week off and possibly substitutions. I'm not forgetting that ADD from MVP is the best top lane Sion player in the world and it's the strongest pick besides Gangplank and Camille which could be beneficial for them especially from blue side to draw an extra ban.
(NOTE: I'll be taking the UNDER on most of the games this week because the books have yet to adjust for the combination of Patch 8.3 and teams having a few weeks of the meta under the belts to now know how to punish certain things that weren't as clear before. With more data and a slightly faster patch the algorithms the books use are still reading the old average game times.)
Result: WIN (+4.2 units)
Result: WIN (+0.99 units)
Result: WIN (+1.86 units total)
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LCK 2018 Mid-Season "Rest of the Way" Tier List
LCK 2018 Mid-Season "Rest of the Way" Tier List
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