World 2018 Pre-Tournament Power Rankings (Tier List)
This will be my personal power rankings going into the
tournament. These do not factor in group draw or matchup strength and are
strictly attempting to look at these teams relative to each other and with my
opinions. I find that a tier list is the best way to group these teams
together. The tier is the first indicator of overall strength and ranking within
that tier will represent where I actually rank the 24 teams in list format.
These are my opinions and aren't entirely based on results
so there will be some variation in what you'd consider to be consensus. I tend
to place a lot of weight on both regional strength and strategic potential and
less on results for the year.
Only 16 teams actually make it to the main event from the starting 24. While
there are going to be a lot of hipsters out there trying to say otherwise, I
think it's reasonable to expect the NA, EU, LPL, and LMS #3 seeds to be the
last four teams in this tournament. As mentioned earlier these are
pre-tournament power rankings not necessarily the order of finish. Certain
teams have already qualified that I think might be worse than teams that
haven't. My power rankings will be the baseline for how I compare teams to one
another before diving into specifics of matchups.
The Tiers:
Tier 1 - Favorites to win the tournament, truly world class
teams that I expect to get out of groups and make a run to win the entire
tournament.
Tier 1.5 - Better than the rest of the tier 2 teams but not
quite as high a ceiling and likelihood to win the entire tournament as the tier
1 teams.
Tier 2 - Teams that I expect to get out of group stage and
could potentially give a competitive series to the tier 1 and 1.5 teams but
aren't likely to go past the Top 8.
Tier 3 - Teams with a 50% or less chance to get out of group
stage. Some of these may get out depending on group draw but require a
favorable draw and matchups to do so.
Tier 4 - Outside favorites to get out of the play-in stage
but not likely to win more than a game or two in the actual group stage IF they
get there
Tier 5 - Teams that I don't think will get out of the
play-in stage.
Some pre-rankings discussion...
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To me Korea and China both had 4.5 Tier 1 teams
and unfortunately only get to send three teams each. Unfortunately we got both
of the 1.5 teams (EDG and Afreeca). Korea had KT Rolster, Griffin, Gen.G, and
Kingzone as Tier 1 teams and Afreeca as a tier 1.5 type of team. China had RNG,
Invictus, Rogue Warriors, and JDG as tier 1 teams and EDG as a tier 1.5 team. Any
of the top four teams in both China and Korea would have been favorites above
the field to win the tournament.
- ·
China took a step forward as they historically
only have 1-2 world class teams and sometimes one other 1.5 level team to me.
With significant improvements in China I think it brings a couple new wrinkles
to this tournament. Korea always has 4-5 world class teams and now China can
compete, upping the level of competition to make all the teams in the LPL
better.
- ·
It also means that, despite improving as a whole
region, I think NA has a really long shot to do anything better than Top 8 in
this tournament because of China's new found improvement.
- ·
EU I think is slightly worse this year despite
having new kids on the block Vitality representing them. Overall the region I
think got slightly weaker relative to last year but not by much. The top teams
in Europe are still good and can compete on a world stage.
- ·
The LMS, overall, has also been downgraded to me
similar to Europe. Other than Flash Wolves, the other top teams simply aren't
as good as they were in past years and it has made the region as a whole
slightly weaker. Much like last year we don't have a competitive #2 or #3 from
Taiwan. You saw with how poorly AHQ performed last year relative to previous
years that Taiwan doesn't have the depth of competition it used to. Flash
Wolves is still a great team but the fact that they have weaker competition
works against them in my rankings.
- ·
I haven't watched a lot of wildcard regions
other than Turkey and some CIS but I don't really expect any of the wildcard regions
to make a splash this year. Every year there is a surprising wildcard squad but
I think the major region teams have finally wised up to taking these teams
lightly. Unless this patch proves to allow some really weird picks and
strategies (which it could), then I don't really see the wildcard regions
holding up or surprising anyone with more than one, maybe two game wins IF they
were to get out of play-ins.
· Generally speaking I think the tier 1 and 1.5
teams won't lose to any of the tier 2 teams in a best of five.
Now without further ado, the rankings...
Tier 1 (The Favorites)
1) KT Rolster (KR #1) - Most people will have RNG in this
slot but most people have KT next anyway. I don't think anybody would debate
that these two are the consensus favorites to win the tournament but the reason
I prefer KT Rolster is due to a combination of factors. Although RNG have won Rift Rivals and MSI as well as both
domestic splits of the much improved LPL I can't help but think the LCK teams
will show better at Worlds. They always do. Historically the Korean teams use
information better than anybody else and I feel that over the course of the
tournament they'll gain enough of an edge from this to end up the eventual
winners. On the more instinctual and emotional side of things, there is simply
something different feeling about this year's KT Rolster. They haven't been
punting games to bad teams all year and have steadily improved as the year has
progressed. They're extremely well-rounded and have four Hall of Fame level
players and debatably the best young talent on the planet in UCal. If you think
KT and RNG are the favorites to win the tournament I think looking at them head
to head is a reasonable tiebreaker and I think KT Rolster would win the best of
five.
2) Royal Never Give Up (CN #1) - As mentioned above, most people think this
isn't even a debate that RNG are the top team in the world right now. They've
been utterly smashing domestically and in international competition all year
and have even looked like they're just toying with their opponents in a lot of
games. This team is scary good. The main reason I don't have them listed as the
favorites is less to do with them and more to do with the Korean teams looking
particularly bad in international competition this year. Not that we're all
necessarily sleeping on Korea but I think we're automatically giving RNG the
nod simply because they won a couple of tournaments that the Koreans either
didn't care about or didn't show well at (perhaps both). Make no mistake this
team is excellent and I think KT and RNG are more or less equal odds in my mind
to win this entire tournament, I just prefer KT. They're the two best teams in
this tournament.
3) Invictus (CN #2) - Invictus brought RNG to five games and
have been a team that has flown under the radar to non-LPL fans all season
because RNG has taken the spotlight at all the international events. Really
until the end of Summer Split in the LPL you could argue Invictus was the best
team in the LPL and just lost a heartbreaker in Spring Semifinals to RNG in
five games. There's a really good chance we could have seen Invictus with the
top LPL seed to international events and taking those down in much the same
way. This team is just a tad snakebitten. If you look at how dominant RNG have
been both domestically and internationally then you have to respect that
Invictus have been one of the only teams that can challenge them they just
haven't beaten them yet. For about three-quarters of the year I had Invicuts as
the best team in China despite RNG winning Spring and winning the two large
international events. Invictus are severely underrated going into this
tournament especially by the "public" and I expect we can take
advantage of this misperception to get some good odds!
4) Gen.G (KR #3) - You all know how much I loathe this team.
Back to back years now they've knocked out a team that I would have rather seen
at the World Championship over them but I have to admit what I see and that's a
team that's motivated to defend their title. Gen.G looked ridiculous in the
Region Gauntlet, the best they've looked all year in fact. Coming in hot can be
bad but I think in this case the confidence will make a world of difference for
this team. I'm interested to see which players they choose to bring to the
tournament but I don't think it particularly effects where I'd rank them. Gen.G
could go back to back and if they're even 80% of the team they showed
themselves to be in the Regional Gauntlet I think they get out of groups regardless
of the group strength and make a deep run in the tournament. I don't see
anybody outside of the Top 3 teams being favored in a series against Gen.G
unless they show horribly in groups.
Tier 1.5
5) Afreeca (KR #2) - To me Afreeca were the 5th best team in Korea by the end
of the year. I thought Griffin, KT, Gen.G, and Kingzone were all stronger teams
by a decent chunk but because of these strength of the region and the fact that
this team is capable of beating higher level teams I can't push them all the
way down to tier 2. The only thing Afreeca have done wrong is not be as
absurdly individually skilled as the top four teams in their region. They're a
great team just not the class of the world. Typically teams in this spot are
really narrow but particularly good at their main strategy but Afreeca are very
well-rounded and have excellent coaching. Their preparation will be top notch
but their ability to overwhelm opponents individually is the only thing keeping
them out of tier 1.
6) EDG (CN #3) - I almost wanted to put EDG at the top of
tier 2 but they've looked stronger than they have all year in playoffs and the
regional gauntlet and that combined with the overall strength of their region
I'm going to up them to Tier 1.5 despite my gut telling me to push them down a
tier from Afreeca. EDG are much more specialized than Afreeca. They're less
versatile than Afreeca but are more individually gifted and explosive. EDG are
a team that have game winners. They have individuals that can simply take over
a game and often play aggressively to do so.
**I think both EDG and Afreeca are stronger than the rest of the field but a
cut below the top four teams hence putting them in their own half tier.**
Tier 2
7) Team Liquid (NA #1) - I wiffed hard on TSM last year
going into Worlds. I thought they were the strongest roster NA has ever sent to
Worlds and I still feel that way but I don't think Team Liquid are that much
different and I think this team has a swagger and confidence that TSM didn't
have. I legitimately think Team Liquid will get out of groups unless they rip
into some crazy group of death situation. This team isn't as one dimensional as
people think they are, they simply didn't need to show anything else
domestically in order to win. Doublelift is playing the best league of his
career and if the rest of his team shows up in a metagame where ADC's are
relatively strong they'll be a force to be reckoned with and could even go as
far as Top 4 with the right matchups. With experience, hunger, individual
talent, versatility, and great coaching I think Team Liquid are well positioned
to make the deepest run NA has ever made at the World Championships.
8) Fnatic (EU #1) - It's easy to say Fnatic always
"clutch it out" but this is a team with a lot of experience and much
like TL are well-coached and more versatile than they look. With world class
carry players a team can go far and if you subscribe to the "only as
strong as your weakest link" philosophy then Fnatic are in a decent spot
with rookie Bwipo showing well in both positions. Ultimately I think this team
does have some weaknesses that can be abused but the combination of individual
talent and experience as well as a region that, I must admit, was better than I
thought to test them week in and week out in a variety of different styles all
add up to create a team that I expect to get out of groups barring a brutal
group draw.
9) Flash Wolves (TW #1) - Flash Wolves are perennial Top 8
finishers and known as the "Korean Slayers" but they always prove
challenging to rank going into the tournament. Historically Taiwan has had two
very strong, world class teams that can test each other but last year and this
year they simply lacked that. The region isn't as strong overall as it used to
be. Years ago we had AHQ who, while not as strong, were competitive enough to
challenge Flash Wolves and the rest of the world competitors. I don't see G-Rex
or MAD Team in the same light as I saw a 2015 AHQ. These teams weren't really
challengers for Flash Wolves. As I said at the beginning of this post, I put a lot
of weight on regional strength because it breeds improvement and innovation but
at the same time I can't completely hold it against Flash Wolves because they
smashed a weaker region. If that's all they can do then it's all they can do.
It's like a Super Bowl contender smashing a bad division, you can't fault them
for doing that but you can use it to break ties. I think Flash Wolves aren't as
good as Fnatic or Team Liquid but they are better than the rest of the field.
The LMS isn't what it used to be and I don't think Flash Wolves would be
favored against any of the teams I have ranked above them and potentially even
below them depending on group stage performance.
Tier 3
10) Cloud 9 (NA #3) - Cloud 9 are red hot right now and I'm
interested to see what the down time does to their momentum. I'm also
interested to see which players they end up bringing but I don't think they're
on quite the same level as the top international teams. I'm cooking a little
bit of regression to the mean into this ranking otherwise they'd be in tier 2.
I don't think Cloud 9 are quite as good as they've been playing. I don't think
they're that much worse though and they're playing really confident right now
which means something. Cloud 9 have one of the higher ceilings of the remaining
teams especially if Jensen turns it on. Consider that they did all this without
Jensen doing what he normally does and just taking over games.
11) G2 eSports (EU #3) - I think the G2 we saw spanking the
Regional Gauntlet is closer to what we'll see at the World Championship. It's
closer to what I expected to see all year and they look like a team, much like
Cloud 9, that could be peaking at the right time. I can't put C9 and G2 higher
than this simply because their lows are very bad and they need to play at their
top end to compete internationally.
12) Team Vitality (EU #2) - This ranking might surprise some
people as I've been a Vitality hater all year long but historically speaking,
at the World Championships, teams that stick to who they are tend to do well.
Misfits did it last year, Albus Nox Luna, LMQ, AHQ, the list goes on. This is
partially a bet on Team Vitality not to defeat themselves by trying to be
something they're not. It's something that happens to a lot of teams at the
World Championship. For whatever reason when they start scrimming they get
ideas in their head and try to warp and learn to play how other teams are doing
things when the majority of the time they'd be better off just being
themselves. I don't think it's particularly likely for this team to go far but
if they catch teams off guard with their exceptional up-tempo style they could
get out of groups.
13) 100 Thieves (NA #2) - This is basically a bet on Aphro
calling a great game and 100 Thieves' macro being excellent. To me 100 Thieves
are sort of the gatekeepers to the rest of the Worlds' competition. They're
disciplined and have excellent macro play and decision making but they're not
very strategically diverse and their individual players aren't remotely on the
same level as the rest of the competition in this tournament. This is also a
nod to NA being a stronger and deeper region in my opinion and 100 Thieves
playing simple, fundamental league and still doing well enough domestically to
get a spot at worlds. 100 Thieves have perhaps the lowest ceiling of any of the
major region teams and I don't expect them to really make too much noise but I
do think they're better than the rest of the field and will serve as a good
check point for any lower teams to make a run in this tournament.
Tier 4
14) MAD Team (TW #2)
15) G-Rex (TW #3)
As I mentioned above when talking about Flash Wolves I think
Taiwan took a step down as a region this year, therefore the #2 and #3 seeds
for the LMS are getting a tier list downgrade from me. I don't think these
teams are particularly bad but based off of what we've seen of these teams
domestically as well as at Rift Rivals I have very low expectations for the
region. I might be a tier low on these and I would understand if you wanted to
argue for MAD and G-Rex to be in tier 3, after all the EU and NA teams haven't
shown much this year against the Eastern teams either but I think NA and EU are
slightly stronger regions as a whole than the LMS is and that's just my
personal read on the situation. If you're higher on the LMS then these two both
belong in tier 3. They have an incredible competitor in Flash Wolves to
practice with and play against domestically (as well as the LPL teams they
likely scrim against), so unlike the wild card regions I give them a slight nod
in regional strength but I don't expect these teams to do too much.
16) SuperMassive (TR) - After basically coasting all Summer
Split long after a dominant Spring, SuperMassive seemingly decided to claim
their Worlds spot with a strong domestic league victory in the finals. Turkey
has represented well at Worlds and although they've never had a Top 8 finish
their teams are often at least competitive and capable of stealing a game or
two. This is arguably the best team Turkey has ever sent. This team is full of
familiar names including three of the top Turkish players to ever play the game
in fabFabulous, Stomaged, and Zeitnot but also add GBM and SnowFlower of LCK
fame. This is a macro team. While they have some weird picks they don't cheese
people. They're an excellent long game team and make intelligent decisions by
playing around and for objectives over kills. They had a handful of games this
year where they were in complete control at kill deficits. They play like an
old school Korean team with a lot of discipline. I think that if we're going to
get a team from the play-in stage to truly "upset" it'll be
SuperMassive. I'm not going to put them in their own tier because they
ultimately have a lot of the same problems as the other squads in this tier and
there isn't much of a difference but this is a solid team that people will
sleep on. Turkey as a region also improved dramatically in the Summer Split
with Royal Bandits and Dark Passage making substantial improvements since
Spring to really bring some competition to a region that SuperMassive literally
went 26-2 against in Spring. Turkey also took down their Rift Rivals against
Southeast Asia and the CIS, something I won't give too much weight to but I
think was a relatively accurate representation of the overall strength of these
regions.
17) Gambit eSports (CIS) - Another collection of familiar
names and Worlds veterans line Gambit's roster heading into this years' World
Championship but I think some context is in order here. Gambit floated around
#2 or #3 for most of the Summer after winning the Spring Split and while you
could argue that they did what SuperMassive did and just coasted to the
playoffs (which I think is reasonable), they did defeat a team in Dragon Army
in the finals that pulled a tremendous upset to defeat the #1 seeded M19 in the
first round of the playoffs. They still dropped a game to the regional #4 seed.
I'm just a tad shakier on Gambit this year because of this but ultimately they
did take care of business and come to us from a region that historically has
brought us some upset kings like Albus Nox Luna. For this reason I think Gambit
are the second most likely next to SuperMassive to "upset" one of
these "shoe-ins" in the play-in stage.
18) Phong Vu Buffalo (VN) - Phong Vu are a team
that I haven't watched any games of besides their Summer finals match and
Spring 3rd place match when they were Young Generation and lost. After a
rebranding to Phong Vu and a roster shakeup they had a very strong showing in
the Summer in the VCS going 12-2 in series score and 26-8 in game score.
Vietnam has had some success on the international stage and specifically at the
World Championship with the famous Gigabyte Marines but I tend to think that
that team was an exception. This is a region that typically likes to play hyper
aggressive and can catch teams completely off guard with their style but I
think the secret is out and ever since that Gigabyte Marines run the VCS hasn't
had a lot of success with representatives internationally. In terms of style they're quite a bit different from the Vietnemese teams most international viewers have come to know. They have solid macro and great team fighting which should be good in this metagame. Phong Vu are already
qualified into the main event top 16 but I personally think there are teams
from the play-in that aren't from major regions that are better than they are.
Tier 5
19) Dire Wolves (OCE) - Dire Wolves looked excellent in
their Rift Rivals appearances handedly dispatching Southeast Asia (including Ascension)
and Japan with a perfect 4-0 record in the group stage but they did lose the
first game in the extended 3v3 series format against Mineski and it took their
teammates defeating their competition in the next three games to win it but
they did. Dire Wolves were absolutely dominant domestically in the Oceanic
League with a perfect 10-0 Summer Regular season and a decisive 3-1 Grand
Finals victory over their main competition Chiefs. If you consider that the
rest of Oceania overtook Southeast Asia rather easily in the small sample size
we have (it's important to remember this is a small sample size of best of
ones) then I think it's reasonable to rank Dire Wolves at the top of this tier
of teams unlikely to make a run for a spot in the Main Event. This is a fairly
strong International Wild Card team relative to history but with SuperMassive
and Gambit ahead of them and the major region #3 seeds ahead of them I'd be
hard pressed to sincerely give Dire Wolves a shot to get into the Main Event
although a run in the play-in stage isn't out of the question, they can
definitely steal games.
(UPDATE: With Shernfire banned and him being a crucial part of Dire Wolves success, I think they probably move to the very bottom. here)
20) Kabum! (BR) - A lot of people remember the historic
upset handed to Alliance compliments of Kabum and while Brazil has always been
one of the best of the wild card regions I just can't see it happening this
year. At Rift Rivals they went more or less even with Latin America North and
after Latin America South pulled a tremendous upset over LAN, Brazil top seeded
Vivo Keyd proceeded to drop a game to Kaos Latin Gamers. I think these regions
have learned a lot from each other and are closer than they have been in years
past. Brazil has been more competitive domestically so they have that working
for them but I just don't see Kabum doing much here.
21) Infinity eSports (LAN) - Infinity showed well at Rift
Rivals but not enough to carry Rainbow 7 against Kaos Latin Gamers. I think
LAN, LAS, and Brazil are all fairly even with a slight nod to Brazil simply for
population and server size but these regions just don't have it this year.
22) Kaos Latin Gamers (LAS) - KLG were able to take down
Brazil's top seed in a best of one in the 2v2 best of five at Rift Rivals but
were otherwise fairly disappointing. LAS is just a really small server with not
a lot of competition domestically. Their best bet is the Brazilian server but
even then it's significantly smaller than the major regions. KLG are a
surprisingly good team considering their circumstances and have always surprised
at international events but I can't in good conscious rank them higher than
anybody besides the regions I've got even less data and sample size from.
23) Ascension Gaming (SEA) - Ascension dominated this
circuit and fairly easily got in as the representative but it's important to
understand that the Southeast Asian scene is run much differently. They don't
really have regular seasons just very short tournaments. Ascension have
literally only played 22 individual games in their region this YEAR. There
simply isn't a lot of data here while most of the other wild card regions at
least have domestic leagues and longer seasons to give us a sample size.
They've also only done decently in the small sample size Rift Rivals taking a
game of Japans #2 Pentagram and losing to Dire Wolves. We simply don't have a
lot on this team and while I think teams that don't have a lot of tape for
other teams to watch can come in with a huge advantage I don't think major
region teams are underestimating
24) DetonatioN FocusMe (JP) - I'm pulling for you Japan but
the newest server hasn't done well internationally and unlike the SEA
representative Ascension, I don't think DetonatioN have the aggression to even
catch people off guard. Unlike Ascension we actually have a reasonable amount
of film on DFM compared to Ascension. Really it doesn't matter at this point as
I don't think any of these teams are going to do much but I think DetonatioN
and Ascension are the weakest teams in the entire tournament.
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I'll be doing another post about gorup stage predictions as well as a short recap of last years group stage predictions but I wanted to put my power rankings out there so people had some context on the angle from which I'll be viewing these teams. I think it gives you all a good idea of how I feel about these teams and regions relative to one another.
