Betting: April 5th (LCK Playoffs Round 2, LPL Quarterfinals, LEC Semifinals)

DISCLAIMER: 

I usually amp up my stakes for the playoffs. I feel insanely good about this entire weekend and I'm going to be doubling my wagers as I usually do for playoffs (mostly for fun). I also think best of fives decrease variance a lot so I'm willing to go heavier on lines that would normally be out of range in best of one or best of three. This will be reflected in my total tallies for the year but I'd advise cutting my wagers in half for the playoffs if you're tailing me as the extra is mostly for the thrill.

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LCK Spring 2019 - Playoffs Round 2:

We talked a lot about this matchup and how much respect we have for both of these teams on the podcast last night. The unanimous outcome we predicted was a 3-1 Kingzone victory for a few reasons. Kingzone have lost a single game in their last six matches including a 2-0 against DAMWON and a 2-0 against Griffin (although they had nothing to play for). Kingzone are the real deal people. Their only match losses this season have been to Griffin, SK Telecom 2x, Sandbox, and a weird one against Hanwha Life. Of their 13 wins all of them were 2-0 victories besides a 2-1 to Afreeca and a 2-1 to Gen.G. They aren't an impressive metrics team. They don't have ridiculously gawdy numbers to point to but they're towards the top in every category. Kingzone are just plain good and we all had them along or just behind SK Telecom behind Griffin. At this point you could honestly make a case for Kingzone being the second best team in the LCK. 

DAMWON are no slouches either. If not for an unbelievably good call by Sandbox in game two, DAMWON would have ran away with their Sylas/Akali split composition and this series would have been a 2-0 victory. To me DAMWON have an even higher ceiling than Kingzone do but Kingzone have just been so unbelievably consistent and versatile over the course of the season and across so many patches, something DAMWON can't claim.

I think DAMWON have a good chance to take a game in this series and it wouldn't surprise me at all to see them take two if they come out guns blazing in this series. They have the individual players to potentially run away with any series against any team, including Griffin but I still have them and Sandbox a tier below Kingzone. I'm placing a light wager on the Kingzone -1.5 but you should shop for lines. I've seen this as low as -190 on some books. This should be a good, competitive series even if the game score ends up 3-1.

"Gut": Kingzone -1.5 (light)

Confidence: 3.0/5 (handicap), 4/5 (ML)

Value: 0 /1.5 (handicap), 0/1.5 (ML)

Handicapped: Kingzone -1.5 maps @ -112 (1 unit)

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LPL Spring 2019 - Quarterfinal 2:

This is going to be my biggest game of the year.

Rough beats today as it turns out JDG were sandbagging hard and WE decided they'd try something completely new and stick with it even after getting whooped but anyway let's look at tomorrow's matchup....

We talked extensively about this one on the cast last night because I think for John, Kalvin, and I at least that this is going to be one of our biggest bets of the year. This line opened at -179 which is where I got in on it but I'm actually going to be adding on even at this number. Here's how this breaks down.

First of all, Haro is starting for EDG. To me this signals that EDG plan to play game one "in your face." What I mean by that is that Xiaopeng is an aggressive jungler that likes to be up in your face as often as possible disrupting you. ClearLove's primary champion pool (think Jarvan, Reksai, etc) struggle with this a lot more than Haro's more duelist/skirmish options. Haro tends to be quite good at this 1v1 counter jungling style as a matter of fact it was what he became known for. Picks like Khazix, Xin Zhao, and Camille were specialties for him. I'm a huge fan of ClearLove and he's been a huge strength for this team but I actually think this is a creative move by EDG. They get side selection in game one and if they can beat SinoDragon at their own game WITH Haro then SinoDragon are going to be completely demoralized. And having an experienced, studious ClearLove waiting in the wings to watch Xiaopeng's pathing is a huge edge for EDG even if they were to drop game one. Could this backfire? Yes. As a matter of fact in best of one and best of three I hate when teams do this type of power move but in a best of five you can psychologically end the series in game one with it. It's going to make drafting much more difficult for SinoDragon and gives EDG a huge edge in both the draft and from an overall strategic approach to the series.

EDG have a slight edge in most metrics but a rather sizeable one in damager per gold per minute which makes sense because their carries are significantly more efficient. SinoDragon are slightly better in securing first tower. We mentioned it on the cast but one of the really bizarre things to note about SinoDragon is that they've pretty much had exactly what champions they've wanted or consistently defaulted to certain picks when theirs were taken which could mean one of two things. Either they don't have that much depth or they're very one dimensional. EDG have this habit of shooting themselves in the foot when drafting which is my biggest reservation regarding this series but with how simplistic SDG's playstyle is EDG should be able to craft exactly what they want to, especially with side selection.

When you watch SinoDragon they're basically like a lesser version of FunPlus Phoenix (on the show I compared them to Diet Shasta Orange). They're not just a lesser version but a significantly lesser version. To give them their due, they are decisive, right or wrong, and good team fighters but they lack the individual talent to gain leads in lane phases and more or less have to hope their opponents mess up fights or take a fight they shouldn't. In a playoff series EDG aren't going to clown around in the draft (although I won't rule out botching one). They also aren't going to take every fight SDG attempt to start but here's the catch.... I think even if they do they can play out of it.

Perhaps the biggest factor to me in this series is that EDG can do everything SinoDragon does and more. If SinoDragon want to rough and tumble EDG can do that better. If it becomes a more disciplined, macro game EDG are going to tear this team apart. In other words EDG have the edge even playing SinoDragon's style. EDG also have the roster depth to potentially make drafts borderline impossible for SDG to win. They'll also have fresh brains to sub in if it comes to that while SDG's subs barely saw any time this season. 

I fired on this earlier this week and while researching more for it started to feel a bit less confident about it. I was talking myself out of this but after thinking about it more from a philosophical and strategic perspective I actually like EDG even more in this series. This is going to be my biggest wager of the year. I'm actually going to be a total of ten units on my plays for this game. Five each on the moneyline and EDG -1.5. I actually still think EDG 3-0 this series even with Haro starting. As I mentioned if they manage to take game one with Haro this series is over. EDG just hold all the cards here. SinoDragon are going to have to do something they haven't done all season which is completely reinvent themselves and if you consider how this team got into the playoffs, they've already pulled out all their stops while EDG have a ceiling as high as Invictus. We haven't even talked about the ridiculous value you're getting here. If you consider that the 3-0 is the most likely (or even the 3-1 if you think that's the most likely) to be getting plus odds on a significantly better team to do that is absolutely ridiculous. IF you got in when the ML was as los as -179 that's a bettable number too if you're a bit more skeptical. Everything about this screams EDG.

FIFTEEN UNIT PICK OF THE SPRING SPLIT!

"Gut": EDG -1.5 (super heavy)

Confidence: 4.5 / 5 (handicap), 5 / 5 (ML)

Value: 1.5 /1.5 (handicap), 0.5 /1.5 (ML)

Handicapped: EDG -1.5 maps @ +129 (5 units)

Moneyline: EDG -200 (10 units)

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LEC Spring 2019 - Semifinal 1:

I think this series is roughly Fnatic 3 maps to Splyce 0.75 maps. What I mean by that is that I think If we played this best of five ten times Splyce get a game in most of them. The thing is we're only playing one best of five here so you need to make a judgement call on whether you think Splyce take a game in this series or not because unless your book offers the -1.5 (mine do not but places like BetWay do!) then you're basically forced to a decision here. I was originally going to fire on the Fnatic -2.5 at plus odds but I'm feeling a tad skeptical on it. I think if both of these teams play the way they "want" to play and not necessarily how they feel they need to play then Splyce can coin flip their way to a late game victory. We've talked a lot about how when both teams draft and play to scale that it shrinks the advantages you can gain. Splyce are very good at playing proactive defense and I could definitely see a game where either both teams draft for late or Fnatic draft for early and don't get a big enough lead. 

I don't want to overrate the "Splyce are unbeatable after X minutes" because frankly I think it's not only a stupid narrative but that teams haven't equipped themselves to battle Splyce late so of course they're going to win. Don't give too much credence to that mumbo jumbo! 

Fnatic are the better team here and while I depserately want to bet the 3-0 I actually do think Splyce are going to find at least one game through one of the scenarios we talked about (or Humanoid having rookie nerves). 

"Gut": Fnatic -2.5 maps (light)

Confidence: 4.0/5 (handicap), 5/5 (ML)

Value: 0.5 /1.5 (handicap), 0/1.5 (ML)

Prop: Exact Fnatic 3-1 @ +208 (2 units)

Handicapped: Fnatic -2.5 @ +143 (1 unit)

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Parlays and Specials:

Again tail at your own risk as these are really heavy handed but hey it's playoffs and I've actually done better on parlay betting this year than none and I actually think this slate is fairly chalky so maybe we collect bigtime here. I'm going to be mixing the iterations of most of these predicted outcomes. The smaller ones I think we have a real shot at collecting some value on these huge favorites if these slates end up a little weird or favorites end up punting an extra game than we think.

(Podcast Pick of the Week!) Parlay (2): Fnatic -1.5 + EDG -1.5 @ +139 (3 units)

Parlay (2): Fnatic ML + EDG ML @ -127 (3 units)

Parlay (3): Fnatic ML + EDG ML + Kingzone ML @ +152 (3 units)

Parlay (3): FNC ML + Kingzone ML + EDG -1.5 @ +236 (1 unit)

Parlay (3): FNC ML + KZ -1.5 + EDG -1.5 @ +340 (1 unit)

et al.... combining these -1.5 and ml iterations and some -2.5s

Parlay (4): FNC ML + Kingzone ML + EDG -1.5 + G2 -1.5 @ +571 (0.5 units)

et al...

Full Weekend Major Region Parlay (6):
FNC ML + Kingzone ML + EDG ML + G2 ML + C9 ML + Liquid ML @ +667 (1 unit)(call it a hunch little extra here!)

Full Weekend Major Region EXACTA Parlay (6):
FNC -2.5 + Kingzone -1.5 + EDG -1.5 + G2 -1.5 + C9 ML + Liquid -2.5 @ +7132 (0.5 units)