Betting: April 4th (LPL Playoffs R1D1)

LPL Spring 2019 - Playoffs Round 1 Day 1:

A few weeks ago if I told you Team WE would be favored this heavily over JDG you would have looked at me like I was crazy. On this basis alone I'm half tempted to just fire on JDG. The thing is I do actually think Team WE win this series so where do we settle on this. Let's first dive into the tale of the tape before making any hasty decisions.

• Gold per Minute: Team WE: 1880, JDG 1809
• Gold Differential per Minute: Team WE +80, JDG -28
• Damage per Minute: Team WE 1874, JDG 1762
• Damage per gold per minute: Team WE 0.996, JDG 0.974
• Wards per Minute (vision wards per min): Team WE 3.4 (1.2), JDG 3.4 (1.2)
• Wards Cleared per Minute: Team WE 1.5, JDG 1.3
• Percent Wards Cleared: Team WE 45.3%, JDG 40%
• First Tower: Team WE 51% JDG 46%

If you consider that Team WE are 20-15 in game score and JDG are 20-19 these metrics more or less put both of these teams equal except for the crucial percent of wards cleared statistic. There isn't a huge edge to be gained betting the metrics here. Both teams have similar barons per game, Team WE have a lot more dragons per game which is notable. Both teams also have similar game times and kill/death totals, although Team WE have a better team KDA of 2.2 vs 1.3. 

Team WE are favored so heavily because they just laid the smackdown on JDG in their last game is one way to look at this and it's not like these teams didn't both need this win so one mailed it in. Team WE have been the much better team in the past month or so and while JDG had a few impressive wins earlier in the season they have just one match win against a playoff team since the end of February and that was against the lackluster SinoDragon while Team WE have taken down JD, TopSports, and BiliBili (who I'm going to count as a playoff team for how they were playing at the time the WE beat them, also because they're better than all these playoff teams). 

Strength of schedule isn't everything and neither is the metrics but the other reason I like WE to win this is just the eye test. As much as I hate this team they've managed to finally put it all together and have been performing quite well in the past month. They've won six in a row, fit the current metagame quite well, and Beishang has been playing out of his mind to get this team started early. In much the same way I expected Peanut to give Gen.G the much needed early boost they needed to get things started, Beishang has really done wonders for getting the leads this type of team needs to avoid the "never starting any fights and just rolling over and dying" syndrome that plagued them the last few seasons.

I love Team WE here but I also don't like the value we're getting. The bettor in me says we should be betting JD because that's where the value is but I think Team WE take this 3-1. I'm going to bet the -1.5 @ -128 for five units. I almost never bet five units on plays that I don't find a lot of value in but JDG have looked wretched and Team WE just finished up smashing them convincingly. I'm not sure JDG can turn things around in just a few days.

"Gut": JDG ML (initial thought)

Confidence: 4.5/5 (handicap), 5.0/5 (ML)

Value: 0 /1.5 (handicap), 0/1.5 (ML)

Handicapped: Team WE -1.5 maps @ -128 (5 units)

Prop: Exact Team WE 3-1 @ +221 (0.5 units)