Betting: April 19th-21st (LPL and LMS Finals)

LPL Spring 2019 - Finals

What a strange trip this LPL Spring has been. Seemingly having everything pinned down and sorted out, we were on pace to finish way up in the LPL. I thought I had finally figured the region out and then things went completely haywire in playoffs. JDG's rise to this point has been, at times, impressive. Taking down a red hot Team WE was an impressive upset but one that a lot of people certainly didn't rule out, myself included. I bet WE heavy which was a mistake because it was mostly the value that interested me however I, as well as many others, thought "There's no way they beat RNG." Well they did. And then they beat FunPlus... and we're going all the way to Idaho... YUUUUURRRRREAAAAAA!! 

While not all of you may have caught that reference you did catch that this JDG team just keeps winning. I know I've been saying "the buck stops here" against every opponent they've faced and I probably look like a dumbass by now but the truth of the matter is that JDG are STILL EXTREMELY LUCKY. There I said it. JDG are making an incredible amount of mistakes and getting away with it. I don't believe in "chaos style" or "dragging your opponents down" as much as most people do but they've certainly been doing some degree of that because RNG were off and FunPlus were TOTALLY OUT OF CHARACTER. 

That said I think we need to give some amount of credit to JDG for taking what was given to them even though they refused to accept a few gifts that were handed to them by FunPlus Phoenix and I think that's the main point I'm getting at. It takes a ceratin level of play to get to an LPL Finals for sure but this team has been straight up lucky and I'm not afraid to say that. If anything it speaks volumes about just how good Zoom is because he, Flawless, and Yagao have been hard carrying this bot lane like I do my level 2 teammates on a brand new account against bots. Imp inparticular (impparticular?) has been absolutely abysmal all playoffs long. So many pointless deaths that could have lost a game and just haven't! Sure you could argue that "well they didn't lose anything so he clearly knew they wouldn't lose anything" and that's fine. I disagree but that's fine I can't convince you otherwise. Imp has been terrible and can only improve but I'm fairly certain he's going to remain a liability.

This series boils down to one player on JDG and that's Zoom. JDG have him to thank for being here as he's been absolutely dumpstering everyone in his path in all sorts of matchups. As a matter of fact I think he should be the MVP of the LPL this split regardless of the result here. He's not only one of the best players in the LPL but one of the best players in the world at any position.... but TheShy is better....

TheShy might be the only top laner on the planet right now that I would say is better than Zoom and both of them are playing at intergalactic level. I'm not sure Zoom is going to be able to acrue the same advantages against him as he has everyone else he's played and it's for that reason that I'm hammering Invictus. Invictus severely outclass JDG in three of the remaining four and slightly outclass in the jungle. IG just obliterated TopSports in the only series they've had to play while JDG have been slugging it out with back to back five game series against RNG and FunPlus as well as a 3-1 against Team WE. Invictus have all the game film they could possibly want and the concern of "rust" from all the playoff byes was clearly not an issue as they dismantled TopSports.

This is a literal double book max bet for me. It comes out to a little more then 21 units on the Invictus -1.5. Invictus are still one of the three best teams in the world and are the class of an extremely strong LPL which speaks volumes. They have the individual advantage, they have arguably the one player on the planet that can match or potentially outplay Zoom's ridiculous level of play right now in TheShy, they have experience, more team versatility, and significantly stronger team play AND individuals across the board, all this while only playing one series in which they showed very little and JDG have played a whopping 14 playoff games worth of film for IG to study. IG have also shaken off any potential rust in their match against TopSports while JDG have to be growing exhausted both strategically and physically. Invictus just have too many game changers that can blow a game wide open.

I feel very strongly that this will be a 3-0 for Invictus and I'm betting accordingly. We aren't exactly getting a ton of value here but this is about as close to a shoebox bet as we can get. I'll note that I've missed a few of these this season but I'm as all in as I possibly can be on this match maxing out the -1.5 AND the 3-0 prop.

"Gut": Invictus 3-0 (heavy)

Confidence: 5 / 5 (handicap), 6 / 5 (ML)

Value: 0 /1.5 (handicap), 0 /1.5 (ML)

Handicapped: Invictus -1.5 @ -192 (21.5 unit BOOK MAX)

Prop: Exact Invictus 3-0 @ +158 (5 units BOOK MAX)

UPDATE: Line moved up, limit opened up, 36.5 ADDITIONAL units on the IG -1.5. 

Handicapped: Invictus -1.5 @ -200 (36.5 units)

Yes this absurd, no you don't need to tail at these weights, but I've never been more sure of a bet in my life! This is the largest wager I've ever placed.

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LMS (Taiwan) Spring 2019 - Finals

I'll first state that I've only really watched MAD Team, Flash Wolves, JTeam and AHQ matches for the regular season in the LMS but I have watched all the playoff series (coincidentally these four teams). I feel this series should probably be closer to 50/50 than it is. Flash Wolves own the regular season advantage with both match wins and a 4-1 game score. They looked shakey at times throughout the season with a few weird losses but this feels a lot to me like they're peaking at the right time after winning a slugfest against a red hot AHQ that had come in with only a few losses since mid season solidifying their roster.

I trust the machine and process here. You need to remember that this was essentially a "rebuilding year" for Flash Wolves who lost a lot of their roster so it took some time for them to come together. I'm going to put a light wager on the Flash Wolves. This is 3/4th's value and 1/4th gut feeling/eye test. I think Flash Wolves are the higher potential team and we haven't seen all they can do yet. MAD Team certainly have the strategic advantage of being able to watch all this playoff film on Flash Wolves and that's the edge here but between having their number all year WHILE growing, AND looking good against a suddenly good AHQ team, AND a full week to prepare for this match I think this line should be closer to 50/50 and thus, a small wager on the underdog or should I say the underwolves!

"Gut": Flash Wolves +120 (light)

Confidence: 4 / 5 (handicap), 3 / 5 (ML)

Value: 0.5 /1.5 (handicap), 1.0 /1.5 (ML)

Moneyline: Flash Wolves +120 (2 units)

Handicapped: Flash Wolves +1.5 @ -182 (4 units)

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Parlays:

Parlay (2): IG 3-0 + Flash Wolves +1.5 @ +309 (1 unit)

Parlay (2): Flash Wolves ML + IG -1.5 @ +232 (1 unit)

Parlay (3): KT -1.5 vs JAG (W) + FPP -159 (W) + IG -1.5 @ +269 (1 unit)

Parlay (3): Flash Wolves +120 + IG -1.5 + FunPlus -159 (W) @ +441 (1 unit)

Parlay (2): IG -1.5 + Funplus -159 (W) @ +146 (2 units)

Parlay (2): FunPlus -1.5 + IG -1.5 @ +235 (1 unit)