Friday, September 6, 2019

Betting: September 7th (LCK Regional Qualifiers, LPL Gauntlet, LEC Playoffs)

LCK Regional Qualifiers 

Kingzone +124 (+1.5 @ -180)
DAMWON -153 (-1.5 @ +140)

Over/Under: 23.5 total kills

I've been completely burned all gauntlet long by midranged favorites. Am I giving the favorites too much credit? Is momentum a factor? Maybe. Kingzone looked much better against Sandbox than they did against Afreeca but I personally think DAMWON present a different set of challenges and they've also had the opportunity to see two sets of film on this new look, uptempo Kingzone. The question here is whether or not I trust DAMWON to develop and execute a gameplan to attack it and the truth is I don't HOWEVER, I do think DAMWON have the ability to potentially just manhandle Kingzone. 

Kingzone haven't shown anything that's particularly exploitable in these series. As a matter of fact they've all played six or more different champions in just eight games, except for Deft who has played four. Different styles, different angles of attack. Kingzone have also earned first blood in all eight games so far in the gauntlet. I'm not sure there is much of a strategic edge here unless DAMWON have something spicy cooked up while lying in wait which I'd almost certainly bet they do. 

This series comes down to whether or not you think Kingzone have rediscovered themselves and you want to ride the hot hand or if you think DAMWON, with information advantage and individual player advantage showed you enough in the first two games of the SKT series to garner an amount of respect considering how dominant SKT was in playoffs. I'm going to admit that this is a gut feeling bet and I'd actually advise against tailing me unless you're willing to take on that risk. There's not really any logic or reason to it other than I'm trusting my gut. If you consider just how good SKT looked in playoffs playing two relatively close games against them has to mean something and I can't pass that up. DAMWON haven't shown that they're a team that abuses information like some others but I think they have the horses to present a different set of challenges to Kingzone. Their solo lanes could absolutely run away with these games. 

No result would honestly surprise me here but I'm trusting my gut and going with a light wager on the DAMWON moneyline. I might look into the over/under the kill total as well but check back later.

Moneyline: DAMWON -153 (2 units)

Spread: DAMWON -1.5 maps @ +140 (0.5 units)


LEC Summer 2019 - Playoffs

FC Schalke 04 +380 (+1.5 @ +177)
Fnatic -595 (-1.5 @ -232)

Over/Under: 29.5 total kills

We went over this one quite a bit on the podcast but the TL:DR here is that Schalke looked pretty bad against Rogue and Rogue isn't a good team. It was a sloppy, clown fiesta of a series in which they managed to luckily take two games they should have lost. Fnatic were on the cusp of 3-0'ing G2 and while you could argue G2 didn't show up for the first game, it's still impressive. Europe is still G2 and Fnatic and then a huge gap between everyone else. Quite frankly it wouldn't surprise me to see a 3-0 here. Fnatic should stomp this. They're a team that I could reasonably see making the top 8 at Worlds this year with how they're currently playing and the line says the same. I'm undecided on whether or not I'll lay the -232 but I probably will. I'm going to  be looking at kill spreads on this one as well but check back later.

Spread: Fnatic -1.5 @ -224 (4.5 units)

Spread: Fnatic -2.5 @ +170 (0.25 units)


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