I'll be updating the sidebar stats this weekend some time.
LPL Spring 2020
LPL Spring 2020
Week 1 Day 3 Recap
Moneyline: Vici Gaming +132 (0.5 units)
Moneyline: Dominus +405 (0.25 units)
Over/Under: DOM/IG Map 1 OVER 28.5 kills @ -118 (2 units)
Over/Under: DOM/IG Map 2 OVER 28.5 kills @ -116 (2 units)
Net: -4.75 units
Moneyline: Dominus +405 (0.25 units)
Over/Under: DOM/IG Map 1 OVER 28.5 kills @ -118 (2 units)
Over/Under: DOM/IG Map 2 OVER 28.5 kills @ -116 (2 units)
Net: -4.75 units
Obviously not a great day this morning but we did learn some potentially valuable information from both of these matches.
First, while he may of saved game two with a ballsy call to commit to killing the split push, Forge is straight up a liability until he proves otherwise. He had a situation on Irelia where the wave was stacking against him and going to crash into his tower, the support and jungle on the opposing team were unaccounted for and he decides to all-in? It's a bad idea as a melee to take an all-in into a huge minion wave to begin with, sometimes Irelia can get away with it but not in this case and it was obvious. Then to take said all-in with the support clearly making a mid roam and the jungler unaccounted for? BiliBili is pretty good, and FoFo is pretty good but some of the stuff Forge has shown so far between this match and the Demacia Cup isn't just "nerves" or "rookie mistakes." These are fundamental errors that, as far as I'm concerned, are pretty unforgivable at the professional level. Either Kkoma whips him into shape or we'll be seeing Zeka before long. Vici could be a playoff team but we discussed before the season that Forge was going to be the decider on that and thus far he's not giving much hope.
First, while he may of saved game two with a ballsy call to commit to killing the split push, Forge is straight up a liability until he proves otherwise. He had a situation on Irelia where the wave was stacking against him and going to crash into his tower, the support and jungle on the opposing team were unaccounted for and he decides to all-in? It's a bad idea as a melee to take an all-in into a huge minion wave to begin with, sometimes Irelia can get away with it but not in this case and it was obvious. Then to take said all-in with the support clearly making a mid roam and the jungler unaccounted for? BiliBili is pretty good, and FoFo is pretty good but some of the stuff Forge has shown so far between this match and the Demacia Cup isn't just "nerves" or "rookie mistakes." These are fundamental errors that, as far as I'm concerned, are pretty unforgivable at the professional level. Either Kkoma whips him into shape or we'll be seeing Zeka before long. Vici could be a playoff team but we discussed before the season that Forge was going to be the decider on that and thus far he's not giving much hope.
Second, Invictus actually 2-0'd a bad team! For those that don't know, and it's a bit of a meme on this blog, Invictus are notorious over the last few years for taking my money on -1.5 map spreads. Invictus have had only a handful of 2-0's even against bad teams during the regular season over the past few years. They often just clown around in draft or do disrespectful things on the rift and sometimes get punished for it which usually ends with them punting one of their games even though they absolutely are galaxies better than some of the teams they've punted to. Perhaps this is a new look! Invictus looked focused, clean, and absolutely dominant in every facet of the game. Dominus aren't exactly well-equipped to deal with Invictus as a lineup but I couldn't say no to +405 for a small amount on the first week. I knew Invictus looked good in their first match but the value was just too good. Also of note in this match is just how terrifying TheShy is. Natural is going to be a monster top laner and TheShy just completely obliterated him. I meant it when I said it in my tier list writeup that Rookie and TheShy are that much better than their opposition that they could conceivably carry this team even if Leyan/Ning end up being mediocre and the bottom lane also mediocre. Turns out everything is more or less firing on all cylinders right now making this team an absolute nightmare to prepare for.
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LPL Spring 2020
Week 1 Day 4
EDward Gaming -552 (-1.5 @ -120)
vs
Victory Five +339 (+1.5 @ +115)
If you want to compare these teams by tiers and look at the performances we've seen in the first three days the closest comparison is probably Dominus vs Invictus. EDG have more questions than Dominus but I also think that Victory Five might just be a tad worse than Dominus. Operating under that comparison is one way to approach this but I'm going to look more at the matchups. EDG are the better team in every single position except for ADC where I believe Y4 has the individual edge over Hope. I also think that V5's bottom lane might actually have the edge overall even though I think Meiko is by far the best player of the four in the lane this match. Hope, and more importantly EDG while Hope is starting, have simply not looked very crisp. Even when we saw them last year during games where iBoy was subbed out EDG just looked off in games where Hope played. Hope has done very little to impress me which wouldn't normally be a huge problem with all of the talent on EDG besides him but the team just doesn't feel the same. I'm hoping the more practice time he gets as the full time starter, the more chemistry can be built for EDG.
The rest of the map is no question in EDG's advantage. Last year Victory Five were one of the first adapters of the homogenized "solo" lanes with their trio of solo laners willing to swap for matchups between mid and top lane. The problem was that the players just weren't as good as the LPL talent so their versatility didn't really provide any kind of edge. There's a chance these players are a year better and improve but to me Victory Five had a weak offseason and didn't upgrade their talent nearly enough. EDG should roll the rest of this map easily.
So this comes down to whether we think the bottom lane of Victory Five can carry this team. I don't think they can. I normally love underdogs in their first game of the season because there is no telling what they'll bring out and teams don't have film on one another yet. I also like that the good teams are still figuring things out but to me there is enough of a talent discrepency here to justify laying the -120 on an EDG sweep. I can't imagine EDG remain as bad with Hope as they've shown last year and in Demacia Cup and I'm willing to pay to be proven wrong.
Spread: EDG -1.5 maps @ -120 (1.2 units)
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The rest of the map is no question in EDG's advantage. Last year Victory Five were one of the first adapters of the homogenized "solo" lanes with their trio of solo laners willing to swap for matchups between mid and top lane. The problem was that the players just weren't as good as the LPL talent so their versatility didn't really provide any kind of edge. There's a chance these players are a year better and improve but to me Victory Five had a weak offseason and didn't upgrade their talent nearly enough. EDG should roll the rest of this map easily.
So this comes down to whether we think the bottom lane of Victory Five can carry this team. I don't think they can. I normally love underdogs in their first game of the season because there is no telling what they'll bring out and teams don't have film on one another yet. I also like that the good teams are still figuring things out but to me there is enough of a talent discrepency here to justify laying the -120 on an EDG sweep. I can't imagine EDG remain as bad with Hope as they've shown last year and in Demacia Cup and I'm willing to pay to be proven wrong.
Spread: EDG -1.5 maps @ -120 (1.2 units)
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Suning Gaming -221 (-1.5 @ +148)
vs
Rogue Warriors +161 (+1.5 @ -155)
Rogue Warriors just got whooped on by eStar in one of the lowest level two games I've ever seen in the LPL. The casters tried to paint a positive picture and talk about the upcoming talent on eStar but this was an awful series by both teams and eStar still came out on top 2-0. A 2-0 isn't always indicative of the closeness of a series but in this specific case it illustrated that both of these teams aren't very good and that's the big takeaway.
Last year kind of got away from Suning. High expectations and a rough start has derailed many a teams in esports and traditional sports alike (see Cleveland Browns). Suning have parted ways with parts of last years roster in hopes of starting fresh. I think that can be a powerful thing and it shouldn't be underestimated. Suning have assembled a roster of established veterans in SofM, Angel, and SwordArt to compliment the young sophmore Weiwei and very promising rookie Bin. I didn't rate Suning very highly in my tier list rankings but I actually like this roster and, more importantly, that they're seemingly starting over fresh. Although I had them fairly low I still have Suning two tiers higher than Rogue Warriors. If Rogue Warriors showed me anything in their first series it's that they absolutely belong where I put them and that I feel so sorry for ZWuji.
Again, I usually love underdogs but Rogue Warriors were horrible and I don't see them fixing their fundamental issues in just a couple days. Give me Suning. I'm going fairly heavy on the moneyline here because we often see decent teams drop a game, especially early in the season, even though they're clearly the better side. This line is way WAY off to me. To me the only reason not to hammer this for more is because it's Suning's first game but I know for a fact that Rogue Warriors is terrible, at least right now. I'd guess we're not going to get much value against Rogue Warriors the rest of the season so I'm going to take it while I see it now even with the unknowns on Suning's side.
I'm opting to split part of my exposure to these matches over parlays. It's higher risk but higher reward. These numbers might look at little weird but the long and short of it is that instead of taking a 4+ unit wager on Suning moneyline to secure a 3 unit profit we're going to shift some of that risk to a parlay with EDG -1.5 maps in the hopes of an increased payout for what I believe to be a very likely result.
Moneyline: Suning @ -170 (3.4 units)(5Dimes)
Spread: Suning -1.5 maps @ +148 (1 unit)
Last year kind of got away from Suning. High expectations and a rough start has derailed many a teams in esports and traditional sports alike (see Cleveland Browns). Suning have parted ways with parts of last years roster in hopes of starting fresh. I think that can be a powerful thing and it shouldn't be underestimated. Suning have assembled a roster of established veterans in SofM, Angel, and SwordArt to compliment the young sophmore Weiwei and very promising rookie Bin. I didn't rate Suning very highly in my tier list rankings but I actually like this roster and, more importantly, that they're seemingly starting over fresh. Although I had them fairly low I still have Suning two tiers higher than Rogue Warriors. If Rogue Warriors showed me anything in their first series it's that they absolutely belong where I put them and that I feel so sorry for ZWuji.
Again, I usually love underdogs but Rogue Warriors were horrible and I don't see them fixing their fundamental issues in just a couple days. Give me Suning. I'm going fairly heavy on the moneyline here because we often see decent teams drop a game, especially early in the season, even though they're clearly the better side. This line is way WAY off to me. To me the only reason not to hammer this for more is because it's Suning's first game but I know for a fact that Rogue Warriors is terrible, at least right now. I'd guess we're not going to get much value against Rogue Warriors the rest of the season so I'm going to take it while I see it now even with the unknowns on Suning's side.
I'm opting to split part of my exposure to these matches over parlays. It's higher risk but higher reward. These numbers might look at little weird but the long and short of it is that instead of taking a 4+ unit wager on Suning moneyline to secure a 3 unit profit we're going to shift some of that risk to a parlay with EDG -1.5 maps in the hopes of an increased payout for what I believe to be a very likely result.
Moneyline: Suning @ -170 (3.4 units)(5Dimes)
Spread: Suning -1.5 maps @ +148 (1 unit)
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Parlays:
Parlay (2): EDG -1.5 maps + Suning ML @ +176 (0.75 units)
Parlay (2): EDG -1.5 + Suning -1.5 @ +335 (0.25 units)
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