Friday, January 31, 2020

February 1st: LEC (Europe), LCS (North America)

January 31st Recap

EU LEC: 2 - 1 (+2.75 units)
OPL: 0-3 (-0.75 units)
Parlays: 0-1 (-0.1 units)
NET: 2 - 5 (+1.9 units)

Tried our hand at a few gigantic underdogs in the OPL last night via Twitter for a few units but whiffed on all three. Small investment for some +400 range dogs on day one I don't mind the shot. Europe we nearly hit our triple dog parlay but Hylissang went full beast mode and helped Fnatic absolutely run away with the early game. Still a nice day considering the 2-5 record and we hit our GCP Pick of the Week! #DogDays

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LEC Spring 2020
Week 2 - Day 2
(all lines from Nitrogen but obviously shop around for the best you can find)

Saturday February 1st - W2D2

Excel -181 vs Misfits +123
MAD Lions -207 vs Schalke04 +147
Rogue -207 vs Vitality +147
SK Gaming +345 vs Fnatic -654
Origen +246 vs G2 eSports -369

I was on Misfits today for their first win of the season but we're going right back to fading them here. Febiven looked excellent today but even still, Misfits had a surprisingly difficult time closing this game out even with a huge lead and a snowballed Qiyana against a mediocre at best SK team that looks like they're destined for the bottom of the table. Excel had a blazing fast start in this one and, as mentioned on the broadcast, actually looked a little G2-esque for the first ten minutes of this game. It was impressive. I'll admit that I thought this Excel lineup would be decent but I perhaps slept on the fact that it's a number of veterans with a great coach in YoungBuck which should have lead me to believe in a strong start. This will lead us to have had a wager on all of Excel's first four games but we're 2-1 so far and I feel like I have a pretty good read on this team. They may even be the best of the non-elite teams and deserve to be moved up a tad in my rankings. 

Moneyline: Excel ML -181 (1.8 units)

I know what you're thinking, "Gelati, you can't quit this S04 team." Perhaps you're correct but let's take a look at who they've played so far. A slugfest against Excel, who look better than most anticipated, a loss against Origen, who look pretty damn good as well, and a stomping at the hands of Fnatic this morning in a game that somewhat got away from them early. That's arguably the #2, #3, and #4 if you asked most people right now. I absolutely love taking teams coming off of rough starts against tough schedules! Schalke are not nearly as bad as they appear. Perhaps they aren't on the level of the elite teams yet but that shouldn't really surprise us. 

AT WORST this matchup should be even money even considering the records and we're getting a +147 on Schalke? I'll take it. This is, yet again, price memory from last year/pre-season for MAD Lions. We can see that this team isn't remotely close to the bookies expectation of them and that, in my opinion, they're still being graded as Splyce from last year when they aren't the same team at all.

Moneyline: Schalke ML +147 (2 units)

Vitality are really struggling and without Milica those troubles have been exasperated. Even with him in the lineup I think this team is going to struggle for a little while much like the other rookie-laden rosters. I'm completely ignoring today's result against G2 with this handicap. G2 decided to show up today and completely dumpstered one of the weaker teams in the league. It should come as no surprise to anyone that that happened. This is more of an endorsement of Rogue who I think may be slightly underrated especially coming off of a schellacking by Origen. I still think Rogue are probably #4 or #5 and this is the #9 or #10 we're looking at with Vitality in their current form.

Moneyline: Rogue -207 (2.07 units)

G2 showed up with one of their classic menacing performances today but let's not forget it was against one of the bottom two teams in the league. G2 have showed some early game issues and the pre-game analyst desk did a really great job walking through some of them (go EU broadcast team!). Origen have historically struggled with outside of the box type teams, preferring to play "by the book" League of Legends but they've been rock solid this season with impressive performances by Xerxe and Nukeduck. I know G2 are a terrifying team but quite honestly Origen look quite good right now and I think they have a better chance of taking this game than these odds by a lot. I liked this pick on the podcast this week and that hasn't changed.

If your book has kill totals G2 was set at 29.5 vs Vitality today and it is again in this match. LOVE the under there. With competitive teams that are actually good the under tends to be a stronger play especially when it's such an inflated number. Would it surprise me to see it go over? Nah, this is G2 we're talking about, but when the rest of the slate is 23.5 or 24.5 and you see a 29.5 it's hard not to take the under especially if it should be a competitive game.

Moneyline: Origen +246 (1 unit)


LCS Spring 2020
Week 2 - Day 1

100 Thieves -102 vs CLG -141
Liquid -234 vs Dignitas +160
Immortals +329 vs Cloud 9 -535
Evil Geniuses -260 vs Golden Guardians +172
FlyQuest +246 vs Liquid -369

I'm leaning toward CLG and Golden Guardians here but I'm going to shop for better numbers. I'll update this post then. I'm only on one selection for tomorrow so far.

I typically have a limit set on best of one matches because the variance is simply too high but there are a couple exceptions every year that I'll stick my neck out for. We talked about this on the podcast but while Dignitas have looked good in their opening games, you're never going to get Liquid at this low of a number against a bottom half team the rest of the year. I was going to lay the -234 to win one unit but found a -185 at 5Dimes that I'll be slamming and including in parlays. Not only is that number way WAY off but this is in a matchup I like enough to go heavy on for my first big play in the West this season. I'll also be including it in a parlay with Cloud 9.

Moneyline: Liquid -185 (3.7 units)

I've found a -128 on CLG and I'm going to fire on it. I had a feeling this line would drop and was just waiting for it to do so. CLG haven't played a game with favorable solo lane matchups and draft is something that's an easier fix than in game problems. They've been decisive in their plays and it just hasn't panned out for them. Another week with Crown working with the team and they'll be another week better. Ryoma struggled with Jiizuke, I can't see that not being the case against Crown. 100 Thieves do have an edge on the top side of the map but I'm not sure it'll be enough here. Give me CLG in the "get right" spot. This team hasn't looked as bad as their 0-2 start.

Moneyline: CLG -128 (2.56 units)



Parlay (2): Liquid ML + Cloud 9 ML @ -112 (1.25 units)

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